BUT... Let's keep in mind that it was primarily the lender's role for lending out too much cash that was part of the cause of Bush's real estate bubble crash.....
I wouldn't call it "Bush's crash", given that the underlying risk factors preceded him.
This was also true of the trigger, ie, 9/11, which was the result of numerous long
standing domestic & foreign policies. High LTV loans, loans to risky borrowers,
heavy ownership subsidies, & institutionalized inflation were the norm before his
administration. Those created both the price bubble & the dangers of it bursting.
Note also that these risky practices continued, & some were even made worse under
the Obama administration, eg, foreclosing on properties unnecessarily, causing much
financial loss & personal turmoil. His relief programs for homeowners specifically
excluded borrowers in trouble. A single late loan payment made one ineligible
(a friend found this out by applying).
....Bush didn't regulate their lending practices enough so the cash that flowed was not properly backed by the actual value of the physical property. We know this in hindsight.
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I agree that high LTV loans are too risky. But prior & subsequent presidents & Congress
are continuing the same policies. It would've been politically impossible for Bush to
convince Congress to stop high LTV & other risky lending because the political fallout
would've been unendurable.
There's a powerful lobby of homeowners who want to borrow to the hilt, & have governments
(state & fed) subsidize the interest & property tax expenses. Note that in commercial real
estate lenders typically wanted about 30% equity as a condition of lending. This would be
a much more reasonable requirement for homes. Then, were there an economic decline,
owners would still have equity, & could afford to sell & move to where work is.
Specifically, it was the money lent to fixer uppers whose business model was to recuperate the property and resell for profit. The main problem with this model was that if the buyers could not sell with in a short period of time, then they would start draining cash because they did not have a long term annual income. So many simply defaulted but we don't blame borrowers for trying to borrow cash. We have to blame businesses, specifically, the lenders for having bad risk management.
I saw very few investors buying properties to fix up for the purpose of reselling. (This never
looked profitable to me.) So I don't believe they were a significant portion of borrowers.
Moreover, such investors typically cannot finance the cost of improvements. so they bring
cash to the deal to enable adding equity. This is low risk.
To buy a property for quick resale has a high hurdle, ie, about 10% total transfer costs,
in addition to carrying costs. And any profit earned is short term gain, so it's taxed at
ordinary income tax rates. This is uninspiring.
So, in that perspective, Obama was right to regulate the lenders. He handcuffed them to create a foreclosure boom for other buyers that knew the previous model was not sustainable.
A "foreclosure boom" meant that assets were taken from some owners, & sold at a distressed
property discount. Aside from this not creating any value, it's a heinous practice because
of the woe caused those who lose their properties. A great deal of real wealth is lost to
physical damage & lawyers (who suck vast sums from the process).
If those assets could've been kept in the hands of owners still capable of paying off
the loan, this would've been the more financially & socially responsible thing to do.
He cut losses and solely placed the losses on the government and the lenders, because that was where the mismanagement came from.
I disagree that this cuts losses. When a loan goes bad, & the property is sold for
less than the principal & interest owed. This actually increases losses relative to
renegotiating with the original borrower/owner. The lender should be the one who
decides how to minimize his own losses. It should not be decided by some broad
policy mass foreclosure without regard for the borrower's or lender's interests.
Original borrowers had to default and be protected by filing bankruptcy. New borrowers can come in and continue the economy but at more sustainable values.
There's still a net loss with this approach. Instead of foreclosing, &
selling at a loss to a buyer, renegotiating the loan with the existing
borrower at more favorable payment terms can result in a lower loss.
Costs avoided by doing this:
- Legal costs
- Carrying costs between acquisition & sale (eg, opportunity cost, interest,
maintenance, insurance, property taxes, utilities, management)
- Damage due to vacancy or hostile evicted party
- Buyer loan origination costs
- Buyer acquisition costs
- Original borrower's income tax liability for the lender's loss