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Global warming or global hoax?

Guy Threepwood

Mighty Pirate
I'm going to quit whilst I'm ahead. I think the difference between our respective ways of thinking is in orders of magnitude. This isn't going to be bridged in a single thread even if we share some common ground.

Nevertheless, its been very intresting and unexpectedly so, so thanks. I will have do more thinking on this for if we talk again about this issue later sometime. :)

Likewise I appreciate the thoughtful, civil discourse! We both, all want the same thing I think, prosperity and safety for all, protection of the environment. These issues should be making some headlines in the coming months so I'm sure we will get plenty chance to revisit! :)
 

Acim

Revelation all the time
A rule of thumb for conspiracies is that the simpler they are, the fewer things that can go wrong. What your saying is that basically, the entire global scientific community is lying or has been duped -along with a large number of journalists or politicians- which means the conspiracy would involve thousands of indivduals. Can I ask why you think that is plausible?

I would go with duped. I would say the conspiracy is based on ignorance, and not really looking at the available data, except in ways that foster the ongoing ignorance.

If I attempt to get specific, that could (rather easily) take away from the generalization in the above point, which I think is pertinent to what I see OP getting at in first post of the thread. But I'll try anyways.

So, fans of science love (IMO) to take credit for all technology, as if that is what science does. Not 'art' as much as somehow the (mythological) scientific method delivered this unto us. Anyway, the technological advancement during the era known as the Industrial Age would be significant factor for why climate change has delivered us a worldwide paradigm where we (much of humanity) is reliant on fossil fuels for energy. Thus, not out of bounds to say "science did this." But is very rarely framed that way, and if this is brought up, other human motivations are brought up to scapegoat science/technological advancement out of the picture, to say it deserves zero blame. Things such as human greed, or human desire for warfare are put on the pedestal and to then be understood as 'that's really what drives the conspiracy.' Yet, (fans of) science have their collective fingers in both of those motivations, greed and desire for warfare that is most efficient, seeking advantage via technological might.

To me, that's just one large example of what could be said. Another that I usually go with is that science (scientific type reporting) often has information purporting that this thing (could be anything) today has researchers who have utilized (scientific) method, available in peer reviewed journals to determine this increases health, is beneficial. Then weeks to years later, oops, sorry. Turns out that causes some ailment that we now know through (scientific) method, available in peer reviewed journals, showing it debilitates health, is actually harmful.

That's a more specific example even while I intentionally am not bringing up specifics because I've gotten to point where I realize anything/everything carries with it 'degree of harm / risk' without exception, so those who are touting something today as 'beneficial' are in the crowd that seeks to dupe you. This, I don't think is based on ignorance, but it helps if consumers are ignorant for the scam (motivated by human greed) to work.

At a whole other level, I don't think this is based on science, but is actually based on certain spiritual principles. That could take awhile to go through, but the epitome of it is the 'mind/body problem' and the nature of threat/fear vs. forgiveness/love. Even I recognize that leaves a lot to question, but this is, as I said, whole other level that is driving the 'lower level' of understanding, and is how humanity is duped.

As this pertains to climate change (and coming back to lower level understanding), it seems reasonable to ask that if it is man made, and science is partially (to arguably mostly) how we got here (where there is serious global problem), then perhaps science is not that which ought to be sought as answer or way in which to resolve the (alleged) crisis.
 

MysticPhD

Member
No. I'm going to let Al Gore do the explaining as its pretty simple and just see how you respond and give you a chance to elaborate why you feel comfortable rejecting the science on this.

