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Guess the war is a reality
- Thread starter Nimos
- Start date
Oh, boy....the world needs another war.
Twilight Hue
Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
Not till spring. Give it at least another month or two if even at all.
exchemist
Veteran Member
It's what I expected. He's hoping that by restricting, for now, his land grab to these provinces, there won't be the appetite in the West for inflicting the full range of sanctions. Germany especially may wonder if they have to give up their gas supply over these 2 provinces that were semi-independent anyway. Putin will hope the reaction is muted. But Plan B will be that if reaction is not muted and full sanctions are applied, he will go for broke and try to take the whole country.
Twilight Hue
Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
I vote for a reality show where the politicians do the fighting themselves instead of using other people.
With about 40 going on at the moment its amazing that anyone notices.
Trailblazer
Veteran Member
I hope a war does not break out but it appears as if it is very likely.
However, I am reticent to believe the U.S news reports since they tend to blow everything up out of proportion.
Nimos
Well-Known Member
Yeah obviously we have to wait and see, but at least he has the excuse he need. And given that he have given green light for his military to engage in "peace" keeping stuff in the two areas, then he can excuse moving troops in by claiming that Ukraine are being the aggressor. From what we have seen in the past of what he is willing to do, I think he will do it and use it as an excuse to invade Ukraine or at least take those two areas. But again, we have to see.I hope a war does not break out but it appears as if it is very likely.
However, I am reticent to believe the U.S news reports since they tend to blow everything up out of proportion.
I often don't agree with you but on this point I really like that idea.
This one has been rather prominent in the news.
Audie
Veteran Member
Its already started, no distinct time
Yazata
Active Member
Larger war might or might not break out in a few days. I don't know. I'm following events very closely though.
In my opinion the best source of raw information on events on the ground in eastern Ukraine are the daily reports of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine. This is the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe and they have a whole crew of civilian monitors equipped with observation drones patrolling the "ceasefire" lines between the Ukraine government and the Separatists. They publish reports on the things they've seen almost every day. Their reports don't include all the hysterical political "analysis" and moral posturing that infest the mainstream journalistic media, just the raw data. (The OSCE is comprised of all the countries of the EU, plus the US, UK, Canada, Russia, Ukraine and a bunch of other countries.)
OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine.
Here's their latest report published Monday 2-21-22 (information it contains as of Sunday 2-20-22):
https://www.osce.org/files/2022-02-20-21 Daily Report_ENG.pdf?itok=82567
The situation seems to be pretty heavy firing all along the "ceasefire" line, but no troop movements across the line at this time. The firing is small arms, heavy machine guns and various kinds of artillery. It's coming from both sides and appears intended to cause disruption and consternation on the opposite side. Harassment fire. It's nothing new and has been continuing for years, but it seems to have increased noticeably in the last few days. One more strategic objective seems to be the water filtration plant for the city of Donetsk, the largest city in the Separatist area. It's apparently been put out of commission because of Ukrainian government shelling from across the "ceasefire" line about 5 km/3 mi away. But lots of Separatist harassment fire is falling in government controlled areas too. It looks to me like neither side is particularly righteous in this regard.
The media has been making a lot of a supposed evacuation of civilians from the Separatist area. The monitors have noted increased automobile and bus traffic out across the nearby Russian border, but it doesn't sound like hundreds of thousands of people fleeing. But those observations are dated Sunday and maybe it's picked up today.
There hasn't been any big obvious movement of Russian regular army into the Separatist areas, but those areas are bristling with military equipment including tanks which must have come from somewhere. That's been there for some time though. There doesn't seem to have been any big obvious reinforcement of Ukrainian army forces on the other side either.
So while tension is high and people on both sides seemingly want to ratchet it up, there don't seem to be any really obvious preparations for immanent war either. Of course the Separatist areas are quite small. There are large Russian regular military not far from the other side of the Russian border. They could cross the Separatist areas in a matter of hours, conduct a forward passage through the Separatist lines and engage the Ukrainian army in less than a day.
With that in mind, there aren't any reports of military aircraft overhead. The Separatists don't have any airforce of their own and there aren't any reports of Russian or Ukrainian aircraft over the disputed areas. I would expect that if Russia intends to attack the Ukrainian army in that area, the first sign would be Russian attempts to establish control of the sky overhead and air attacks on opposing Ukrainian forces. That hasn't happened... yet.
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Interesting that all the others are not news worthy though.
It seems almost inevitable that some new fighting is going to take place, given that the aim is probably to take over both of these regions - not the case at the moment for the separatists. The space between them and Crimea looks next most likely to be fought over, even if the stomach to attempt to take over the whole of the Ukraine might be lacking.
We Europeans hate war.
My country will say no to any war.
We have neither time nor money and men to waste on useless stuff that has nothing to do with us.
And btw... let the people of those regions decide.
exchemist
Veteran Member
Nobody is suggesting that we Europeans fight Russia over Ukraine.
Hopefully.
Nimos
Well-Known Member
That might be true, one could also imagine that Russia moves in ground troops first only to force Ukraine to stop attacking as there are now official Russian military in the area and should Ukraine attack, Russia have the excuse they need to say that they are simply defending themselves and that Ukraine is attacking Russia. And at that point we could see planes etc.
If they did that, it would put Ukraine in a difficult position, because I think they are well aware that Putin is looking for an excuse. And keep in mind that Putin have already declared that Russian troops could move there as peacekeeping forces. Which again, could be used to make Ukraine look like the aggressors and Russia is simply defending itself. If they send in planes first then that would be seem as a clear attack on Ukraine, and I don't get the impression that Putin want to play it out like that.
exchemist
Veteran Member
The risk is Putin next tries to destabilise NATO member countries which were former members of the Warsaw Pact, such as Romania or the Baltic States. If he tries little green men in those countries we will be at war.
The Baltic States in particular will be, rightly, very worried. Whatever happens, we will have at the least a new cold war and a new diversion of domestic budgets to military expenditure.
My sources tell me that our diplomats assure us that Putin has never dared think such things.