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Christianity in the US projected to lose majority status by 2070

Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
paarsurrey said:
" other dangerous faiths "
Atheism lacks faith.
So it's not included in "faiths".
Haven't they been doing it with or without scripture in the history, please?
Atheists can be evil or good.
But it doesn't make good people do evil.
Religions however, can command good
people to do evil, eg, execute the infidel.
 

It Aint Necessarily So

Veteran Member
Premium Member
what will replace Christianity most likely will be agnosticism and atheism ... not a good alternative.

Humanism is a better ideology than Christianity and has been since the Enlightenment.

Humanism promotes reason and evidence over faith, tolerance over irrational moral judgments, and rational ethics based in the Golden Rule and utilitarianism rather than ancient received moral codes. Humanism accomplishes what Christianity only promises - societal well-being. Humanism gave us science and the modern liberal democratic state with guaranteed freedoms. Humanism informed Christianity that slavery and pedophilia are immoral, but homosexuality and atheism not. Humanism converted astrology and creationism to astronomy and evolution science. Humanism converted serfs and subjects to middle class autonomous citizens. What was Christianity's last contribution to elevating the human condition? What was Christianity's last idea that bore fruit?

People are finding Christianity increasingly unkind, irrational, ineffectual, and irrelevant.

I think it will be a lot sooner than 2070. More like 2040.

Agree. I did this calculation myself over a decade ago based in Pew and ARIS data, and came up with 2039.

This is the ARIS data from 2009:

Total Christian
1990: 151,225,000 (86.2%)
2008: 173,402,000 (76.0%)

From Pew in 2014, we learned that people self-identifying as Christians fell further to 70.6% in 2014

These are different sources probably using slightly different methodologies, but we can still estimate the rate of this decline from this data. We had a 10% fall in 18 years (about 0.55% per year), then 6% more in six years.

2039 is 25 years later (1% per year). The exodus from Christianity is accelerating as we would expect as atheism became more socially acceptable, but even were it to remain 1% per year, that's a fall to about 45% by 2039. I should probably change that estimate 2034-5.


Yet it is Pew predicting 2070.
 

sun rise

The world is on fire
Premium Member
The Christian left are compassionate. Don't count them out. The religious right is only half of the religion so there is still hope.

Good point .Paying too much attention to media is hazardous to one's mental processing.
 

Kenny

Face to face with my Father
Premium Member
Pew Research Center, which is known for its non-partisan research on religion, has used statistical methods to project that by 2070 Christians will no longer be a majority in the U.S. They describe four possible scenarios and all of them predict a decline in Christianity. This all assumes that the statistical trends will continue. Do you think the trend will continue, or will something happen that reverses it?

Article here, no paywall. Modeling the Future of Religion in America
Pew is a good research group.

Though the statistics are true, it can't project moves of God. Things like "a move of God" can't be quantified..

Things like the Welsh Revival or the US Isuzu Street Revival changed the direction world wide.
 

sun rise

The world is on fire
Premium Member
I think the trend will continue. I find that religion is becoming much more of a personal endeavour, and less about what others think you should believe. More orthopraxy less orthodoxy. Christianity seems very Orthodoxic.
All the Abrahamic religions tend toward orthodoxy compared to Dharmic ones.
 

sun rise

The world is on fire
Premium Member
Though the statistics are true, it can't project moves of God. Things like "a move of God" can't be quantified..

In my belief system we are the stage like a tsunami where the ocean recedes from the shore before the real surge happens. What I know and what I believe tells me that when the "Ocean" surge happens it's going to be one for the ages.
 

AlexanderG

Active Member
Humanism is a better ideology than Christianity and has been since the Enlightenment.

Humanism promotes reason and evidence over faith, tolerance over irrational moral judgments, and rational ethics based in the Golden Rule and utilitarianism rather than ancient received moral codes. Humanism accomplishes what Christianity only promises - societal well-being. Humanism gave us science and the modern liberal democratic state with guaranteed freedoms. Humanism informed Christianity that slavery and pedophilia are immoral, but homosexuality and atheism not. Humanism converted astrology and creationism to astronomy and evolution science. Humanism converted serfs and subjects to middle class autonomous citizens. What was Christianity's last contribution to elevating the human condition? What was Christianity's last idea that bore fruit?

People are finding Christianity increasingly unkind, irrational, ineffectual, and irrelevant.



Agree. I did this calculation myself over a decade ago based in Pew and ARIS data, and came up with 2039.

This is the ARIS data from 2009:

Total Christian
1990: 151,225,000 (86.2%)
2008: 173,402,000 (76.0%)

From Pew in 2014, we learned that people self-identifying as Christians fell further to 70.6% in 2014

These are different sources probably using slightly different methodologies, but we can still estimate the rate of this decline from this data. We had a 10% fall in 18 years (about 0.55% per year), then 6% more in six years.

2039 is 25 years later (1% per year). The exodus from Christianity is accelerating as we would expect as atheism became more socially acceptable, but even were it to remain 1% per year, that's a fall to about 45% by 2039. I should probably change that estimate 2034-5.


Yet it is Pew predicting 2070.

Yes, it's very odd that their projections all estimate that the trend will suddenly slow from its clear direction.

Here is an image of their projections, but where I've added the red line for what seems like the obvious trend that they inexplicably rejected:

[GALLERY=media, 9797]Pewstudy by AlexanderG posted Sep 28, 2022 at 2:56 PM[/GALLERY]
 

sun rise

The world is on fire
Premium Member
Yes, it's very odd that their projections all estimate that the trend will suddenly slow from its clear direction.

Here is an image of their projections, but where I've added the red line for what seems like the obvious trend that they inexplicably rejected:

[GALLERY=media, 9797]Pewstudy by AlexanderG posted Sep 28, 2022 at 2:56 PM[/GALLERY]
I wondered about that as well. There's some statistical "magic" involved that results in the curves they used. I prefer my statistics plain rather then spiced with "magic".
 

Terrywoodenpic

Oldest Heretic
Pew is a good research group.

Though the statistics are true, it can't project moves of God. Things like "a move of God" can't be quantified..

Things like the Welsh Revival or the US Isuzu Street Revival changed the direction world wide.

There could indeed be a religious revival but it is becoming less and less likely.
Though if there is a religious upsurge. Christianity is unlikely to be the beneficiary.
 

Kenny

Face to face with my Father
Premium Member
There could indeed be a religious revival but it is becoming less and less likely.
Though if there is a religious upsurge. Christianity is unlikely to be the beneficiary.
Maybe... of course we are praying otherwise
 
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