Whether this year is the hottest on record or the close second hottest the trends over time demonstrate a potential devastating future.
Source: 2020 is on course to be the warmest year on record
2020 is on course to be the warmest year on record
While this year will be memorable for many reasons, it is now more likely than not that 2020 will also be the warmest year for the Earth’s surface since reliable records began in the mid-1800s.
This is all the more remarkable because it will lack any major El Niño event – a factor that has contributed to most prior record warm years.
However, with three months remaining, there is still some uncertainty. There is a chance that a growing La Niña in the tropical Pacific may drive cooler temperatures leading to a second-place finish – at least in some of the global temperature records produced by different groups of researchers around the world.
The first nine months of the year saw record concentrations of major greenhouse gases – CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide – in the atmosphere. Arctic sea ice extent was at record low levels for much of the summer and the summer minimum clocked in as the second lowest on record after 2012.
While climate records are a useful benchmark to highlight the warming of the planet, the change in temperatures, sea ice and other climate factors over time are much more important than if any single year sets a new record.
There has been a clear warming trend over the past 50 years, along with hints in some datasets of potential acceleration in recent years. Similarly, both sea ice extent and volume are clearly declining over time.
Surface temperatures show record warmth
The first nine months of 2020 were remarkably warm. Carbon Brief has analyzed records from six different research groups that report global surface temperature records: NASA; NOAA; Met Office Hadley Centre/UEA; Berkeley Earth; Cowtan and Way; and Copernicus/ECMWF.
The figure below shows the temperature anomalies – changes relative to the 1981-2010 average temperature – for each year since 1970, along with the average over the first nine months of 2020. (Note: at the time of writing, September data was not yet available for the Hadley/UEA or Cowtan and Way temperature records.)
Source: 2020 is on course to be the warmest year on record
2020 is on course to be the warmest year on record
- 2020 is set to be the warmest year on record, according to data from different sources, including NASA.
- This is even more remarkable despite it not being an El Niño extreme weather event year.
- The first nine months of the year saw record concentrations of major greenhouse gases like CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide.
- Arctic sea ice extent was also at record low levels for much of the summer.
While this year will be memorable for many reasons, it is now more likely than not that 2020 will also be the warmest year for the Earth’s surface since reliable records began in the mid-1800s.
This is all the more remarkable because it will lack any major El Niño event – a factor that has contributed to most prior record warm years.
However, with three months remaining, there is still some uncertainty. There is a chance that a growing La Niña in the tropical Pacific may drive cooler temperatures leading to a second-place finish – at least in some of the global temperature records produced by different groups of researchers around the world.
The first nine months of the year saw record concentrations of major greenhouse gases – CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide – in the atmosphere. Arctic sea ice extent was at record low levels for much of the summer and the summer minimum clocked in as the second lowest on record after 2012.
While climate records are a useful benchmark to highlight the warming of the planet, the change in temperatures, sea ice and other climate factors over time are much more important than if any single year sets a new record.
There has been a clear warming trend over the past 50 years, along with hints in some datasets of potential acceleration in recent years. Similarly, both sea ice extent and volume are clearly declining over time.
Surface temperatures show record warmth
The first nine months of 2020 were remarkably warm. Carbon Brief has analyzed records from six different research groups that report global surface temperature records: NASA; NOAA; Met Office Hadley Centre/UEA; Berkeley Earth; Cowtan and Way; and Copernicus/ECMWF.
The figure below shows the temperature anomalies – changes relative to the 1981-2010 average temperature – for each year since 1970, along with the average over the first nine months of 2020. (Note: at the time of writing, September data was not yet available for the Hadley/UEA or Cowtan and Way temperature records.)