Extraterrestrial UFOs: Yes? No? Maybe?

[The Holy Bottom Burp]

When I was little, I used to seriously believe I would simply make my own fully functional spaceship. Bless.

I was less ambitious, it was a car...made out of wood...that still drove like a car made out of metal. It is something I should perhaps revisit, it would knock a Prius into a cocked hat!

 

[Electra]

We have been in contact for as long as I can remember.

 

[Desert Snake]

Technologically advanced==visitation to earth. Thats the theory.

 

[Corvus]

I was less ambitious, it was a car...made out of wood...that still drove like a car made out of metal. It is something I should perhaps revisit, it would knock a Prius into a cocked hat!

If you crash it the silver lining is a nice pile of fire wood to use later.

 

[Corvus]

We have been in contact for as long as I can remember.

Can you tell them I want a one way ticket off this planet?

 

[Kilgore Trout]

What do you think?
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I think people like to invent fantastical stories because it's fun and interesting. Combine that with the vagaries of humans' notoriously flawed sensory and perceptual faculties, and you can find people who have witnessed everything from aliens, to fairies, to gods, to self-admitted hoaxes (like bigfoot).

Like anything else, until there is some type of actual, objective, empirical evidence, UFO's are nothing but fantasies, lies, and/or misinterpretations. But, I do understand many people's drive to believe in magical and mysterious things. Not everyone can compartmentalize exciting stories from reality, nor necessarily do many people even care to.

 

[ChristineM]

Ever hear of the Drake Equation?

The Drake equation is a probabilistic argument used to arrive at an estimate of the number of active, communicative extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy. The number of such civilizations, N, is assumed to be equal to the mathematical product of

1. R∗, the average rate of star formation, in our galaxy,
2. fp, the fraction of formed stars, that have planets,
3. ne for stars that have planets, the average number of planets that can potentially support life,
4. fl, the fraction of those planets, that actually develop life,
5. fi, the fraction of planets bearing life on which intelligent, civilized life, has developed,
6. fc, the fraction of these civilizations that have developed communications, i.e., technologies that release detectable signs into space, and
7. L, the length of time, over which such civilizations release detectable signals,

for a combined expression of:

N = R ∗ ⋅ f p ⋅ n e ⋅ f l ⋅ f i ⋅ f c ⋅ L {\displaystyle N=R_{*}\cdot f_{\mathrm {p} }\cdot n_{\mathrm {e} }\cdot f_{\mathrm {l} }\cdot f_{\mathrm {i} }\cdot f_{\mathrm {c} }\cdot L}

Source: Wikipedia
​

Of course the answer (N) depends on the figures one plugs into each factor. One example given in the Wikipedia article comes up with N = 156,000,000. There are 156 million active, communicative extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy.


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The Drake equation was formulated in the early 60s. Recent events are actually discovering suns with planet's and solar systems

 

[DavidFirth]

If some people left Earth and then 200 years later time travelled back would they then be considered aliens?

 

[Skwim]

The Drake equation was formulated in the early 60s. Recent events are actually discovering suns with planet's and solar systems

Yup, which could change the value of f in fp, the fraction of formed stars, that have planets.

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[ChristineM]

Yup, which could change the value of f in fp, the fraction of formed stars, that have planets.

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It would. When the Drake equation was formulated it was all supposition. The keplar discoveries are providing hard data to fp and ne

 

[Skwim]

It would. When the Drake equation was formulated it was all supposition.

Not so much supposition as an assumption of the factors affecting the likelihood of active, communicative extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy.

The keplar discoveries are providing hard data to fp and ne

Yup, but you do realize the the Drake Equation is just that, an equation, don't you. And just like the equation for finding the area of a rectangle is A = h X l any value can be plugged into the variables. If l = 3 and h = 4 then A = 12 and if l = 22 and h =41 then A = 902.

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[Corvus]

If some people left Earth and then 200 years later time travelled back would they then be considered aliens?

No. They would be of the same genetic stock as terrestrial humans, they would be non terrestrial humans. However they might well appear to be aliens, if their technology was way more advanced and generations of living in zero gravity space had altered their physiology and appearance somewhat. Even more so if they genetically modified their bodies to be more compatible with living in space, with limited resources etc.

 

[Electra]

Can you tell them I want a one way ticket off this planet?

They said you do not yet see how lucky you are.

 

[Stevicus]

The Drake equation was formulated in the early 60s. Recent events are actually discovering suns with planet's and solar systems

This thing is hypnotic.

 

[ChristineM]

Not so much supposition as an assumption of the factors affecting the likelihood of active, communicative extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy.


Yup, but you do realize the the Drake Equation is just that, an equation, don't you. And just like the equation for finding the area of a rectangle is A = h X l any value can be plugged into the variables. If l = 3 and h = 4 then A = 12 and if l = 22 and h =41 then A = 902.

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Of course its just an equation, when put down all the variables were best guess, now some are being filled with real data.

Note my pose was not based on the Drake equation but my own best guess.

 

[ChristineM]

This thing is hypnotic.

And growing rapidly

 

[Corvus]

And growing rapidly

(Observational estimate I think) Two trillion galaxies, that's a very large number of star systems...rough estimate of 2 with 23 zeroes after it. Two hunded thousand quintillion star systems, I think. Ballpark.

 

[Corvus]

They said you do not yet see how lucky you are.

Tell them I think they have a perverted understanding of the definition, lucky.

 

[ChristineM]

Two trillion galaxies, that's a very large number of star systems...rough estimate of 2 with 23 zeroes after it. Two hunded thousand quintillion star systems, I think. Ballpark.

Good ballpark, astronomy doesn't even know how many stars in our galaxy, estimating between 100 and 200 billion stars so its best guess at best.
Astronomer David Kornreich makes it 1 with 24 zeros stars in the observable universe, and that's only the "bit" we can see.

 

[zodal]

It seems that most ufo observations are in areas where there are electromagnetic disturbances, ancient geoglyphs, and monoliths. As well as around nuclear weapon facilities.