Harris pulls ahead of Trump in Iowa in the 11th hour

[It Aint Necessarily So]

An ominous portent for the Trump campaign is the last minute shifting tides in Iowa, a state never considered in play for the Democrats before now - a state Trump won in 2016 and 2024. From Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how

"The results follow a September Iowa Poll that showed Trump with a 4-point lead over Harris and a June Iowa Poll showing him with an 18-point lead over Democratic President Joe Biden, who was the presumed Democratic nominee at the time."

So how do we understand this? It's just a single poll, but one of a few demonstrating a trend over the past few months and which shows a sharp uptick for Harris occurring very recently. If similar changes have occurred in the seven tossup states, the election will be a landslide for Harris, who would be expected t take 6-7/7 of them, and maybe Iowa and another red state or two not though to be in play.

Here are the results of a Google search of "Ann Selzer poll in Iowa" after selecting "News:"

"Ann Selzer poll in Iowa - Google Search"

We'll see how meaningful this is in two days plus the time it takes to name the winner. It sure is encouraging to those terrified that MAGA will elect Trump. It seems less likely now given these data assuming that the Republicans don't steal the election abetted by the Supreme Court. Harris has to win by several percent to have a hope that the Supreme Court can't give the election to Trump as they did in the very close Gore-Bush contest.

That doesn't mean that the current Court won't steal the election for Trump even following a blowout if given the chance, but if that's in the cards, democracy in America is already gone and none of the voting mattered even if we don't know it yet.

Let's see what kind of a country America actually is now. We know what it's been, but just as is the case with climate, things are very different now, and the past no longer predicts the future

 

[Regiomontanus]

An ominous portent for the Trump campaign is the last minute shifting tides in Iowa, a sate never considered in play for the Democrats before now - a state Trump won in 2016 and 2024. From Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how

View attachment 99443

Margin of error?

"Pulls ahead"?

Don't get me wrong, this is good news for Harris. But I doubt the margin of error is less than 3%.

 

[Subduction Zone]

Margin of error?

"Pulls ahead"?

Don't get me wrong, this is good news for Harris. But I doubt the margin of error is less than 3%.

Its margin of error is 3.4%. The patten should be scaring the crap into Trump's diaper. This same company had Trump 18% ahead of Biden when he was running in June. A September poll showed Trump up with a four point lead over Harris in September. It appears that Iowans can see that Trump is going into a tailspin.

 

[Quintessence]

A few reminders to contextualize this:

• Iowa was one of the first states in the nation to legalize gay marriage.
• Iowa was (and still is) a forerunner in alternative energy (specifically wind)
• Iowa went to Obama. Not just once, but twice
• Our Republican governor calling a special session too strip half the state population of basic human rights is deeply unpopular, as are a number of her other anti-human policies such as her thinly-veiled efforts to destroy our public school system

Iowa has been a purple state for a long time - since I've lived here which is neigh on four decades now.

 

[Twilight Hue]

Iowa is yet another state that's going to fall in the freedom index.

If they want to make a colossal stupid move like that , then Iowans collectively deserve whatever misery that's coming towards them.

Something wicked this way comes.

 

[Quintessence]

Iowa is yet another state that's going to fall in the freedom index.

We already have - because of "Republican" leadership. Just a few examples of "Republican" legislation that has destroyed our freedoms:

• Women no longer have the right to choose and are forced to give birth by the state
• Censorship of public spaces has risen dramatically with school book bans and attacks on public libraries
• Children can no longer use nicknames in school without parental permission
• Services that enhance the freedom and opportunities of protected classes are being systematically defunded and shut down
• Recreational marijuana still isn't legalized in spite of broad public support

 

[Argentbear]

Iowa is yet another state that's going to fall in the freedom index.

exercising the freedom to chose a presidential candidate makes Iowa less free?

 

[Quintessence]

exercising the freedom to chose a presidential candidate makes Iowa less free?