I'm not sure how profitable discussion will be to make the effort if you've already made up your mind based on treating the scientific community as liars or frauds, etc. that all but closes the discussion by treating any new information and evidence supporting the existence of recent climate change as a man made pheneomena as fabricated. I'm not going to pretend to know how to change your views if that is the case, but here's the video anyway. :)
The use of climate models is highly dependent upon the assumptions about the included variables, the validity of the data upon which the models are built, as well as, the mathematical relationships to each other and to the climate outcomes. Simulations are highly dependent upon the validity of these presumed relationships and are sensitive to feedback processes that may or may not be comprehensively represented. We cannot produce even regional level models of cloud formation in the near term and water vapor is the most prevalent greenhouse gas. Pretending to identify man-made contributions to Global Climate change over decades is preposterous. Pretending that we know enough and have the capability to FEASIBLY affect climate outcomes is just human vanity and hubris. The sociological, political, and psychological barriers are legion against the implementation of ANY feasible attempts to affect Global Climate. Our focus should be on adapting to any change that is occurring, period.
 

Guitar's Cry

Disciple of Pan
He says pollution is blocking the light from escaping the earths atmosphere. Does the sky look dark to you? Even if it was, wouldn't it also block light from entering the atmosphere and the effects would cancel each other out

What do you see coming out of a CO2 canister? Study up on the Carbon Cycle.
 

Guitar's Cry

Disciple of Pan
The use of climate models is highly dependent upon the assumptions about the included variables, the validity of the data upon which the models are built, as well as, the mathematical relationships to each other and to the climate outcomes. Simulations are highly dependent upon the validity of these presumed relationships and are sensitive to feedback processes that may or may not be comprehensively represented. We cannot produce even regional level models of cloud formation in the near term and water vapor is the most prevalent greenhouse gas. Pretending to identify man-made contributions to Global Climate change over decades is preposterous. Pretending that we know enough and have the capability to FEASIBLY affect climate outcomes is just human vanity and hubris. The sociological, political, and psychological barriers are legion against the implementation of ANY feasible attempts to affect Global Climate. Our focus should be on adapting to any change that is occurring, period.

Our focus should be on clean renewable energy and population control. We know enough to understand the devastating effects of pollution aside from climate change and the only reason to not move forward with reducing our reliance on current obsolete energy use is human greed and aversion to change.
 

LegionOnomaMoi

Veteran Member
Premium Member
Is it just a ploy to force things on us we like even less than windows 10?

No. It is primarily based upon the unavoidable fact, discovered ~100 years ago, of the irradiative properties of certain atmospheric gases and the effect that changes in the concentrations of these have on climate. More specifically, modern climate models combine our knowledge of climate systems with simulations of temperature data in order to determine the magnitude of the (almost certainly positive) all-important (net) feedback (parameter). The foundations of the theory predate it and are rather simple. The problem is how increases in emissions relate to increases in atmospheric concentrations and the ways in which such increases change and are changed by the dynamical interactions among and within climate systems, how to construct (simulate) temperature from the various records, etc.



Scientists aren't going to be convinced of something unless their experiments and reproducible experiments yield the same results.

Scientists are usually convinced about results prior to any experiments (which are generally designed to confirm ideas about the nature of some aspect of some model or theory or whatever) and will typically ascribe failures to obtain the expected results to the experimental design and methods. These are then altered until the desired experimental outcome is obtained. Luckily, other researchers often have opposing views about the ideas underlying the experiments. Neither they nor anybody else typically ever reproduce any experiment (reproducibility is a bit of a misnomer; in actuality, it tends to refer not to replications of the same experiment but to some similar experiment utilizing the same logic and inferences and seeing if either of these are problematic). They do put the ideas to the test, however.

A majority of theoretical physicists in particle physics, high energy physics, and cosmology are convinced that string theory provides the correct description of all of fundamental physics, and in particular the unification of quantum mechanics with modern gravitation theories (general relativity and variations/extensions of it). They believe this “theory” to be correct. The problem is not the complete lack of any experimental support for this theory. It isn’t even that nobody knows how such an experiment might be conducted. It’s that nobody knows what the actual theory is supposed to be. That is, there is a rather hazy notion about the nature of the mathematics required to make the ill-defined concepts motivating the theory, but no consistent formulation of the basic equations which ought to (and it is widely believed eventually will) form the foundation of whatever string theory will turn out to be.

