Five reasons Brexit could signal Trump winning the White House

[Sultan Of Swing]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-36564808

Thoughts?

 

[LuisDantas]

Sounds about right.

Quite regrettably.

 

[gsa]

An American referendum on globalization and immigration might produce a similar result, but the idea that Brexit suggests a Trump presidency is about as likely as suggesting that the referendum is evidence Nigel Farage would be directly elected prime minister of the UK.

 

[Lyndon]

Makes about as much sense as saying because its really cold right now in Australia, its going to be a cold summer in America

 

[metis]

If Brexit goes sour, and there are indications that it very well may, then Trump's goose could be cooked by showing that a right-wing temper-tantrum may not be the best way for the States to go.

 

[columbus]

If Brexit goes sour, and there are indications that it very well may, then Trump's goose could be cooked by showing that a right-wing temper-tantrum may not be the best way for the States to go.

Which "States" are you referring to?
Here in the USA, I doubt that 10% of the electorate could spell Brexit, pick Cameron out of a police line up, and find Europe on a world map without Google.
Tom

 

[YmirGF]

If Brexit goes sour, and there are indications that it very well may, then Trump's goose could be cooked by showing that a right-wing temper-tantrum may not be the best way for the States to go.

It really depends which side is the more unreasonable. The EU could decide to make things very difficult for the UK thereby thwarting any other countries from daring to consider leaving.
Some are saying that the EU is failed experiement already and have been for quite some time... yet it still limps along... seemingly oblivious.
It is arguable that part of the reason for the uptick in the US economy is because, compared to Europe, it's the best bet going... even with anemic growth.

Harvard Business Review: The European Union: A Failed Experiment

For example, if you remove Germany from the equation, the economic outlook for the EU is horrid. (And that was before Brexit!)

 

[Sultan Of Swing]

An American referendum on globalization and immigration might produce a similar result, but the idea that Brexit suggests a Trump presidency is about as likely as suggesting that the referendum is evidence Nigel Farage would be directly elected prime minister of the UK.

Nigel Farage is leader of a small party however, and the prime minister is not directly elected like the President is.

If Trump was running third party he wouldn't be president either, just like Farage won't be PM. Trump is head of one of the two big parties though, he should get the support of the tribal party base, and maybe anti-globalists and working class votes on top of that, just as this British referendum was won by an alliance of social conservatives and working class voters.

 

[Rick O'Shez]

The "special relationship" of the future:

 

[Sultan Of Swing]

The "special relationship" of the future:

Would be top banter

 

[gsa]

Nigel Farage is leader of a small party however, and the prime minister is not directly elected like the President is.

I realize that. My point is that what the UK went through was an issue referendum, not a decision on political leadership. In other words, I doubt that Farage would have been selected (directly or indirectly) as the leader of the UK by UK voters, even though many of them agree with his position on leaving the EU.

If Trump was running third party he wouldn't be president either, just like Farage won't be PM. Trump is head of one of the two big parties though, he should get the support of the tribal party base, and maybe anti-globalists and working class votes on top of that, just as this British referendum was won by an alliance of social conservatives and working class voters.

At the present time, polls seem to suggest that Trump will lose the November election in a Goldwater-esque landslide. Trump has the support of the South and probably states like West Virginia, Idaho, Wyoming and Montana (although even that one is questionable). After that it gets dicey, and we are not talking about traditional swing states.

 

[Sultan Of Swing]

I realize that. My point is that what the UK went through was an issue referendum, not a decision on political leadership. In other words, I doubt that Farage would have been selected (directly or indirectly) as the leader of the UK by UK voters, even though many of them agree with his position on leaving the EU.

True, and I suppose Trump's very character can put people off from voting for his policies.

At the present time, polls seem to suggest that Trump will lose the November election in a Goldwater-esque landslide. Trump has the support of the South and probably states like West Virginia, Idaho, Wyoming and Montana (although even that one is questionable). After that it gets dicey, and we are not talking about traditional swing states.

