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Avi's Economics Thread

Avi1001

reform Jew humanist liberal feminist entrepreneur
Given the numbers of countries vigorously competing, having 5 in the top 16 doesn't look so bad.
And several of the foreign names there are making their cars in Americastan.

Another concern about this methodology is that they are reporting # of problems per hundred vehicles. That means radio antenna problems are reported equally to failed engines. I can guess which ones are more common in American cars, it would be interesting to see a weighted score.

And yes, it is probably the companies with more manufacturing in the US that have the lower ratings. We all know the labor problems we have with our workforce: bad attitude, lazy, cutting corners, lack of pride in product.....and this is true of both engineers and line workers. Hopefully Tesla will provide a new approach.
 
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Brickjectivity

Veteran Member
Staff member
Premium Member
Avi said:
Another concern about this methodology is that they are reporting # of problems per hundred vehicles. That means radio antenna problems are reported equally to failed engines. I can guess which ones are more common in American cars, it would be interesting to see a weighted score.
Summaries of data always have drawbacks. Maybe American cars don't have more of any particular problem this year? Do these ratings include recalled defects?

And yes, it is probably the companies with more manufacturing in the US that have the lower ratings. We all know the labor problems we have with our workforce: bad attitude, lazy, cutting corners, lack of pride in product.....and this is true of both engineers and line workers. Hopefully Tesla will provide a new approach.
Why do you say that its probably companies in the US? Tesla will not be a major player until affordable batteries go into production. That is likely to happen but not this year. For now Tesla is a big plastic box of precious lithium.
 

metis

aged ecumenical anthropologist
Toyota stock took a hit this year, but I didn't sell and it is already recovering. They have better fundamentals in place than any other manufacturer. Good quality, reasonable price, low maintenance.

It is amazing it is over 40 years since the quality revolution in the '70s and we have still not caught up to the Japanese. It really makes me wonder......???

When I was in Italy back in 2001, I was on a ferry from Naples to Palermo when I had a chance to talk to a woman who owned an assembly-line trouble-shooting company started by her father, and she said what Toyota does is to take their product and tweek it a bit here, and then tweek it a bit there next year, ...

One of the big problems with the American-owned companies is the pattern for wholesale change, which was they did extensively year-to-year back when the controlled the market here. As a kid, I remember running to the dealerships in the fall to see what the new cars looked like, and we did this year after year. However, when much is changed, much can go wrong.

Another factor is cultural, namely that the Japanese feel strongly that the company is theirs, whereas Americans tend to feel that the company is a place to work and that's it. Buddhism teaches that "when doing the dishes, there's nothing more important than doing the dishes", whereas the average American just wants to get the job done as we tend to be an impatient people.

Obviously the above is somewhat of a stereotype, but certainly not entirely so. American cars have improved significantly as Consumer's Reports has written, but we still haven't caught up.

BTW, I own a 2004 Mazda 6 that was assembled in Flat Rock, Michigan, and I got it because is was American assembled, had more American parts than most domestically-owned cars, plus I got the Ford discount. I have over 130,000 miles on it and have not had a single mechanical repair yet, knock-on-wood [hits own head three times].
 

Avi1001

reform Jew humanist liberal feminist entrepreneur
I am very pleased that the economy has improved quite a bit since this last post by Metis back in June.

Do you believe this improvement in our economy is sustainable ? Does it depend on the situation in the Middle East ? How does $4 gas affect our economy ?
 
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Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
Things look shaky to me.
- Stock prices are unrealistically high due to low capitalization rate.
- Mortgage lending loan-to-value ratios are near 100% again.
- Government still appears to have a bail-out mentality, which will affect risk taking behavior by lenders.

The price of gas looks to be no problem. We've hit $4/gal already, & it didn't trigger anything.
 

Avi1001

reform Jew humanist liberal feminist entrepreneur
Things look shaky to me.
- Stock prices are unrealistically high due to low capitalization rate.
- Mortgage lending loan-to-value ratios are near 100% again.
- Government still appears to have a bail-out mentality, which will affect risk taking behavior by lenders.

The price of gas looks to be no problem. We've hit $4/gal already, & it didn't trigger anything.

Most of the indicators are positive. Stocks are high, the NASDAQ will continue to rise. Real estate is slowing, but will continue to improve, as long as interest rates hold. Interest rates will continue to rise slowly. Government has a bailout mentality, but fortunately the blue chips are holding.

The main issue right now is stability in the Middle East. Another war would tank our economy.
 

Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
Most of the indicators are positive. Stocks are high, the NASDAQ will continue to rise. Real estate is slowing, but will continue to improve, as long as interest rates hold. Interest rates will continue to rise slowly. Government has a bailout mentality, but fortunately the blue chips are holding.

The main issue right now is stability in the Middle East. Another war would tank our economy.
I see high stock prices as enhancing instability. If the Fed raises interest rates,
the capitalization rate will rise, & stocks will plummet, possibly triggering a panic.
 

Avi1001

reform Jew humanist liberal feminist entrepreneur
I see high stock prices as enhancing instability. If the Fed raises interest rates,
the capitalization rate will rise, & stocks will plummet, possibly triggering a panic.

If interest rates rise too fast, yes, there will be a flight from the stock market, that is why the Fed keeps saying they will keep rates low. Keep your eye on gold prices, the long bond and inflation protected funds. Also, watch Tesla and Apple. No need to panic.
 

Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
What type of real estate do you have...mobile homes have fared well during the recession.
I have:
- A self storage facility (recession proof)
- Office & shop space (disaster in recession)
- A share in a retail & residential development (a difficult project to bring to fruition)
- A rental house (smooth sailing)
 

Avi1001

reform Jew humanist liberal feminist entrepreneur
I have:
- A self storage facility (recession proof)
- Office & shop space (disaster in recession)
- A share in a retail & residential development (a difficult project to bring to fruition)
- A rental house (smooth sailing)

Very cool ! You are a true entreprenuer. You should join Old
Badger and I in giving career advice to young people !
 

metis

aged ecumenical anthropologist
I am very pleased that the economy has improved quite a bit since this last post by Metis back in June.

Do you believe this improvement in our economy is sustainable ? Does it depend on the situation in the Middle East ? How does $4 gas affect our economy ?

I think we're in pretty good shape, especially as compared to most other countries, including the western Europeans. The danger signs are not so much with what's happening right now in the Middle East but any war involving Iran on any large scale could change this instantly, and $4 a gallon could be a bargain if that happens.

But we're playing a fool's game with not working on improving our infrastructure and not revamping our tax code. With the latter, if we're smart, we should significantly lower the rate, eliminate almost all deductions with the exception of those encouraging reinvestment here.

What do you think?
 

metis

aged ecumenical anthropologist
What type of real estate do you have.

My stocks have done and continue to do very well. At the worst of the recession, I was down roughly 5%, and now I'm up roughly 30% over the last 5 years. My Oppenheimer stock has done very well.
 

Avi1001

reform Jew humanist liberal feminist entrepreneur
I think we're in pretty good shape, especially as compared to most other countries, including the western Europeans. The danger signs are not so much with what's happening right now in the Middle East but any war involving Iran on any large scale could change this instantly, and $4 a gallon could be a bargain if that happens.

But we're playing a fool's game with not working on improving our infrastructure and not revamping our tax code. With the latter, if we're smart, we should significantly lower the rate, eliminate almost all deductions with the exception of those encouraging reinvestment here.

What do you think?

I think the whole Middle East is very dangerous now. It's really a shame because there is so much that could be done there. But there are also so many problems.

I agree we need to improve both infrastructure and the tax code. Remember a few years ago a bridge in Minneapolis fell ? We need to make sure that does not happen again. And build more infrastructure. Especially for energy (alternative and renewable). I am less familiar with the tax code, but I think you are right. I agree closing the loopholes makes sense. And stimulating investment in US companies.

We also need to do a better job educating the next generation about economics. I received a very weak education in this area, and it took me a long time to learn it on my own.
 

Avi1001

reform Jew humanist liberal feminist entrepreneur
My stocks have done and continue to do very well. At the worst of the recession, I was down roughly 5%, and now I'm up roughly 30% over the last 5 years. My Oppenheimer stock has done very well.

Excellent. It sounds like you have a very conservative portfolio. This is fine if it is working well for you. During the next 5-10 years a more aggressive approach might work as well. You can probably sustain 6% per year with a 50/50 stock / bond split. Do you ever listen to Bob Brinker's report ?
 
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Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
Found in today's news....
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4df99d28-4590-11e4-ab10-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3Ehvwv6c1
A “poisonous combination” of record debt and slowing growth suggest the global economy could be heading for another crisis, a hard-hitting report will warn on Monday.
The 16th annual Geneva Report, commissioned by the International Centre for Monetary and Banking Studies and written by a panel of senior economists including three former senior central bankers, predicts interest rates across the world will have to stay low for a “very, very long” time to enable households, companies and governments to service their debts and avoid another crash.
 

metis

aged ecumenical anthropologist
I think the whole Middle East is very dangerous now. It's really a shame because there is so much that could be done there. But there are also so many problems.

I agree we need to improve both infrastructure and the tax code. Remember a few years ago a bridge in Minneapolis fell ? We need to make sure that does not happen again. And build more infrastructure. Especially for energy (alternative and renewable). I am less familiar with the tax code, but I think you are right. I agree closing the loopholes makes sense. And stimulating investment in US companies.

We also need to do a better job educating the next generation about economics. I received a very weak education in this area, and it took me a long time to learn it on my own.

I took basic economics when doing my undergraduate work, but in anthropology we also study macro-economics as well, so I did as such through my graduate work and beyond. However, when our economy tanked in 2008, I found myself totally unprepared since so much had changed in the last couple of decades, so I had to hit the books. Trust me, an old dog learning new tricks ain't that easy.
 

metis

aged ecumenical anthropologist
Excellent. It sounds like you have a very conservative portfolio. This is fine if it is working well for you. During the next 5-10 years a more aggressive approach might work as well. You can probably sustain 6% per year with a 50/50 stock / bond split. Do you ever listen to Bob Brinker's report ?

Yes, both of my Oppenheimers are mutual funds, and both are fairly conservative. As far as Brinker's report is concerned, no I'm not familiar with it.

I only pay scant attention to the stock market as I'm a long-term investor who has no significant interest in day-to-day fluctuations. Also, at my age it would be foolish to take any risks, and I know of a fair number of people who got burned bad by the last recession, including a doctor friend of mine who had to go back to work because he lost so much, and he's in his mid-70's.

Recommendation: as you age, become more conservative with your investments and think more defensively.
 
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