The biomedical model of mental illness is almost universally accepted by the medical community and by many neurologists, clinical neuroscientists, clinical psychologists, etc. It not only lacks experimental support, the experimental data that has emerged in thousands of studies since the biomedical model took over has actually completely undermined any hope for the basic, fundamental component of this theory: that there exist a unique, biological pathology underlying each of the discrete diseases defined into existence in the DSM & ICD.

The standard model of particle physics consists of a variety of failures that were fixed post hoc in mathematical ways (e.g., renormalization, group theoretic symmetries, etc.) including the problem of mass: the standard model predicts that no particles have mass. The Higgs mechanism was adopted long before any experimental evidence for it. Since the 2012 announcement of the first evidence for its detection, we haven’t learned anything much about whether the mechanism is actually anything real, or even whether “the Higgs” was even detected. In quantum fields theories, statistical mechanics, etc., heavy use is made of what is called the S-matrix (S for scattering). This was originally the main theoretical tool for an approach to fundamental physics known as the “bootstrap” program in which there were no elementary particles. For reasons that had more to do with mathematical elegance than empirical findings, this program was abandoned in favor of the quark model and a re-adoption of quantized field theories. The S-matrix is still widely used and incredibly important, though, which makes the bootstrap philosophy/program at least less of a failure than the rise and fall of the fifth force in modern physics.

I could go on, but the point is that scientists frequently adhere to theories in spite of hundreds or thousands of contradictory experimental findings, the lack of any experimental evidence, or even the failure to show how these theories could be experimentally tested.

Climate science, and in particular anthropogenic global warming theory, has constantly failed to produce models with predictive power, and relies fundamentally on the failure for our models based upon our (currently limited) understanding of climate systems to “predict” past temperatures without inserting a positive feedback parameter or “forcing” that is supposed to be due to the effect that GHG emissions have on the dynamics of climate systems. Unfortunately, our models have failed so completely that simulations of past temperatures based on proxy data were and are published despite the fact that these have failed to predict the warming of the 20th century, none of our models predicted the current “hiatus” and there is no consensus as to what caused it or even to what extent it is a lack of warming for nearly 20 years.



How am I not surprised that a global warming denier thinks that scientists don't believe in the scientific method.

Scientists don’t believe in any such method, at least none who have reflected about the actual processes, procedures, and methods they used in comparison to the myth of The Scientific Method taught in schools.
 

metis

aged ecumenical anthropologist
When we see 98% of the climate scientists agreeing that most of the global warming has been caused by human action, one can pretty much take that to the bank.

Over the last several decades, other possible causation has gradually been dismissed, as any long-term subscriber to Scientific American, for example, could rather clearly see. The opposition to accepting this is mainly political, and they simply cannot provide one shred of evidence to indicate that these scientists are wrong. However, that won't stop the deniers as they then typically resort to portraying these scientists as being ignorant, crooked, or both, much like so many of the ToE deniers do.

Common sense says we should accept this reality even if we have some doubts, because if we guess wrong and do nothing, there could be hell to pay.
 

YmirGF

Bodhisattva in Recovery
When we see 98% of the climate scientists agreeing that most of the global warming has been caused by human action, one can pretty much take that to the bank.

Over the last several decades, other possible causation has gradually been dismissed, as any long-term subscriber to Scientific American, for example, could rather clearly see. The opposition to accepting this is mainly political, and they simply cannot provide one shred of evidence to indicate that these scientists are wrong. However, that won't stop the deniers as they then typically resort to portraying these scientists as being ignorant, crooked, or both, much like so many of the ToE deniers do.

Common sense says we should accept this reality even if we have some doubts, because if we guess wrong and do nothing, there could be hell to pay.
I agree so much. The only points I'm genuinely interested in these day is what do we do about it. Arguing the so-called "science" is a no-win proposition and not going to get folks anywhere. The real questions are about what happens now and what comes next.
 