Oh, that reminds me - the "Republican" party of Iowa also couldn't help messing with our election laws here. In spite of there being nothing wrong with them and no problems with any of it. The worst bit by far is the change to how mail-in ballots are counted.

It used to be you were free to mail in your ballot on election day - so long as it was postmarked on election day it was counted. They got rid of that freedom.

Now, if it is not received by election day your vote does not count. This means that circumstances beyond your control could cause your vote not to be counted. You can't trust that your vote will be counted anymore. And in-person voting is always very dicey here because we have this thing called winter. Granted, global warming has made it so we barely even have that in early November these days, but instead we get something worse - ice storms.

 

[Alien826]

Children can no longer use nicknames in school without parental permission

That's weird, sounds more like a PC thing ....

<Looks it up>

OK it's a Trans thing that backfired!

Parental consent for nicknames? Many Iowa schools say 'yes' as they implement new parental

Part of the new parental rights law requires schools to let parents know if their child asks for accommodation intended to affirm the child's gender identity. T

cbs2iowa.com

 

[anna.]

So how do we understand this? It's just a single poll, but one of a few demonstrating a trend over the past few months and which shows a sharp uptick for Harris occurring very recently. If similar changes have occurred in the seven tossup states, the election will be a landslide for Harris, who would be expected t take 6-7/7 of them, and maybe Iowa and another red state or two not though to be in play.

Apparently right-leaning polls have been overly generous to Trump. When aggregated, they skew the aggregate right, which isn't accurate, and explains in part why the red wave of 2022 never materialized, and won't in 2024 either. But the polls favorable to Trump will boost the narrative that he's winning, and that if he loses, it's because the Dems cheated.

But suspicions have been voiced over a spate of recent polls, mostly commissioned in battleground states from groups with Republican links, that mainly show Trump leading. The projection of surging Trump support as election day nears has drawn confident predictions from him and his supporters.​

​

Republicans preparing to reject US election result if Trump loses, warn strategists

Polling experts point to ‘fake polls’ exaggerating his support, with baseless lawsuits alleging fraud already filed

www.theguardian.com

I'm still optimistic of a Harris win with room to spare.

 

[Alien826]

Apparently right-leaning polls have been overly generous to Trump. When aggregated, they skew the aggregate right, which isn't accurate, and explains in part why the red wave of 2022 never materialized, and won't in 2024 either. But the polls favorable to Trump will boost the narrative that he's winning, and that if he loses, it's because the Dems cheated.

But suspicions have been voiced over a spate of recent polls, mostly commissioned in battleground states from groups with Republican links, that mainly show Trump leading. The projection of surging Trump support as election day nears has drawn confident predictions from him and his supporters.​

​

Republicans preparing to reject US election result if Trump loses, warn strategists

Polling experts point to ‘fake polls’ exaggerating his support, with baseless lawsuits alleging fraud already filed

www.theguardian.com

I'm still optimistic of a Harris win with room to spare.

I have a friend in England that I Zoom with every week. He told me about something he had read that claimed that news agencies were deliberately skewing the numbers by weighting polls and leaving those with low weighting (that is with low likelihood of accuracy) in the aggregate numbers. I have no idea where he got this from, maybe it's published in England. The motivation would be to maintain the idea of a very close race to keep people viewing their endless opinion pieces.

What you said made me think of this, so I'm wondering if you have heard about it, or have evidence that supports it in some way.

 

[Kathryn]

Polls. Well, I know this much - the person I voted for is not going to win and that's OK by me.

 

[It Aint Necessarily So]

Iowans collectively deserve whatever misery that's coming towards them.

You're missing the broader point. This is likely a bellwether for what has likely happened in multiple if not all states in these final days of the campaign, where Trump has gone on a racist and sexist rampage. Harris hadn't been able to move the needle for weeks, but it appears that Trump did in his "closing argument."

