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2024.10.09 - Trump Has Edge in Top Battleground States

Twilight Hue

Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
Exactly. So when you say "Democrats are well known for using shaming", so what? It is just speech, free speech in response to free speech.

When someone says something stupid, we should shame them and call it stupid, when someone says something racist, we should shame them and call it racist. And when they say something that is both stupid and racist, we should shame them to the max!

Like when some congresswoman says "they are controlling the weather", they should be shamed 24/7. The should be shamed and mocked. When someone elected to that high office says something that stupid, they should not be able to go anywhere without being laughed at.
It's a lot worse when people in power illustrated how bad it's gotten, but I agree you just got to have some balls and stand up to it and push it back which is why I'm saying the tables have turned because for awhile, it was working for the Democrats but not much anymore because people had hit their limits on how much bull**** to take and are pushing back.

No better example was Senator Robert Kennedy's Jr recent pushback in the chambers.

One could say the tide is turning.
 

Kathryn

It was on fire when I laid down on it.
I do. But why do you think Trump emphasizes it? And why is it a problem to you?
It's a problem to me because I don't care for most Muslims that I know, and I don't know why Trump emphasizes it for the record. I don't keep up with Trump and his insults.
 

9-10ths_Penguin

1/10 Subway Stalinist
Premium Member
That's a complete pile of bull****. Democrats are well known for using shaming among other accusatory tactics for the express purpose in shutting people up and silencing them.

It's probably a positive sign that you recognize the emotion you feel as shame when your actions are called out, but a more effective approach might be not to do things you recognize as shameful instead of getting angry at the people calling attention to them.


Robert Kennedy Jr himself made a recent statement on how those same tactics were used on him by Democrats and even some Republicans and their respective supporters to try hard to ought right censor and silence him.

Can you tell me exactly when you think RFK Jr. was "silenced?" Because I'm going through Google News and I can't find any time period without the mainstream media quoting him a fair bit.

It's not working anymore. Not for him now, not for anyone. Tables are turning.
What tables? Again: do you really think of yourself - or a millionaire member of the most politically-connected family in the US - as underdogs? You aren't raging against the machine; you are the machine... or at least one cog in it.
 

Guitar's Cry

Disciple of Pan
It's a problem to me because I don't care for most Muslims that I know, and I don't know why Trump emphasizes it for the record. I don't keep up with Trump and his insults.

It might be useful to know that the name is not specifically Muslim, but Arabic. Also, Obama isn't Muslim. He is Christian.

Given Trump's typical rhetoric involving immigrants and his emphasis on a Muslim ban, he is most likely using it to dogwhistle to those who are racist or xenophobic.
 

Kathryn

It was on fire when I laid down on it.
It might be useful to know that the name is not specifically Muslim, but Arabic. Also, Obama isn't Muslim. He is Christian.

Given Trump's typical rhetoric involving immigrants and his emphasis on a Muslim ban, he is most likely using it to dogwhistle to those who are racist or xenophobic.
Barack Obama's middle name is Hussein.

 

Alien826

No religious beliefs
Why people like Trump, I can't really understand. I can reasonably work it out, but I can't understand it. He's a terrible leader and person in general. Half the country thinks he's Presidential material, though, and I am becoming surprised that this still shocks me.

It's become tribal, I'm afraid. People don't vote on facts any more, it's just "our side" and "their side". It applies to Democrats as well, I think though Repubs are much more so. What bothers me is that, despite the fact that this has been around for a long long time, it's now got to where the Presidency is decided by a very small section of the voters, and the Electoral College only amplifies it. Biden won 2020 by (roughly) 7M out of a total of 155M. That's not a lot, even using Popular Vote numbers.
 

It Aint Necessarily So

Veteran Member
Premium Member
Source: Top Battlegrounds – RCP Average

What do you make of this? Just a blip not to be worried about or will it be 2016 all over again?
RCPs is a conservative outfit. From Wiki:

"The site has shown a conservative inclination in its content and commentary, as noted by various sources over the years.[21] In early interviews and articles, founders McIntyre and Bevan openly discussed their conservative viewpoints and criticism of mainstream media biases. A 2001 Princeton Alumni Weekly article highlighted their political leanings, and a 2004 Time article described the site's commentary section as "right-leaning." By 2009, it was considered part of the conservative media spectrum, and academic texts have described it as run by conservatives while providing a range of opinion pieces. This blend of perceived nonpartisanship and conservative tendencies has shaped its reputation and influence in political discourse."

You need to look at more than one source, especially now, when the Republican's disinformation polls are being released: Here come the junk polls, scare tactics and other things you’ll have to spend this final month watching out for.

Here are some different opinions:

[1] Fivethirtyeight averages President: general election : 2024 Polls:

1728677197654.png


**************

[2] From Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Trump And Harris Close In All 7 Battlegrounds, Survey Finds

Michigan: Harris leads Trump (47% to 45%) in a Wall Street Journal poll that includes third-party candidates released Friday, a change from the Thursday Emerson poll that shows Trump tied with Harris and from Trump’s three-point lead (50% to 47%) in a Quinnipiac poll out Wednesday—though Harris is still up 0.8 in Michigan in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Pennsylvania: Trump has a one point advantage (46% to 45%) in Friday’s Wall Street Journal Poll. Conversely, Harris leads Trump 49% to 46% in the Quinnipiac poll, but trails him by one point (49% to 48%) in the Emerson poll—a one-point gain for each candidate since the September Emerson survey found Trump up 48%-47%. Harris leads by 0.5 points in Pennsylvania in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Wisconsin: Harris holds a 1-point lead in Friday’s Journal poll, while Trump leads Harris by two points (48% to 46%) in the Quinnipiac poll, and the two are tied at 49% in the Emerson poll,. Harris is up 0.6 points in FiveThirtyEight’s average.

