I cannot support Murray’s UBI plan at least until I see some numbers showing that it (1) will not leave even more people impoverished, and (2) will generate adequate tax revenues to provide for the ever-growing and aging population and otherwise fund the government. To the best of my reckoning, Murray's plan will fail dramatically on both counts.
Murray proposes giving $13,000 to everyone over age 21 (apparently ~243 million people:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_States ), but reduced amounts to those making $30,000 or more, and taking $3,000 from everyone for health insurance. If, say, 163 million people were to get $13,000 each, and 80 million get on average $8,500 each, that’s an outlay of $2.8 trillion--exactly the amount of total revenues the government collected in 2013 (
https://www.cbo.gov/budget-options/2014/revenue-options ). But evidently just the expenditure on the guaranteed income will not cover the cost of Murray’s plan. Moreover, revenue--the vast majority of which now comes from individual income taxes (47%) and payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare (34%)--would obviously drop precipitously under Murray’s plan.
How does a person with a monthly income of $833 pay rent, utilities, phone, cable and internet, buy food, toiletries, gas and upkeep for a car and car insurance (such persons will generally not be able to afford to live in urban areas where there is public transportation), and other such basics? Apparently many millions of retired people will have their Social Security and Medicare taken way and will be relegated to trying to live on $833 per month; many of these will be people who own homes (therefore with insurance premiums and property taxes to pay, and sometimes suddenly needing to replace the HVAC or roof). What is that but enforced poverty?
Does the proposed health insurance make all drugs, doctor visits, and surgeries absolutely free? $3,000 per year will hardly cover office visits and medical expenses for the average pill-popping American, much less the increased medical expenses of the elderly. Health insurance under the ACA costs much more than $3,000 per year, including sometimes huge deductibles and significant co-pays. Murray’s plan would provide for a total of only $80 billion for health care; Medicare alone costs many times more than that today even for the limited number of people covered (the
federal outlay for Medicare to cover 55 million people was ~$600 billion:
http://kff.org/medicare/fact-sheet/medicare-spending-and-financing-fact-sheet/ ). How many trillions will this new health care scheme cost--that is, how many trillions will it add to the current annual deficit? Undoubtedly greater numbers of idle people will decide they are depressed or anxious and will want to consume increasing amounts of the ineffective and debilitating drugs that are claimed to cure these problems.
I’m certain $833 per month plus a part-time minimum wage will be insufficient to pay for living expenses
and college tuition. So, either the system of student loans will have to continue, or free college tuition will add large deficits to the budget and national debt. Of course, people would be reluctant to take out a loan for any reason in a dead economy.
It is true that such a UBI plan might encourage people to couple-up or find a roommate--but forced relationships often don’t work well, and several liability on the remainder of an apartment lease is hell for the person who gets left holding the bag.
Is $20,000 per year adequate to provide for a family of two unemployed adults and their 7 children? Hardly. What happens to those children?
Is there any nursing home you can get into for $833 per month? I doubt it. At least I doubt you would want to sleep in that infestation of bed bugs.
I take it the writer of the
WSJ article is the Charles Murray who wrote
The Bell Curve. I am not favorably impressed by his use of logic or facts by which he formulated his thesis in that book. I am not alone in this.