Fiction.... Or Prophecy?

[The Hammer]

"The year is 2028. Oil is the black gold that controls the fortunes of all nations and the once-mighty United States is down to the dregs. A giant oil field is discovered off the Tanzanian coast and the newly elected US President finds his solution to America's ailing economy. While the US blindly plots and plans regime change in this hitherto insignificant African nation, Tanzania's allies - the Chinese - start their own secret machinations. The explosion that follows shatters a decades-old balance of global power and triggers a crisis on American soil that the United States may not survive."

Twilight's Last Gleaming by John Michael Greer

This seems vaguely prophetic from an author I am quite fond of... Fiction... Prophecy... Can't tell these days.

The book is touted as A chilling high-concept geo-political thriller where a declining United States and a resurgent China come to the brink of all out nuclear war.

But I still can see this as happening too.

 

[exchemist]

"The year is 2028. Oil is the black gold that controls the fortunes of all nations and the once-mighty United States is down to the dregs. A giant oil field is discovered off the Tanzanian coast and the newly elected US President finds his solution to America's ailing economy. While the US blindly plots and plans regime change in this hitherto insignificant African nation, Tanzania's allies - the Chinese - start their own secret machinations. The explosion that follows shatters a decades-old balance of global power and triggers a crisis on American soil that the United States may not survive."

Twilight's Last Gleaming by John Michael Greer

This seems vaguely prophetic from an author I am quite fond of... Fiction... Prophecy... Can't tell these days.

The book is touted as A chilling high-concept geo-political thriller where a declining United States and a resurgent China come to the brink of all out nuclear war.

But I still can see this as happening too.

On the contrary, it sounds totally out of date. Oil is rapidly ceasing to be "black gold". This is last century thinking.

An updated version would focus on China's current dominance of the mineral mining and processing involved in battery technology, or on Taiwan's dominance of high end integrated circuit manufacture.

The latter worries me a lot, actually. Putin's war is soon going to be strangled by lack of microprocessors. If China were to retake Taiwan and agree to supply Russia, that could solve Putin's problem.......

 

[RestlessSoul]

The most precious liquid will continue to be water, and the clean drinkable variety may become scarce very soon. This summer, in England, it already is, while the water companies and government have been asleep at the wheel.

 

[Stevicus]

"The year is 2028. Oil is the black gold that controls the fortunes of all nations and the once-mighty United States is down to the dregs. A giant oil field is discovered off the Tanzanian coast and the newly elected US President finds his solution to America's ailing economy. While the US blindly plots and plans regime change in this hitherto insignificant African nation, Tanzania's allies - the Chinese - start their own secret machinations. The explosion that follows shatters a decades-old balance of global power and triggers a crisis on American soil that the United States may not survive."

Twilight's Last Gleaming by John Michael Greer

This seems vaguely prophetic from an author I am quite fond of... Fiction... Prophecy... Can't tell these days.

The book is touted as A chilling high-concept geo-political thriller where a declining United States and a resurgent China come to the brink of all out nuclear war.

But I still can see this as happening too.

It could be that, although I don't know of any large oil field off the coast of Tanzania.

The general practice, as it was done during the Cold War and since, is to rule by proxy and allow proxies to fight it out with each other - so as to avoid a direct confrontation between nuclear-armed superpowers. Let tinpot dictators do our dirty work for us; that's the US style, while our politicians can thump their chests about "defending freedom."

After WW2, the US held the upper hand for a long time, both in terms of Cold War geopolitics as well as cultural and economic dominance. But other nations have been catching up, and we don't have the upper hand anymore.

 

[The Hammer]

On the contrary, it sounds totally out of date. Oil is rapidly ceasing to be "black gold". This is last century thinking

Fair enough, It might be a bit out of date, although I still see it as a possibility. Even if it doesn't quite include oil.

Looks like the reality will be Taiwan (people), not oil imo. As you said.

I was too tired last night to remember to add that I thought the time of 2028 was a bit early for oil scarcity wars. That will be colors to 2050 if we don't get off the black teat soon enough.

 

[exchemist]

Fair enough, It might be a bit out of date, although I still see it as a possibility. Even if it doesn't quite include oil.

Looks like the reality will be Taiwan (people), not oil imo. As you said.

I was too tired last night to remember to add that I thought the time of 2028 was a bit early for oil scarcity wars. That will be colors to 2050 if we don't get off the black teat soon enough.

There will never be an oil scarcity war. Oil will be left in the ground.

 

[The Hammer]

There will never be an oil scarcity war. Oil will be left in the ground.

Plastics need oil. As do many many other things besides just fuel.

I disagree

 

[exchemist]

Plastics need oil. As do many many other things besides just fuel.

I disagree

Sure, and lubricants etc. But you may have noticed that plastics are causing a lot of environmental issues too. There will be a lot more recycling, and a lot more substitution, in the coming decades. And you can make plastics from gas of course as well, so it's not just oil reserves but the sum of oil plus gas that has to be considered.

The industry is more worried about stranded assets than by running out of the stuff: What are stranded assets? - Grantham Research Institute on climate change and the environment