Arizona: Harris leads Trump (47% to 45%) in the latest Wall Street Journal Poll, while Trump leads by two points (49% to 47%) in the Emerson poll, while Trump has a 1.3-point edge according to FiveThirtyEight’s average.

Georgia: Harris leads narrowly (46% to 45%) in the Wall Street Journal poll, but Trump leads Harris 49% to 48% in the Emerson poll—nearly equal to Trump’s 1-point average FiveThirtyEight lead—after Emerson’s September survey showed him up three points (50% to 47%).

Nevada: The Journal poll has Trump up by 5 points. Harris is up one point (48% to 47%) in the Emerson survey. Harris leads by 0.8 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

North Carolina: Trump has a 1-point lead (46% to 45%) in the Wall Street Journal’s poll, a flip from Harris’ 1-point lead in Emerson’s September survey. Trump is also ahead in North Carolina by one point according to FiveThirtyEight.

********


[3] This very recent poll (updated Oct 8) shows Harris ahead by 5.

You shouldn't assume that this or any other outlier poll is accurate, although it may be. From 2024 Presidential Election Polls: Harris vs. Trump

1728691165196.png


What people are now seeing that the infantile shaming rhetoric and name calling and accusations and all that aren't really going to make an impact anymore because it's just the tired tactic the Democrats use all the time to try to intimidate people and now it's just failing and failing bad.

Stand up to a bully and the bully backs down.
It's difficult to understand how you can be so wrong and out of touch. To you, it's the Democrats who are being infantile with their name calling and it's the Democrats who are the bullies. You can't tell good people from a pathologically lying thug to whom everybody else is stupid and corrupt despite his locust intelligence and ethics.
 
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Watchmen

Well-Known Member
Premium Member
RCPs is a conservative outfit. From Wiki:

"The site has shown a conservative inclination in its content and commentary, as noted by various sources over the years.[21] In early interviews and articles, founders McIntyre and Bevan openly discussed their conservative viewpoints and criticism of mainstream media biases. A 2001 Princeton Alumni Weekly article highlighted their political leanings, and a 2004 Time article described the site's commentary section as "right-leaning." By 2009, it was considered part of the conservative media spectrum, and academic texts have described it as run by conservatives while providing a range of opinion pieces. This blend of perceived nonpartisanship and conservative tendencies has shaped its reputation and influence in political discourse."

You need to look at more than one source, especially now, when the Republican's disinformation polls are being released: Here come the junk polls, scare tactics and other things you’ll have to spend this final month watching out for.

Here are some different opinions:

[1] Fivethirtyeight averages President: general election : 2024 Polls:

View attachment 98321

**************

[2] From Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Trump And Harris Close In All 7 Battlegrounds, Survey Finds

Michigan: Harris leads Trump (47% to 45%) in a Wall Street Journal poll that includes third-party candidates released Friday, a change from the Thursday Emerson poll that shows Trump tied with Harris and from Trump’s three-point lead (50% to 47%) in a Quinnipiac poll out Wednesday—though Harris is still up 0.8 in Michigan in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Pennsylvania: Trump has a one point advantage (46% to 45%) in Friday’s Wall Street Journal Poll. Conversely, Harris leads Trump 49% to 46% in the Quinnipiac poll, but trails him by one point (49% to 48%) in the Emerson poll—a one-point gain for each candidate since the September Emerson survey found Trump up 48%-47%. Harris leads by 0.5 points in Pennsylvania in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Wisconsin: Harris holds a 1-point lead in Friday’s Journal poll, while Trump leads Harris by two points (48% to 46%) in the Quinnipiac poll, and the two are tied at 49% in the Emerson poll,. Harris is up 0.6 points in FiveThirtyEight’s average.

Arizona: Harris leads Trump (47% to 45%) in the latest Wall Street Journal Poll, while Trump leads by two points (49% to 47%) in the Emerson poll, while Trump has a 1.3-point edge according to FiveThirtyEight’s average.

Georgia: Harris leads narrowly (46% to 45%) in the Wall Street Journal poll, but Trump leads Harris 49% to 48% in the Emerson poll—nearly equal to Trump’s 1-point average FiveThirtyEight lead—after Emerson’s September survey showed him up three points (50% to 47%).

Nevada: The Journal poll has Trump up by 5 points. Harris is up one point (48% to 47%) in the Emerson survey. Harris leads by 0.8 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

North Carolina: Trump has a 1-point lead (46% to 45%) in the Wall Street Journal’s poll, a flip from Harris’ 1-point lead in Emerson’s September survey. Trump is also ahead in North Carolina by one point according to FiveThirtyEight.

********


[3] This very recent poll (updated Oct 8) shows Harris ahead by 5.

You shouldn't assume that this or any other outlier poll is accurate, although it may be. From 2024 Presidential Election Polls: Harris vs. Trump

View attachment 98332


It's difficult to understand how you can be so wrong and out of touch. To you, it's the Democrats who are being infantile with their name calling and it's the Democrats who are the bullies. You can't tell good people from a pathologically lying thug to whom everybody else is stupid and corrupt despite his locust intelligence and ethics.
Isn’t RCP pulling its averages from the same surveys you’re citing?
 

Pogo

Well-Known Member
Isn’t RCP pulling its averages from the same surveys you’re citing?
The problem is that all of the pollsters and all of the aggregators use weighting schemes as to the value of an individual response or the polls quality, time value and so even using the same reported numbers from primary polls different outcomes can be had. In the case of RCP it is not clear what weighting is used but they are from a conservative organization and observably rate their aggregates to the Republican side, may not be wrong but they are consistently leaning right in their aggregates.
 
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