Birthrates world wide - falling

[JIMMY12345]

Why? How big are factors like Urbanisation,cost,working Mums........Exhaustion?

Are there any positives - A high quality of life eg GDP/person could go up and less competition could be positives - so not entirely all bad news.

Japan hit the headlines today as the trend continues.

 

[SalixIncendium]

Sexual intercourse while social distancing has proven to be difficult.

 

[SalixIncendium]

As far as positives? Yes, less overpopulation.

 

[SomeRandom]

People looking for dates during the pandemic be like

 

[Heyo]

Why? How big are factors like Urbanisation,cost,working Mums........Exhaustion?

This is studied in population dynamics. Basically, you have a finite space with finite resources and an exponential growth until the limiting factors kick in and growth becomes logarithmic. There are dozens of factors limiting growth but historically the most effective are natural catastrophes, epidemics and wars.

 

[ChristineM]

Sexual intercourse while social distancing has proven to be difficult.

People looking for dates during the pandemic be like

View attachment 62683

This always makes me chuckle

 

[Secret Chief]

This always makes me chuckle

View attachment 62684

The Lovers. Magritte.

 

[Secret Chief]

Are there any positives

Reducing destruction of the biosphere? Reducing extinctions? Reducing climate change? What's not to like.

 

[exchemist]

This is studied in population dynamics. Basically, you have a finite space with finite resources and an exponential growth until the limiting factors kick in and growth becomes logarithmic. There are dozens of factors limiting growth but historically the most effective are natural catastrophes, epidemics and wars.

None of those factors accounts for the change in human birthrate, however.

What these simple biological models don't seem to take account of is that human beings make plans. It is well established that once societies achieve a certain level of prosperity (in which I include life expectancy and ability to control fertility), having children becomes uncoupled from the sex drive and becomes a decision that can be rationally planned. What then happens is people only have the children they think they can afford to give a good life to. As @JIMMY12345 mentions, the control women gain over their own lives and career ambitions also plays a role. All these things reduce the birth rate.

It is my understanding that the UN now expects the human population to reach a plateau later this century, as more people reach the prosperity threshold at which birth rate declines toward the 2.1 children per woman level needed in prosperous societies for a stable population.

This has to be good news for sustainability.

 

[Altfish]

Why? How big are factors like Urbanisation,cost,working Mums........Exhaustion?

Are there any positives - A high quality of life eg GDP/person could go up and less competition could be positives - so not entirely all bad news.

Japan hit the headlines today as the trend continues.

Main reason tends to be prosperity and health.
In the olden day (the ones the GOP and the Tories want to take us back to) infant mortality was high; you needed children to look after you in your old age, women didn't work and were just 'home makers'

 

[Revoltingest]

Are there any positives - A high quality of life eg GDP/person could go up and less competition could be positives - so not entirely all bad news.

Great news!
Less crowding, lower costs, less pollution, less paving over the natural world.

 

[Revoltingest]

The classic model in population dynamaics shows exponential growth ending with a catastrophic die off.

The "Putin Effect"?

 

[Audie]

The "Putin Effect"?

Nah.

But its not actually exponential growth

 

[exchemist]

Main reason tends to be prosperity and health.
In the olden day (the ones the GOP and the Tories want to take us back to) infant mortality was high; you needed children to look after you in your old age, women didn't work and were just 'home makers'

A bit hyperbolic.

 

[Heyo]

None of those factors accounts for the change in human birthrate, however.

That is true. But non-the-less they have historically been the most important factors for human growth rates.

What these simple biological models don't seem to take account of is that human beings make plans. It is well established that once societies achieve a certain level of prosperity (in which I include life expectancy and ability to control fertility), having children becomes uncoupled from the sex drive and becomes a decision that can be rationally planned. What then happens is people only have the children they think they can afford to give a good life to. As @JIMMY12345 mentions, the control women gain over their own lives and career ambitions also plays a role. All these things reduce the birth rate.

Of the top of my head, women's access to education and good paying jobs or the ability to run their own business is the most important factor of those controlled by humans. Even before easy access to birth control and the presence of a state guaranteed retirement.
But there are still biological factors. Stress and high levels of oestrogen-like substances in the water reduce male fertility.
To list and order all factors would be no easy task but I think there are statistics out there trying just that.

It is my understanding that the UN now expects to human population to reach a plateau later this century, as more people reach the prosperity threshold at which birth rate declines toward the 2.1 children per woman level needed in prosperous societies for a stable population.

This has to be good news for sustainability.

My guess is that catastrophes will still be the most limiting growth factor - only that the catastrophes will be man made.
And I'm not so sure about a plateau. A (steep) decline in human numbers are also a possibility.

 

[Revoltingest]

Nah.

But its not actually exponential growth

Putin's potential role is in the catastrophic decline part.

 

[Twilight Hue]

I think its this...