Source: Top Battlegrounds – RCP Average
What do you make of this? Just a blip not to be worried about or will it be 2016 all over again?
What do you make of this? Just a blip not to be worried about or will it be 2016 all over again?
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2024.10.09 - Trump Has Edge in Top Battleground States
- Thread starter Watchmen
- Start date
Pogo
Well-Known Member
They might be right, but they have been leaning Republican consistently and I have stopped taking them seriously as their methodology is anything but clear.
Fascinating . . . because in 2016 they all leaned Clinton and were wrong.
Pogo
Well-Known Member
And RCP wasn't quite as wrong as Fox but.
Like I said, maybe they know something others don't but they have been an outlier all season and they aren't saying why.
I guess I was speaking of polls generally, not RCP specifically as RCP does not do their own polls (that I'm aware of ). Rather, they gather and average the last five (3? 10?) polls in each battleground state. In any event, I think it's super close (even though it shouldn't be) and while I think it's Harris' to lose at this point, I won't be shocked if Trump pulls it off again (like he did in 2016).
On a related note, I saw an article today that mentioned people are down on the economy even though the numbers are actually up; and we all know how goes the economy goes the election for the incumbent.
Pogo
Well-Known Member
And you should have noticed that none of the polling aggregators agree either, that said, RCP seems to always have a Republican bias even using the same polls. Just an observation .
Yes, we need to get rid of the EC and yes the economy is doing great, wages are outpacing inflation which is way down since Covid etc. It is just a massive comment on the ability of misinformation to mislead the public especially when presented in an emotional vs rational way.
Don't even get me started on Trump's economic proposals, almost every economist worth anything is saying they are going to have the opposite of their promised effect, but he says they will be great.
Wirey
Fartist
I watched a guy on the news after 2016 explaining why the polls were so wrong. In essence, he said that when people call you with a poll, the majority of those who respond are fundamentally nice people. They won't be rude for no reason. Hard-line Trump supporters don't suffer from that particular disease, and tend to tell the caller off and hang up, meaning that the extreme wing of Trump support (and I mean really extreme, like people who are coating their dogs with wax so Haitian BBQ sauce slides off) aren't represented. In most elections they don't bother voting, but Trump brings them out, and this skews the poll numbers. I always add 2% to Trump's numbers in my head to allow for this phenomenon.
Twilight Hue
Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
People are finally waking up to the immense danger and sheer incompetence the traitorous hive minded Democrat party are now posing to this country and its citizenry.
People are finally waking up, and it's absolutely beautiful to see this happening in real time.
Argentbear
Well-Known Member
Traitorous Democrats...yeah...I think we all remember how it was liberals who armed themselves and stormed the capital in an attempt to official counting of votes all the while chanting for the death of the vice president.
Guitar's Cry
Disciple of Pan
Or that half the country is extremely susceptible to conspiracy theories, racist and xenophobic rhetoric, or just really like Donald Trump for whatever reason.
Twilight Hue
Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
Not when you see the facts and the people who are a lot bigger and more informed than me stating the facts as well.
Their a lot bigger? How big are these people?
Twilight Hue
Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
What people are now seeing that the infantile shaming rhetoric and name calling and accusations and all that aren't really going to make an impact anymore because it's just the tired tactic the Democrats use all the time to try to intimidate people and now it's just failing and failing bad.
Stand up to a bully and the bully backs down.
Please repeat this over and over and over again, wherever you spot the chance. I see too little truth these days.Yes, we need to get rid of the EC and yes the economy is doing great, wages are outpacing inflation which is way down since Covid etc. It is just a massive comment on the ability of misinformation to mislead the public especially when presented in an emotional vs rational way.
Don't even get me started on Trump's economic proposals, almost every economist worth anything is saying they are going to have the opposite of their promised effect, but he says they will be great.
Argentbear
Well-Known Member
a democrat wrote post #8?
Twilight Hue
Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
It's called commentary.
Argentbear
Well-Known Member
Really? Because it looks exactly like infantile name calling, shaming rhetoric and false accusations put out to bully and intimidate people.
Twilight Hue
Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
That's because Democrats use infantile name calling shaming rhetoric and false accusations to bully and intimidate people.
What you don't want to recognize is people are finally standing up and saying they had enough of it.
Argentbear
Well-Known Member
you mean like how Trump on August 28 posted a in social media how Kamala Harris only got her job as district attorney by performing acts of oral sex?
Or his racist comment that Harris "only recently became a black person"?
or when he said the vice president was mentally retarded?
