A vital system of ocean currents could collapse much sooner than expected, scientists warn

[Stevicus]

A vital system of ocean currents could collapse much sooner than expected, scientists warn

Scientists have previously sounded the alarm over studies showing a rapid slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.

www.cnbc.com

• Peer-reviewed analysis published Tuesday in Nature Communications estimated that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), of which the better known Gulf Stream is a part, could collapse around the middle of the century — or even as early as 2025.
• Scientists have previously sounded the alarm over studies showing a rapid slowdown of the AMOC.
• Climate scientists who were not involved in the study acknowledged that the current has become less stable, but urged some caution in parsing the findings of the research.

A critical system of ocean currents could collapse much sooner than expected as a result of the deepening climate emergency, according to the findings of a new study, potentially wreaking havoc across the globe.

Peer-reviewed analysis published Tuesday in Nature Communications estimated that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), of which the Gulf Stream is a part, could collapse around the middle of the century — or even as early as 2025.

Climate scientists who were not involved in the study acknowledged that the current has become less stable, but urged some caution in parsing the findings of the research.

The AMOC acts like a conveyor belt of currents carrying warm waters from north to south and back in a long and relatively slow cycle within the Atlantic Ocean. The circulation also carries nutrients necessary to sustain ocean life.

A better known section of this circulation is the Gulf Stream, a wind-driven current that keeps major parts of Europe and the east coast of Florida warm, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

For one, the NOAA says England would have a “much colder climate” if not for the warm waters of the Gulf Stream.

The projected collapse of the AMOC is seen as a “major concern” because it is recognized as one of the most important tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system.

"The projected collapse of the AMOC is seen as a “major concern” because it is recognized as one of the most important tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system."

Here is a link to the study: Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation - Nature Communications

Abstract​

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system and a future collapse would have severe impacts on the climate in the North Atlantic region. In recent years weakening in circulation has been reported, but assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based on the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model simulations suggest that a full collapse is unlikely within the 21st century. Tipping to an undesired state in the climate is, however, a growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions based on observations rely on detecting early-warning signals, primarily an increase in variance (loss of resilience) and increased autocorrelation (critical slowing down), which have recently been reported for the AMOC. Here we provide statistical significance and data-driven estimators for the time of tipping. We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions.

They estimate the collapse of the AMOC around mid century.

 

[Heyo]

They estimate the collapse of the AMOC around mid century.

They are not the first. Such a scenario was suspected to happen sometime around 2010 but dismissed that time.
All current climate models assume a stable AMOC and therefore only mild repercussions of global warming in Europe (compared to the rest of the world). But if the AMOC collapses, Europe is going to be much colder on average and much dryer with more extreme weather all around.

 

[Stevicus]

They are not the first. Such a scenario was suspected to happen sometime around 2010 but dismissed that time.
All current climate models assume a stable AMOC and therefore only mild repercussions of global warming in Europe (compared to the rest of the world). But if the AMOC collapses, Europe is going to be much colder on average and much dryer with more extreme weather all around.

It seems that it's not really a matter of "if," but "when." They said the collapse of the AMOC could happen as soon as 2025, although they're estimating mid-century, while they cited another study which estimates it won't happen until the next century.