charlie sc
Well-Known Member
Since you've decided to consider Bem's review after all, I've decided that discussing this with you might not be a waste of my time.
Your first post made this claim:
Now, since you've changed your mind and given a response to Bem's review --- if you'd like to amend your claim to:
While scientific evidence of telepathy has been offered, none has been accepted by the leading mainstream scientific journals.
You'd then be making a claim that I agree is a fact.
Off the top of my head: J.B. Rhine and Charles Honorton, in addition to Bem have offered experiments which were rejected by the mainstream journals.
Bias on the part of mainstream scientists is only part of the problem. It's very difficult to test telepathy. You have a sender and a receiver but only the receivers see the visions. Without an advanced, yet to be invented, fMRI attached to their brains capable of seeing the same thing, other explanations for positive results are possible.
What I said is still correct. I'll explain. The reason I said no evidence is because of the questionable validity in these parapsychology/psi studies. For instance, some of the things to worry about are, are the methodologies well-designed enough to measure psi(remove confounding variables), is p hacking occurring, what are the results of the replications and are there any biases to worry about? Parapsychology studies have been going on for quite a while - as I recall, since the 50s. However, very little evidence has emerged from this. There have been constant changes in methodologies to try accurately measure this desired phenomenon. However, this is not how good science is performed. The data will always lead the researcher not the other way around. As an example, studies on IQ vs religiosity, health and religiosity or the dunning Kruger effect were so substantiated with evidence that they were unquestionable beyond a doubt. They also followed a two-tail approach, so not only could they be found to reject the alternate hypothesis but the reverse could be true(E.G. the religious could have high IQ), which increased it's reliability and validity. Subsequently, further additions increased their explanatory power. This is not the case for parapsychology. If a study is published(if at all: publishing bias)that failed a psi experiment, it just means, "oh, we'll try again because of course psi exists." This is quite a convenience for parapsychologists, because it means they'll always have faith something can be done and will try all sorts of methods to find this anomalous psi ability. Some psychologists use up their valuable time attempting to replicate Bem's psi experiments to no avail (1) (2) and in the meta-analysis they demonstrate those that found evidence and those that did not. Scientists become less and less bothered by these experiments and the need to coddle these ideas. Consequent studies have criticised the the Bayes factor model to be more rigid for larger sample sizes. If any available evidence gets published in psi/parapsychology, like in this case, the effect size is almost always small, which means, even if it's significant, it's questionable what exactly is being measured.
The reason why I said little evidence is because if we were to graciously grant something is going on we (a) need to determine it is actually psi and (b) see if there's another explanation, which why I pasted the quoted from the last reply. Psi is not the only explanation, but many people ignorantly want to believe psi is the only explanation or don’t consider others. There are other explanations for this phenomena, which I'd probably look into later - for fun. So, assuming something is going on, we need to examine the effect size. In Bem's 2011 study, he said, "cross all 100 sessions, participants correctly identified thefuture position of the erotic pictures significantly more frequently than the 50% hit rate expected by chance: 53.1%" This means that even if the there is some kind of psi it's barely by chance. You'd literally lose all your money at a casino if you'd have a 53% chance to win on the flip of a coin. On the 17th toss, you’d eventually get the right answer solely based on your psi powers. You'd have better luck with skill, theft or cheating. Note, the successful replications of his study had even less effect size. Is this really a comprehensible logical progression and good reason for psi/parapschology studies to continue their venture? No, of course not. This is a complete waste of time after years and years of anecdotal claims, psychics claiming all sorts of things as Ecoo pointed out and dead ends from the parapsychology sciences. Is it easy to test psi? It should be! Considering all the anecdotal evidence, this should be the easiest thing in the world, but it's not, apparently.
Undoubtedly, I'm sure there's biases in the scientific community but it's totally overshadowed by the biases portrayed by the people that want the data to fit their world-view. Does this phenomenon need to be studied further? Yes. Should this phenomenon get special privileges? NO, absolutely not. This is one of the weakest field in the sciences for the very fact it's bad science not because there's some conspiracy out to get them
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