Far too early to call. The first debate and the polls thereafter will be the bellwether imo.

 

[ShivaFan]

Anger over jobs, trade pacts, immigration, illlegal aliens and so-called refugees, and powerful elites who benefit from cheap labor, anger over domestic security, unresponsive leaders and stocks hardwired to empower specific globalist agendas designed to build dependency in schemas aimed at weakening the middle class and controlling the lives of the people and to distant the middle class from a voice that is buried in bureacracy and choked to death by unelected and distant agencies, the same elites who want to disenfranchise the free speech of the people by means of politically correct speech control.

Without Sovereignty, you do not have a country, without a country the people will lose their voice and democracy is the target. The power brokers that run the EU don't give hoot about democracy, it's nothing but an inconvenience to them. Their objective is to destroy democracy.

Goldman Sachs rewarded Hillary Clinton with a total of $675,000 for three paid speeches. Hank Paulson, George W. Bush’s treasury secretary, was the CEO of Goldman Sachs. He also presided over both the meltdown of the U.S. economy and the subsequent bailout of his close friends and associates. He has now endorsed Hillary Clinton - no surprise - citing her agenda to enact globalist policies on trade and mass "immigration" (cheap labor) as the reason for his endorsement annonced before other globalist elites in a meeting who are destroying the middle class and then published as an op-ed the Washington Post. Thus guy is just one of enemies of democracy of many, many more who will now try any extreme to hurt America and the UK including fake polls they orchestrate which they pay for and which they hack, and Hillary Clinton is clearly with them as an EOD (Enemy of Democracy).

They just ran a fake online petition now revealed this Sunday as a complete fraud, an operative in the Hillary campaign ran with it as "evidence" of "changed minds" regarding BREXIT in England but then pulled the propaganda campaign today after it was proven a fraud. There were not "2 million Britons" signing this online "petition" to have another referendum, over 700k are clearly fraud with 24,000 signed from North Korea and 39,000 from Vatican City which has a population of only 800. So fraudulent was this propaganda effort by the globalists, Obama, Hillary, Goldman Sachs, the Kerry US State Department and others, the House of Commons today had to come out with a statement: "We take fraud in the petitions system very seriously, because it undermines the process of parliamentary democracy" - House of Commons statement.

The referendum in the UK wasn't an opinion poll, it was a referendum and democracy in action. The undecided went with BREXIT just as the undecided will go Trump. Leftists in Parliament now want to abrogate democracy and the people by simply declaring there will be no exit - they are enemies of democracy (EOD) as is typical of the globalist elite who have politicians as their benefiction and dupes of fascism and the anti-democratic unwashed of the far-left miniority of mental cases and welfare class who would sell out freedom for "free bread" that will never be delivered as they eventually are outnumbered anyway by hordes of foreign cheap labor and slaves who will deplete all the resources that should have gone to citizens now delegated to useless diseased cattle.

The polls before BREXIT were not only wrong, they were fake, propaganda. Just as FOX News which is awash with Trump-haters from the WSJ and the globalist elite trashed Trump from day one, propagadized on behalf of the globalist cheap labor elite, then gave a non-stop campaign for the "Stop Trump" so-called "movement" of the Republican establishment and Bushbots who continue to try and pull down the will of the people and trash Trump, yet all their claims that "Trump will never become the nominee", their fake polls, all were wrong and all proven fake and all failed. Today the wash of Trump haters tout the same garbage on FOX News even while a few others see the light and the reality of the big picture, touting some NBC/WSJ poll showing Clinton "five points lead" over Trump, yet when I go to the actual RCP site showing the NBC/WSJ poll it is only 1 point lead for Clinton as of right now which actually means Trump has a four point lead over Hillary Goldman Sachs Clinton.