Rational Agnostic

Well-Known Member
They say we had an ice age then the world got warmer, But now all a sudden when the world gets warmer it's our fault. "Here, try an electric car, and a lil' mercury in your lightbulbs won't harm ya." Is it just a ploy to force things on us we like even less than windows 10?

Hello, I am new to the forum and thought I would consider adding my input to this topic. There is fairly significant evidence that the average temperature of the earth is increasing, and there is a strong correlation between increased burning of fossil fuels by the human population and increased temperature. Of course, correlation does not always imply causation, however, the consensus among most scientists and statisticians is that the continual warming of the earth is indeed caused (at least partially) by human activities.
 

Kemosloby

Well-Known Member
Premium Member
Hello, I am new to the forum and thought I would consider adding my input to this topic. There is fairly significant evidence that the average temperature of the earth is increasing, and there is a strong correlation between increased burning of fossil fuels by the human population and increased temperature. Of course, correlation does not always imply causation, however, the consensus among most scientists and statisticians is that the continual warming of the earth is indeed caused (at least partially) by human activities.
Scientists came to be scientists by knowing which answers pass the test...
 

Rational Agnostic

Well-Known Member
I respectfully disagree with you. There is much more to becoming a scientist than memorizing answers to tests. In order to attain a degree in any scientific field, one must possess understanding of the scientific topic of his or her field. Mathematics is the foundation of science, and rigorous logic is the foundation of mathematics. Therefore, in order to become a scientist, one needs much more than the ability to memorize answers in order to pass tests; one must have a mind that is trained to operate logically.
 

metis

aged ecumenical anthropologist
I respectfully disagree with you. There is much more to becoming a scientist than memorizing answers to tests. In order to attain a degree in any scientific field, one must possess understanding of the scientific topic of his or her field. Mathematics is the foundation of science, and rigorous logic is the foundation of mathematics. Therefore, in order to become a scientist, one needs much more than the ability to memorize answers in order to pass tests; one must have a mind that is trained to operate logically.
First of all, welcome; and secondly, spot on with the above.
 

Kemosloby

Well-Known Member
Premium Member
I respectfully disagree with you. There is much more to becoming a scientist than memorizing answers to tests. In order to attain a degree in any scientific field, one must possess understanding of the scientific topic of his or her field. Mathematics is the foundation of science, and rigorous logic is the foundation of mathematics. Therefore, in order to become a scientist, one needs much more than the ability to memorize answers in order to pass tests; one must have a mind that is trained to operate logically.
Right and logic tells them to go along with the politically motivated global warming, because that's the way the wind blows. Unless any of them have pointy ears and green blood.
 

Kirran

Premium Member
Right and logic tells them to go along with the politically motivated global warming, because that's the way the wind blows. Unless any of them have pointy ears and green blood.

Except there are the odd few who don't agree with it, and they do fine. They come to about 0.5% of scientists or something like that. But nothing disastrous happens when they deny global warming, there's no threatening conspiracy forcing everyone to toe the line.

You don't seem to realise that to attain a degree in science, let alone a doctorate, requires having conducted independent research and advancing the field. Not just memorisation, rote or otherwise.
 

Rational Agnostic

Well-Known Member
Right and logic tells them to go along with the politically motivated global warming, because that's the way the wind blows. Unless any of them have pointy ears and green blood.

I see no evidence that the study of global warming is politically motivated. As far as pointy ears and green blood are concerned, I'm afraid you went over my head with that.
 

Ben Dhyan

Veteran Member
Hello, I am new to the forum and thought I would consider adding my input to this topic. There is fairly significant evidence that the average temperature of the earth is increasing, and there is a strong correlation between increased burning of fossil fuels by the human population and increased temperature. Of course, correlation does not always imply causation, however, the consensus among most scientists and statisticians is that the continual warming of the earth is indeed caused (at least partially) by human activities.
But no evidence that the said change is ultimately bad for humanity, indeed the earth has been getting greener as the result of the extra CO2 in the atmosphere. The cost of attempted mitigation can not be justified when measured against adaptation. Let the peoples of the world get on with increasing prosperity and adapt to any increased temperature.
 

