Brazil's incoming presidential election

[Koldo]

Let me first start by explaining how our presidential election works.
Everyone has to vote, there is a small punishment ( not physical nor jail time, if you were wondering ) if you don't. To be elected the candidate needs to achieve the majority of valid votes, as we call them. An invalid vote consists of voting in no one ( yes, you can do that, and yes, you still have to go to the voting booth to do that ). No winner-takes-all system in states, no delegates. Nothing of that, just the popular vote. That's it.

If nobody achieves the majority ( 50% of all valid votes + 1 ), then we need to vote again after 15 days, but only the top two candidates can participate this time.

With all that said and done, the voting pools have shown so far two candidates rising to the top. It is therefore unlikely anyone else will become our next president. Our pools tend to be more or less reliable when the election day is so close ( the next weekend ). So I will now introduce both of them to you and ask, based on the limited information you will be given: Who would you choose ?

The first one is Haddad. He is 55 years old. He was our Education Minister for 7 years and then after that the mayor of our most populous city ( São Paulo ) for the next four years. He is known for being a member of the Worker's Party ( PT ). That is a center-left party ( if you are from USA interpret that as being really left leaning, rather than center-left ) that had been sitting on the presidential chair all the way back from 2003 to 2016 when the then-president got impeached and the vice president took over ( he is from another political party, by the way ). PT's popularity can be attributed to its charismatic leader that has been our president from 2003 until 2011, that is Lula. Lula has always kept close ties with Unions, and Land reform movements, and during his presidency many people got out of poverty ( not strictly because of his actions, mind you ). Interestingly enough, even though PT is a popular party, some serious corruption scandals came up while it was at power. One of the latest actually got Lula into jail. The thing is: Many people want him out of jail. About a third of our population wants him to be our next president, but our law wouldn't allow it to happen. Lula is Haddad's political godfather so to say ( I love how this term can have multiple meanings and both so fitting ), and this is why he is so far ahead in the pools ( although still slightly behind the other candidate I will mention in the next paragraph ). If elected, Haddad as the next president can, in the very first day, release Lula from jail if he feels like it. The president does have this sort of power, although it can have attached costs such as losing popularity. Condemning politicians for corruption is hard enough, and if Lula gets released, it would all have been for nothing. PT never ostracizes its own politicians for corruption... As a matter of fact, it doesn't even acknowledge the corruption happened. So, if you were to vote in Haddad, expect more corruption scandals in the next four years.

Now let's go to the next candidate: Bolsonaro. He is 63 years old and a career politician. He has been a federal deputy ( a member of the lower house ) ever since 1991. However, he has always been a... no one. I mean it. Essentially no one knew him except for the fact he got a foul mouth ( Trump-ish ) and supported the dictatorship we had some decades ago. Yes, he supported the dictatorship even though he didn't acknowledge it as a dictatorship ( Yes, this candidate also doesn't acknowledge reality ). He saw a rise in popularity mostly due to the internetz ( social media ). He is a conservative, homophobic and misogynist. He is also supported by religious christians ( for the lack of a better term ) and people that would like to see a military intervention happen as soon as possible. He supports reducing taxes ( which is always a popular stand to take ), even though he hasn't really explained what cuts he intends to make ( does it sound like Trump once again ? ). He wants to privatize a lot of state owned companies and sell a lot of properties to make some money real quick. He is in favor of less government interference in the economy, and he is currently a member of a really small party. He has put forward very few ideas on what exactly he intends to do if elected though, which means a lot of people voting in him might actually get screwed by his policies. ( EDIT: I forgot to mention he also supports gun ownership which is, in practice, forbidden in Brazil. )

Now, you tell me. Which one would you prefer ?
A future filled with corruption or a future filled with surprises coming from an homophobic misogynist ?

 

[Nakosis]

Now, you tell me. Which one would you prefer ?
A future filled with corruption or a future filled with surprises coming from an homophobic misogynist ?

You might want to ask why you end up with these candidates. We in the US seems to have the same problem. We end up having to vote for whatever we see as less threatening.

Hard to find a party that would support all of the good things I'd go for.

Haddad without the corruption or Bolsonaro without the homophobia and misogyny.

 

[Koldo]

You might want to ask why you end up with these candidates. We in the US seems to have the same problem. We end up having to vote for whatever we see as less threatening.

Hard to find a party that would support all of the good things I'd go for.

Haddad without the corruption or Bolsonaro without the homophobia and misogyny.

It is a matter of charisma and ignorance.
Most people around here don't delve into politics to understand what is going on, so they just go ahead and trust whatever a charismatic leader tells them. It didn't use to be this bad though, althought it has always been like this.

