Calling It Now: 3 States Decide Our Fate

[Neo Deist]

It will come down to these three states for electoral math:

Florida
North Carolina
Ohio

As of 9pm EST, Trump is leading in OH, FL and 0.1% behind in NC...

 

[Laika]

Live results still coming in:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-us-2016-37899679

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...live-clinton-trump?view=map&type=presidential

It looks very mixed so far. Trump is doing better now than an hour ago as mid west states and texas are called in. At a guess it won't be a landslide for either but still very early at this point.

 

[Sunstone]

 

[Neo Deist]

As of 9:20pm EST, Trump actually has a surprise 2% lead in Michigan, 7% lead in Ohio, 1.5% lead in Florida, and 1.4% lead in North Carolina. If this stays on track, Trump will have over 270 electoral votes, if the usual other states go red.

 

[MD]

Holy ****!

 

[Laika]

As of 9:20pm EST, Trump actually has a surprise 2% lead in Michigan, 7% lead in Ohio, 1.5% lead in Florida, and 1.4% lead in North Carolina. If this stays on track, Trump will have over 270 electoral votes, if the usual other states go red.

Its got a "brexit" feel to it: the confusion messing with predictions some states leading in unexpected directions, others very close which should be clear leads by now and aparrent polarisation between local areas, particuarly rural and urban. Somethings gone very wrong for Clinton.

 

[Sunstone]

There's a higher turn out of rural voters in Michigan. Last election 19%, this election 27%, and those voters tend to favor Trump by a 15% margin.

 

[MD]

Its got a "brexit" feel to it: the confusion messing with predictions some states leading in unexpected directions, others very close which should be clear leads by now and aparrent polarisation between local areas, particuarly rural and urban. Somethings gone very wrong for Clinton.

I honestly thought Hillary was going to crush Trump

 

[David1967]

I honestly thought Hillary was going to crush Trump

That's what I thought yesterday. I've been bouncing between CNN and Fox News. Both are consistent with each other. Crazy night.

 

[Laika]

I honestly thought Hillary was going to crush Trump

I think the polarisation is going to mess with the result. If its a win by slight margins in many states, you could have a popular vote thats close but an electoral college landslide. It all depends where the vote is rather than by how much.

Trying to keep a cool head but I think we can start panicing now.

 

[Sunstone]

Its got a "brexit" feel to it: the confusion messing with predictions some states leading in unexpected directions, others very close which should be clear leads by now and aparrent polarisation between local areas, particuarly rural and urban. Somethings gone very wrong for Clinton.

It's pretty early yet. In Colorado, for instance, the lead changed from Trump to Clinton in just nine minutes of vote counting.

But I do think Clinton is not doing as well as anticipated.

 

[MD]

I think the polarisation is going to mess with the result. If its a win by slight margins in many states, you could have a popular vote thats close but an electoral college landslide. It all depends where the vote is rather than by how much.

Trying to keep a cool head but I think we can start panicing now.

Chaos. Chaos is a ladder

 

[David1967]

I think the polarisation is going to mess with the result. If its a win by slight margins in many states, you could have a popular vote thats close but an electoral college landslide. It all depends where the vote is rather than by how much.

Trying to keep a cool head but I think we can start panicing now.

I'm thinking very very close popular vote. Very divided country any way you look at it. And that is not good.

 

[Sunstone]

"Stating the obvious, but it’s very hard for Clinton to win the Electoral College if she loses Michigan along with Ohio, North Carolina and Florida none of which look particularly safe for her right now." -- Nate Silver.

 

[David1967]

"Stating the obvious, but it’s very hard for Clinton to win the Electoral College if she loses Michigan along with Ohio, North Carolina and Florida none of which look particularly safe for her right now." -- Nate Silver.

Maybe. But still could go either way. It's hard to see her catching up in Florida though.

 

[Sunstone]

The New York Times now gives Trump a 64% chance of winning the presidency. Asian stock markets are tumbling.

 

[David1967]

The New York Times now gives Trump a 64% chance of winning the presidency. Asian stock markets are tumbling.

There was a man on TV about a week ago that worked on Jimmy Carter 1980 campaign who warned that this election could be a repeat of that election. Still early but it looks possible.

 

[Laika]

The New York Times now gives Trump a 64% chance of winning the presidency. Asian stock markets are tumbling.

It just bumped up to 73% likelihood for Trump even if Clinton wins the popular vote.

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/forecast/president

 

[MD]

Bernie would have had an easy victory, looks like the DNC shouldn't self sabotage itself

 

[Neo Deist]

As of 10pm EST Trump leads these crucial states:

Florida - 1.5%
North Carolina - 4.1%
Ohio - 10.4%

These are the "WTF" states that have Trump in the lead:

Michigan - 4.2%
Wisconsin - 6.5%
New Hampshire - 2.2%

If everything stands as is, with the usual remaining states going red, Trump will have 282 electoral votes out of 270 needed, not including Virginia (13 votes) which is a 0.5% toss up right now.