NBC/WSJ 6/19 - 6/23 39 -Clinton 38-Trump 10 -Johnson 6-Stein (Clinton +1 over Trump)

Most if not all of the Gary Johnson (Libertarian) vote will go Trump. So actually the four point Trump lead over Hillary right now is more like 6 points. The phony liberal news and their fake polls will all be proven wrong just as their fake BREXIT polls, the US primaries, the nomination, the reactions to world events, et all. Wrong, wrong, wrong, globalist fraud.

Gudni Johannesson just won Iceland's presidential election today after riding a wave of anti-establishment sentiment, he is opposed to the EU. All the predictions by tbe phony liberal news and the globalists were wrong. People are sick of the agenda of the globalists against the middle class and the corruptions of their politicians such as Hillary Clinton. As the US enters the general election cycle after the conventions, the corruptions of the Clinton's and the globalists will be communicated to the American people and no amount of threats, government intimidations and bankers will be able to stop it.

 

[metis]

It really depends which side is the more unreasonable. The EU could decide to make things very difficult for the UK thereby thwarting any other countries from daring to consider leaving.
Some are saying that the EU is failed experiement already and have been for quite some time... yet it still limps along... seemingly oblivious.
It is arguable that part of the reason for the uptick in the US economy is because, compared to Europe, it's the best bet going... even with anemic growth.

Harvard Business Review: The European Union: A Failed Experiment

For example, if you remove Germany from the equation, the economic outlook for the EU is horrid. (And that was before Brexit!)

We will have to wait and see how this all works out, but most of the economists I've listened to and read feel that this is going to hurt the UK economically overall. It's really hard to see any silver lining in any area in the move. And I do agree completely with your last sentence, btw.

 

[metis]

Which "States" are you referring to?
Here in the USA, I doubt that 10% of the electorate could spell Brexit, pick Cameron out of a police line up, and find Europe on a world map without Google.
Tom

True, but the reality is that if the UK takes a noser, the word will get out, maybe sending a message to the independents and the elderly that see their 401-K's taking a hit that Trump could also lead us down the tubes. It'll be interesting to see how the stock markets react this upcoming week because that could possibly give us a "preview of coming attractions".

 

[LuisDantas]

It really depends which side is the more unreasonable. The EU could decide to make things very difficult for the UK thereby thwarting any other countries from daring to consider leaving.

That would be rather foolish of the EU. The whole point of the idea is to further cooperation.

 

[metis]

That would be rather foolish of the EU. The whole point of the idea is to further cooperation.

Under normal circumstances, I would tend to agree with you, but these are not normal circumstances.

If the UK makes the break with little ill-effects, that could encourage other countries, such as France, the Netherlands, and Sweden to maybe boogie-out as well. OTOH, if the Brits take it economically and/or politically on the chin, that could sent a signal to the others that leaving the EU could be economic/political suicide. And remember that the Scots and Northern Ireland are now talking about leaving the UK, which also could be a wee bit frightening to others because it could ramp up divisions in their own country as well.

Right now, I think many of these countries in the EU are going to take a "wait & see" position to see how it plays out with the Brits.

 

[Twilight Hue]

That would be rather foolish of the EU. The whole point of the idea is to further cooperation.

Likely. Yes.

I suspect this is a shifting of lines to a greater or lesser extent.

 

[LuisDantas]

Under normal circumstances, I would tend to agree with you, but these are not normal circumstances.

If the UK makes the break with little ill-effects, that could encourage other countries, such as France, the Netherlands, and Sweden to maybe boogie-out as well. OTOH, if the Brits take it economically and/or politically on the chin, that could sent a signal to the others that leaving the EU could be economic/political suicide. And remember that the Scots and Northern Ireland are now talking about leaving the UK, which also could be a wee bit frightening to others because it could ramp up divisions in their own country as well.

Right now, I think many of these countries in the EU are going to take a "wait & see" position to see how it plays out with the Brits.

You are likely correct, and I hope Scotland and NI make good use of their leverage... still, it is utterly self-defeating to purposefully make the EU something to be feared.