In the past we used to mostly agree on the facts but disagree on how to proceed, now we disagree even on the facts ( the whole fake news meme ).

 

[Nakosis]

It is a matter of charisma and ignorance.
Most people around here don't delve into politics to understand what is going on, so they just go ahead and trust whatever a charismatic leader tells them. It didn't use to be this bad though, althought it has always been like this.

In the past we used to mostly agree on the facts but disagree on how to proceed, now we disagree even on the facts ( the whole fake news meme ).

Maybe it's because facts and feelings get confused. The media has gotten real good at manipulating feelings. Or maybe it's feelings have more power over people's choices than facts do.

So we feel "something" and go looking for "facts" that justify our feelings. Even facts that only seem like facts as long as our feelings are justified.

 

[Jumi]

I'd vote Haddad in the second round as the lesser evil in this case.

 

[LuisDantas]

I will vote for Amoedo in the first round. Unless it looks like Bolsonaro might have a shot at making it without a second round.

In any case, I will never, ever vote for Bolsonaro, under no circunstances. It would be great if that did not mean voting for Haddad, of course.

 

[Regiomontanus]

Let me first start by explaining how our presidential election works.
Everyone has to vote, there is a small punishment ( not physical nor jail time, if you were wondering ) if you don't. To be elected the candidate needs to achieve the majority of valid votes, as we call them. An invalid vote consists of voting in no one ( yes, you can do that, and yes, you still have to go to the voting booth to do that ). No winner-takes-all system in states, no delegates. Nothing of that, just the popular vote. That's it.

If nobody achieves the majority ( 50% of all valid votes + 1 ), then we need to vote again after 15 days, but only the top two candidates can participate this time.

With all that said and done, the voting pools have shown so far two candidates rising to the top. It is therefore unlikely anyone else will become our next president. Our pools tend to be more or less reliable when the election day is so close ( the next weekend ). So I will now introduce both of them to you and ask, based on the limited information you will be given: Who would you choose ?

The first one is Haddad. He is 55 years old. He was our Education Minister for 7 years and then after that the mayor of our most populous city ( São Paulo ) for the next four years. He is known for being a member of the Worker's Party ( PT ). That is a center-left party ( if you are from USA interpret that as being really left leaning, rather than center-left ) that had been sitting on the presidential chair all the way back from 2003 to 2016 when the then-president got impeached and the vice president took over ( he is from another political party, by the way ). PT's popularity can be attributed to its charismatic leader that has been our president from 2003 until 2011, that is Lula. Lula has always kept close ties with Unions, and Land reform movements, and during his presidency many people got out of poverty ( not strictly because of his actions, mind you ). Interestingly enough, even though PT is a popular party, some serious corruption scandals came up while it was at power. One of the latest actually got Lula into jail. The thing is: Many people want him out of jail. About a third of our population wants him to be our next president, but our law wouldn't allow it to happen. Lula is Haddad's political godfather so to say ( I love how this term can have multiple meanings and both so fitting ), and this is why he is so far ahead in the pools ( although still slightly behind the other candidate I will mention in the next paragraph ). If elected, Haddad as the next president can, in the very first day, release Lula from jail if he feels like it. The president does have this sort of power, although it can have attached costs such as losing popularity. Condemning politicians for corruption is hard enough, and if Lula gets released, it would all have been for nothing. PT never ostracizes its own politicians for corruption... As a matter of fact, it doesn't even acknowledge the corruption happened. So, if you were to vote in Haddad, expect more corruption scandals in the next four years.

Now let's go to the next candidate: Bolsonaro. He is 63 years old and a career politician. He has been a federal deputy ( a member of the lower house ) ever since 1991. However, he has always been a... no one. I mean it. Essentially no one knew him except for the fact he got a foul mouth ( Trump-ish ) and supported the dictatorship we had some decades ago. Yes, he supported the dictatorship even though he didn't acknowledge it as a dictatorship ( Yes, this candidate also doesn't acknowledge reality ). He saw a rise in popularity mostly due to the internetz ( social media ). He is a conservative, homophobic and misogynist. He is also supported by religious christians ( for the lack of a better term ) and people that would like to see a military intervention happen as soon as possible. He supports reducing taxes ( which is always a popular stand to take ), even though he hasn't really explained what cuts he intends to make ( does it sound like Trump once again ? ). He wants to privatize a lot of state owned companies and sell a lot of properties to make some money real quick. He is in favor of less government interference in the economy, and he is currently a member of a really small party. He has put forward very few ideas on what exactly he intends to do if elected though, which means a lot of people voting in him might actually get screwed by his policies. ( EDIT: I forgot to mention he also supports gun ownership which is, in practice, forbidden in Brazil. )

Now, you tell me. Which one would you prefer ?
A future filled with corruption or a future filled with surprises coming from an homophobic misogynist ?

