China in the Throes of Demographic Collapse?

[Wandering Monk]

Interesting information. If Zeihan is correct, China is in its last decade as an industrial state:

What's your take?

 

[Stevicus]

Interesting information. If Zeihan is correct, China is in its last decade as an industrial state:

What's your take?

"Collapse" may be overstating it, although it does appear they do have a problem, similar to that of many other countries. But there may be other data points to look at other than just the age breakdown.

There may also be a global population problem as well. The planet has never seen this many people at a single time, and it just keeps getting higher and higher, although the growth rate has been slowing somewhat in recent years.

 

[Debater Slayer]

Other sources with considerable authority in the field of economics disagree with that prediction:

China’s gross domestic product will grow an average 4.5% over this decade, according to a new forecast by Oxford Economics, meaning China will take longer than other Asian economies such as Korea and Taiwan to catch-up with living standards in the developed world.

China Growth to Average 4.5% This Decade, Oxford Economics says

China’s gross domestic product will grow an average 4.5% over this decade, according to a new forecast by Oxford Economics, meaning China will take longer than other Asian economies such as Korea and Taiwan to catch-up with living standards in the developed world.

www.bloomberg.com

China's growth is projected by many experts to slow down over the next decade, but the vast majority make no mention of an outright collapse. I would also expect the US and its allies to be far less concerned about China's power than they currently are if they had realistic indications that it would collapse within a decade.

Also, if China collapses, that will heavily affect many other countries, including the US and Europe. It's not such a simple or straightforward issue where China's geopolitical rivals would benefit from its collapse. This is not the USSR with its Iron Curtain blocking Western trade; China has a largely symbiotic economic relationship with the US and Europe.

I think the climate crisis will significantly disrupt global industry and stability before China or any other major global power collapses.

 

[Debater Slayer]

"Collapse" may be overstating it, although it does appear they do have a problem, similar to that of many other countries. But there may be other data points to look at other than just the age breakdown.

There may also be a global population problem as well. The planet has never seen this many people at a single time, and it just keeps getting higher and higher, although the growth rate has been slowing somewhat in recent years.

In the coming few to several years, I expect that there will be an increasing number of alarmist predictions and wishes for a Chinese collapse from certain Western political commentators and pundits. Western powers haven't taken kindly to competition for their global hegemony since at least as far back as the mid-20th century, and they did all they could to bring down the USSR. They don't like having a taste of their own neocolonialist, hegemonic medicine.

This time they have a much harder task, though, because their global capitalist, corporate-driven system now heavily benefits from the cheaper labor and huge market of China, among other things. The fall of the USSR went without too much trouble for them; a Chinese fall would be a massive blow to their economies.