It could but preliminary information is that it's not another Black Death so it's rational to take sensible precautions.
-
Welcome to Religious Forums, a friendly forum to discuss all religions in a friendly surrounding.
Your voice is missing! You will need to register to get access to the following site features:- Reply to discussions and create your own threads.
- Our modern chat room. No add-ons or extensions required, just login and start chatting!
- Access to private conversations with other members.
We hope to see you as a part of our community soon!
Anyone worried about coronavirus?
- Thread starter Subduction Zone
- Start date
epronovost
Well-Known Member
From my understanding this virus is about as deadly as the common flu so I'm not worried and I think the mass media loves to spread hysteria over disease. Yes, it can be problematic and it can be very dangerous for people with a weaken immune system, but let's not devolve into full panic yet. This isn't even nearly as bad as the Swine Flu of a couple years back.
Augustus
…
A sensible attitude that understands real risks takes into account the unknown and the potential for exponential increases in contagion and mortality, rather than relying on the naive empiricism of comparative death tolls.
These memes are akin to those which show more people die from diarrhoea than ebola so we don't really need to worry about ebola.
We know enough about one to understand that it will kill a fairly stable number of people each year, whereas an outbreak of ebola, along with potential mutations to make spread easier could be exponentially worse. The same is true for coronavirus, we simply don't know how deadly it could be.
It is far, far better to overreact than it is to underreact, and, anyway, such 'overreaction' may actually be what helps prevent a far more deadly outbreak. The fact that a more deadly outbreak was prevented will then be cited in naive empiricist memes to show how it is more 'rational' to be concerned about everyday illnesses like flu or diarrhoea.
Something that is potentially far more virulent and deadly than flu, and that there is minimal resistance to in the population is rightly considered a healthcare emergency whereas normal flu is not.
Augustus
…
Whether individuals worry about it or not is up to them, I do want to see governments treating it very, very seriously though.
When dealing with uncertainty and asymmetric payoffs it is better to accept a certain, but very limited, downside that we can easily absorb than take the risk of an uncertain (but plausible) outcome with an exponentially worse downside that could be disastrous.
epronovost
Well-Known Member
Indeed. It's better for any government or health agency to make everything to prevent hte spread of hte disease if only to reduce costs and risks of mutation of the disease.
Cooky
Veteran Member
You're never going to believe this... Someone has the coronavirus 4.9 miles from my home, in Santa Ana, according to mapquest. I live right across the street from Angel Stadium, in Anaheim.
Coronavirus outbreak: 3rd US case confirmed in California, health officials say
Last edited by a moderator:
Howard Is
Lucky Mud
There were 40 million combat deaths in WW1.
Immediately after, there was an outbreak of Spanish Flu which infected 500 million and killed 20-50 million, including 675,000 Americans.
That was before vaccines were available. It will take up to six months to produce a vaccine for coronavirus.
https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-i/1918-flu-pandemic
Couple of cases in Bordeaux but that's over 200k away. A little concerned for the kids in school where contact is far more likely should the virus get this far.
I have a friend currently visiting relatives in HK, I'm worried for him but messages tell me he's ok and staying clear of Wuhan, but that's no guarantee.
Still, do you worry about crossing the road? The chances of that killing you is far more likely than contracting coronavirus
I have a friend currently visiting relatives in HK, I'm worried for him but messages tell me he's ok and staying clear of Wuhan, but that's no guarantee.
Still, do you worry about crossing the road? The chances of that killing you is far more likely than contracting coronavirus
Howard Is
Lucky Mud
Like winning the lottery. Odds are that you will win the major prize once every 15,000 years, but people feel they are in with a chance.
Cigarettes kill half of their users. I wonder how many smokers are worried about coronavirus ?
We are very irrational creatures.
ronki23
Well-Known Member
Statistically insignificant. Wuhan has a population of 10 million, 1500 infected, 50 dead. That means 1 in 6666 people will get it or if you believe the Chinese Doctors' figure of 90,000 infected then 1 in 111 get it.
Augustus
…
Infections can increase exponentially. We can't use current figures to assess future risk.
Yes, we treat uncertain risk with almost unlimited downsides as if they were comparable to predictable and highly limited risks
Subduction Zone
Veteran Member
I believe you. That more cases will appear is a given at this time. My small city was just the first in the US.
Subduction Zone
Veteran Member
It is a case of the known versus the unknown. I know that if I don't walk and text I am pretty safe. Even though I did find myself going over the hood of a car once. Hit and run. Small cut to my head and a little bruising. If this virus has a low rate of contagion then you are right, but we still do not know that. That unknown is why hospitals here are using extreme measures.
I understood coronavirus to be spread mostly my contact although coughing and sneezing in a confined space can spread it.
Whether this mutation is any more contagious, time will tell.
Even so, no point in worrying about it.
Shadow Wolf
Certified People sTabber & Business Owner
I am as worried about this as all the other doomsday flus and bugs I've lived through. Which is none at all.
Latest stats:
Coronavirus Live Updates: Deaths in China Reach 811, Surpassing Toll From SARS
37,198, infected
811 deaths
Subduction Zone
Veteran Member
It is getting a little bit scary.
That is a one out of fortyfive chance of dying. How does that compare to a normal flu?
Shadow Wolf
Certified People sTabber & Business Owner
Nah. CDC and WHO are saying just to take normal everyday precautions. It really seems like any other "ZOMG is gonna kill us all!" disease that does less damage and death than the regular flu.
Trying to find an article that I saw 2 days ago in the Lancet https://www.thelancet.com/ claiming that in all likelihood the situation is worse than what's being reported.