Thanks for this post. What happens in your country is important for everyone and the news media in America is giving almost no information (Democracy Now! is an exception but it is not seen by many people).

I am just curious about the level of support for Bolsonaro. Is your country conservative enough for him to actually win? I always thought that the majority of the populace was at least left of center which is why for example, someone like Lula won.

 

[LuisDantas]

Thanks for this post. What happens in your country is important for everyone and the news media in America is giving almost no information (Democracy Now! is an exception but it is not seen by many people).

I am just curious about the level of support for Bolsonaro. Is your country conservative enough for him to actually win? I always thought that the majority of the populace was at least left of center which is why for example, someone like Lula won.

Bolsonaro's discourse is actually fairly left-leaning once one discounts the rage and some vague economic promises.

Both he and Lula/Haddad/PT are gaining votes mainly by promising to stop each other.

 

[Koldo]

Maybe it's because facts and feelings get confused. The media has gotten real good at manipulating feelings. Or maybe it's feelings have more power over people's choices than facts do.

So we feel "something" and go looking for "facts" that justify our feelings. Even facts that only seem like facts as long as our feelings are justified.

Honestly, it is not even the media around here.
People just trust whatever their charismatic leader says.
What the media says has become secondary to many people.
Think of Trump saying: fake news.

 

[Koldo]

I'd vote Haddad in the second round as the lesser evil in this case.

Why do you think of Haddad as a lesser evil ?
As a matter of fact, I have no idea who happens to be the lesser evil.

 

[Woberts]

Considering what you've said here, I would vote Haddad.
Please note that this is the first time I've heard about them, so this is based off the information from the OP.

 

[Koldo]

I will vote for Amoedo in the first round. Unless it looks like Bolsonaro might have a shot at making it without a second round.

In any case, I will never, ever vote for Bolsonaro, under no circunstances. It would be great if that did not mean voting for Haddad, of course.

But would you consider voting in Haddad ?
Amoedo is essentially the opposite as far as the economy goes.

 

[LuisDantas]

Honestly, it is not even the media around here.
People just trust whatever their charismatic leader says.
What the media says has become secondary to many people.
Think of Trump saying: fake news.

Many Bolsonaro supporters want to perceive him as fairly different from Trump, but if anything the resemblances keep piling up.

The appeal seems to be mainly that of an "outsider" who will "shake things up" in the political system.

That was a very naive expectation when directed towards Trump. And it is probably worse with Bolsonaro, who is after all an experienced if mediocre congressperson.

But far as I can understand the average voter, he is sick and tired of such a lack of perspective and hoping against all reason that there is some form of shortcut towards a magic solution - even if it is based in some form of brutality.

Both PT and Bolsonaro make just such a promise.

We will suffer a lot more loss and harm before we learn better.

 

[LuisDantas]

But would you consider voting in Haddad ?
Amoedo is essentially the opposite as far as the economy goes.

I will have to vote for Haddad if it comes to choosing between him and Bolsonaro.

It is an easy decision, albeit a very tragic one.

For all his many faults, Haddad at least seems to want to attain some resemblance of being an actual decision maker with some degree of success.

And he does not seem to make a point of destroying his own reputation, either.

Bolsonaro does not have even that going for him.

 

[Milton Platt]

Let me first start by explaining how our presidential election works.
Everyone has to vote, there is a small punishment ( not physical nor jail time, if you were wondering ) if you don't. To be elected the candidate needs to achieve the majority of valid votes, as we call them. An invalid vote consists of voting in no one ( yes, you can do that, and yes, you still have to go to the voting booth to do that ). No winner-takes-all system in states, no delegates. Nothing of that, just the popular vote. That's it.

If nobody achieves the majority ( 50% of all valid votes + 1 ), then we need to vote again after 15 days, but only the top two candidates can participate this time.

With all that said and done, the voting pools have shown so far two candidates rising to the top. It is therefore unlikely anyone else will become our next president. Our pools tend to be more or less reliable when the election day is so close ( the next weekend ). So I will now introduce both of them to you and ask, based on the limited information you will be given: Who would you choose ?