LegionOnomaMoi

Veteran Member
Premium Member
When we see 98% of the climate scientists agreeing that most of the global warming has been caused by human action, one can pretty much take that to the bank.
Most positions supported by the majority of scientists have turned out to be wrong or fundamentally flawed. The percentage you give is not at all accurate, but is based upon a limited study of limited expressions of views taken to be equivalent and to support AGW by climate scientists. However, most scientists working in this field are actually geologists, astrophysicists, statisticians, etc. The views of those who study climate from a cosmic, astronomical, and/or similar fields which approach the issues from a broader perspective are far more skeptical. And the pathetic failures of climate scientists to produce any basic theory of AGW capable of doing more than fit and fix theory to accord with models/simulations of the past renders the notion that there is any empirical support for any overwhelming consensus moot.
The climate science literature is generally consistent with the IPCC verdicts. However, often such agreement is lip-service: published research affirm s AGW while demonstrating how our evidence doesn't.

Over the last several decades, other possible causation has gradually been dismissed, as any long-term subscriber to Scientific American, for example, could rather clearly see.
Any subscribers to actual relevant literature would find something altogether different. The theory that observed warming is due to GCRs has continued to find empirical support, to the point of the creation, funding, and dedicated resources behind CERN's CLOUD project and lesser, more typical research carried out in labs the world over.
The opposition to accepting this is mainly political, and they simply cannot provide one shred of evidence to indicate that these scientists are wrong.
These scientists have been consistently wrong. The evidence is to be found in their consistent failures to produce a version of AGW that is more than a data fitting model capable of reproducing past temperatures. Of course, in the actual scientific literature one finds plenty of doubts, uncertainties, and contrary findings. These are not generally communicated to the public
 

metis

aged ecumenical anthropologist
Most positions supported by the majority of scientists have turned out to be wrong or fundamentally flawed. The percentage you give is not at all accurate, but is based upon a limited study of limited expressions of views taken to be equivalent and to support AGW by climate scientists. However, most scientists working in this field are actually geologists, astrophysicists, statisticians, etc. The views of those who study climate from a cosmic, astronomical, and/or similar fields which approach the issues from a broader perspective are far more skeptical. And the pathetic failures of climate scientists to produce any basic theory of AGW capable of doing more than fit and fix theory to accord with models/simulations of the past renders the notion that there is any empirical support for any overwhelming consensus moot.
The climate science literature is generally consistent with the IPCC verdicts. However, often such agreement is lip-service: published research affirm s AGW while demonstrating how our evidence doesn't.


Any subscribers to actual relevant literature would find something altogether different. The theory that observed warming is due to GCRs has continued to find empirical support, to the point of the creation, funding, and dedicated resources behind CERN's CLOUD project and lesser, more typical research carried out in labs the world over.

These scientists have been consistently wrong. The evidence is to be found in their consistent failures to produce a version of AGW that is more than a data fitting model capable of reproducing past temperatures. Of course, in the actual scientific literature one finds plenty of doubts, uncertainties, and contrary findings. These are not generally communicated to the public
You can go with your favorite politicians but I'm going with the overwhelming number of scientists who well know that we are in a period of global warming and that human actions are mostly responsible for it. And instead of stereotyping scientists, why don't you post here the scientific evidence that supposedly indicates that they are wrong on this.

BTW, have you ever checked out the NASA, NOAA, NAS, National Geographic, Scientific American, etc. websites? Are they also so terribly wrong on this as well? And exactly which scientific sources are you using?
 

metis

aged ecumenical anthropologist
But no evidence that the said change is ultimately bad for humanity, indeed the earth has been getting greener as the result of the extra CO2 in the atmosphere. The cost of attempted mitigation can not be justified when measured against adaptation. Let the peoples of the world get on with increasing prosperity and adapt to any increased temperature.
Is that why our Department of Defense concluded that maybe as many as 2 billion people worldwide may be affected adversely because of this?
 
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