The SECOND link is the one I will focus on. It is a full length study from 2013 and I did manage to get my grimy little hands on it as well as reviews of the study and I can hopefully elucidate why I disagree significantly with their conclusion and so should you.
First, for RFers who aren't reading these studies, there are two terms worth understanding:
"persisters" - those children who persisted in having GD after going through puberty and being reassessed.
"desisters" - those children who stopped having GD on their own, without any medical interventions.
The first paragraph of this paper recounts the findings of an earlier (2011), paper that analyzed 246 children with GD, and found that in follow-up studies, 84% of them had "desisted" from having GD - without undergoing any medical interventions.
== Now on to the 2013 paper:
The 2nd paragraph discusses an additional study (done by Wallein +), on 77 GD kids in which 56 "desisted".
Original grouping is 127. Of the original group 77 continued as normal. So that would leave 80 that was considered "defectors". So far this sounds pretty bad till we break the numbers down. Of the 80 we get that number from two sources. 52 responders and 28 that didn't respond at all. So at this point we have 52 detractors, 77 maintained gender dysphoria and 28 unknowns.
Of the 52 detractors 38 didn't meet the original threshold for a gender dysphoria diagnosis in the first place. They may have been there for the diagnosis or for further followups ect. I don't know and can't say for sure. But I can say that they were not diagnosed at that time. So currently we have 14 of the original 127 that are detractors that have stated that they are trans from the beginning. Which is 9% (a far far cry from the 80 % claimed by the link).
Even from that 9% we still have to understand that the respondents were not the children themselves but the parents
I think maybe you have some typos in this section? I'm not seeing how your math works?
Also, how were you able to conclude that some of the kids didn't meet the original threshold? Is that discussed in some other paper?
So which is why I like to use studies of actual trans people and the regret rates of those that have transitioned rather than those who have backed out of transitioning in the first place. Primarily because there are also factors involved in the latter that also complicate the statistics further. The number of trans people who are 100% trans and sure they are trans but simply don't transition because of various reasons exist. A number of them that try and choose not too because of unsupportive parents exist. Those that are unable to handle the backlash from community, friends and family may go back on transitioning. None of that makes them less trans. Its just further evidence that we need to treat trans people better than we do.
Regret rates have some utility, but they also have some flaws. The main flaw is that we typically have only short time periods after medical interventions in which we're measuring regret. So a person might have no regrets for the first year or two, but we don't know how they'll feel in 5 or 10 or 20 years. This I think, is where common sense and logic has to be applied. Do you think the idea of there being a social contagion aspect to GD holds any merit? If not, what's your sense as to why we have seen such an enormous increase in kids identifying as trans? What I've heard is that "it's safer now". While that could be a factor, I do not believe it's the only one.
As for treating trans people better, I agree, with a few caveats:
- My stance on this forum over the last several months has been that people under 21 with GD should receive only talk therapy. I have been called all sorts of horrible names because of this stance, but I see this as sort of pro-children and trans-neutral.
- We MUST separate trans people from trans activism. We should treat trans people better, but the trans activists promote many dubious ideas and we must be able to criticize and push back on bad ideas.
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Lots more details we could go back and dig into more deeply, but this seems like a good sized bite for now? As always, if you want to reiterate points you want me to address, I'm happy to do so. I haven't skipped anything for nefarious reasons.