The first one is Haddad. He is 55 years old. He was our Education Minister for 7 years and then after that the mayor of our most populous city ( São Paulo ) for the next four years. He is known for being a member of the Worker's Party ( PT ). That is a center-left party ( if you are from USA interpret that as being really left leaning, rather than center-left ) that had been sitting on the presidential chair all the way back from 2003 to 2016 when the then-president got impeached and the vice president took over ( he is from another political party, by the way ). PT's popularity can be attributed to its charismatic leader that has been our president from 2003 until 2011, that is Lula. Lula has always kept close ties with Unions, and Land reform movements, and during his presidency many people got out of poverty ( not strictly because of his actions, mind you ). Interestingly enough, even though PT is a popular party, some serious corruption scandals came up while it was at power. One of the latest actually got Lula into jail. The thing is: Many people want him out of jail. About a third of our population wants him to be our next president, but our law wouldn't allow it to happen. Lula is Haddad's political godfather so to say ( I love how this term can have multiple meanings and both so fitting ), and this is why he is so far ahead in the pools ( although still slightly behind the other candidate I will mention in the next paragraph ). If elected, Haddad as the next president can, in the very first day, release Lula from jail if he feels like it. The president does have this sort of power, although it can have attached costs such as losing popularity. Condemning politicians for corruption is hard enough, and if Lula gets released, it would all have been for nothing. PT never ostracizes its own politicians for corruption... As a matter of fact, it doesn't even acknowledge the corruption happened. So, if you were to vote in Haddad, expect more corruption scandals in the next four years.

Now let's go to the next candidate: Bolsonaro. He is 63 years old and a career politician. He has been a federal deputy ( a member of the lower house ) ever since 1991. However, he has always been a... no one. I mean it. Essentially no one knew him except for the fact he got a foul mouth ( Trump-ish ) and supported the dictatorship we had some decades ago. Yes, he supported the dictatorship even though he didn't acknowledge it as a dictatorship ( Yes, this candidate also doesn't acknowledge reality ). He saw a rise in popularity mostly due to the internetz ( social media ). He is a conservative, homophobic and misogynist. He is also supported by religious christians ( for the lack of a better term ) and people that would like to see a military intervention happen as soon as possible. He supports reducing taxes ( which is always a popular stand to take ), even though he hasn't really explained what cuts he intends to make ( does it sound like Trump once again ? ). He wants to privatize a lot of state owned companies and sell a lot of properties to make some money real quick. He is in favor of less government interference in the economy, and he is currently a member of a really small party. He has put forward very few ideas on what exactly he intends to do if elected though, which means a lot of people voting in him might actually get screwed by his policies. ( EDIT: I forgot to mention he also supports gun ownership which is, in practice, forbidden in Brazil. )

Now, you tell me. Which one would you prefer ?
A future filled with corruption or a future filled with surprises coming from an homophobic misogynist ?

You seem to be in the same position as voters here in the U.S. You need a third choice....."none of the above".

By the way, how does the government know who voted and who did not vote?

 

[Koldo]

Thanks for this post. What happens in your country is important for everyone and the news media in America is giving almost no information (Democracy Now! is an exception but it is not seen by many people).

I am just curious about the level of support for Bolsonaro. Is your country conservative enough for him to actually win? I always thought that the majority of the populace was at least left of center which is why for example, someone like Lula won.

As I see it, the majority of the population leans to the left in economical matters and to the right in social matters.
In other words, the majority is in favor of government provided services, like "free" healthcare for everyone, but opposed to abortion, homosexuality, and drug legalization.

If Bolsonaro was to open his mouth and say what he intends to cut to make the ends the meet when he reduces the taxes he could be ruined. As it is, he can pretend he is not going to cut anything and everything will work just fine.

 

[Koldo]

Bolsonaro's discourse is actually fairly left-leaning once one discounts the rage and some vague economic promises.

Both he and Lula/Haddad/PT are gaining votes mainly by promising to stop each other.

Considering some of his promises, they don't sound left-leaning at all. Like allowing everyone to have a gun, and reducing taxes to the richest.

But yes, I agree that they are feeding on the hatred people have on the other party.

 

[Koldo]

Considering what you've said here, I would vote Haddad.
Please note that this is the first time I've heard about them, so this is based off the information from the OP.

No problem at all.
Even though Haddad and Bolsonaro have had a long road in the political world, they were pretty much unknown to most brazilians. It was only at the start of this year they began to be more known.

By the way, why would you vote in Haddad ?

 

[Koldo]

You seem to be in the same position as voters here in the U.S. You need a third choice....."none of the above".

Pretty much.

By the way, how does the government know who voted and who did not vote?

We are assigned a place to vote based on where we live and when we get there we need to show an ID with photo ( like a driver license ) and sign a list. This is how the government gets to know who voted.

 

[Woberts]

By the way, why would you vote in Haddad ?

Because I am pretty far to the left both economically and socially. I'm not a fan of corruption, but I would prefer a corrupt government that treats its citizens well to a transparent one that doesn't.