Harris may get Iowa's electoral college votes, and maybe discover that she has won a few other states also not thought to be in play, but if the only effect is that Trump loses 6 or 7 of the 7 recognized swing states, he's lost and lost in a landslide.

But you still have hope - hope that the Supreme Court is so corrupt that it agrees to hear the appeals surely to follow any unfavorable-for-MAGA election results and awards the election to Trump anyway.

What will you think of your country then? The world will see banana republic and a failed state.

Also, any misery that befalls Iowans following a Harris victory, which would be none (but I don't expect you to believe that) would befall you in NY as well, just as any misery MAGA or SCOTUS unleashed on America would befall you in NY as well.

 

[anna.]

I have a friend in England that I Zoom with every week. He told me about something he had read that claimed that news agencies were deliberately skewing the numbers by weighting polls and leaving those with low weighting (that is with low likelihood of accuracy) in the aggregate numbers. I have no idea where he got this from, maybe it's published in England. The motivation would be to maintain the idea of a very close race to keep people viewing their endless opinion pieces.

What you said made me think of this, so I'm wondering if you have heard about it, or have evidence that supports it in some way.

I've absolutely heard this, but it's no surprise that my link above comes from The Guardian. I appreciate The Guardian, by the way.

Anyway - I've said before that corporate media has abdicated their duty to inform, they are beholden to the corporation or the billionaire owner who wants the clicks and views that generate ad revenue more than they want truth. In the Trump era they were so bent on the 'appearance' of neutrality that they sacrificed truth for false equivalencies. Access to Trump was more important than a clear-eyed presentation of Trump's words and actions, as they sane-washed him into something that was a tortured representation of normal, when he wasn't, and isn't, normal at all. He is historically abnormal, and they have literally been the courtiers reporting that the Emperor was, in fact, wearing clothes.

Am I bitter? Maybe a little. I do have independent sources I trust.

I understand the great importance of a free press to speak truth to power, it's just that corporate news abdicated their responsibility.

 

[Alien826]

I've absolutely heard this, but it's no surprise that my link above comes from The Guardian. I appreciate The Guardian, by the way.

Thanks, that's interesting. I like the Guardian too, btw.

Anyway - I've said before that corporate media has abdicated their duty to inform, they are beholden to the corporation or the billionaire owner who wants the clicks and views that generate ad revenue more than they want truth. In the Trump era they were so bent on the 'appearance' of neutrality that they sacrificed truth for false equivalencies. Access to Trump was more important than a clear-eyed presentation of Trump's words and actions, as they sane-washed him into something that was a tortured representation of normal, when he wasn't, and isn't, normal at all. He is historically abnormal, and they have literally been the courtiers reporting that the Emperor was, in fact, wearing clothes.

Agreed. It's been something that has bothered me (an ex-pat Brit living in the US) how it's not obvious to all that Trump is deranged. I would have expected him to disappear in a gale of laughter, given the ridiculous things he says. And that's all anyone should need, imo, his own words. I'm not against traditional conservatism. I don't agree with it but people are entitled to their opinions. But this is just crazy.

Am I bitter? Maybe a little. I do have independent sources I trust.

I understand the great importance of a free press to speak truth to power, it's just that corporate news abdicated their responsibility.

Yes.

 

[crossfire]

A few reminders to contextualize this:

• Iowa was one of the first states in the nation to legalize gay marriage.
• Iowa was (and still is) a forerunner in alternative energy (specifically wind)
• Iowa went to Obama. Not just once, but twice
• Our Republican governor calling a special session too strip half the state population of basic human rights is deeply unpopular, as are a number of her other anti-human policies such as her thinly-veiled efforts to destroy our public school system

Iowa has been a purple state for a long time - since I've lived here which is neigh on four decades now.

Are they going to flip a couple of US House seats?
Poll shows democrat with 16 point lead in 1st congressional district, and a 7 point lead in the 3rd district.

Iowa Poll: Democrats are preferred over Republicans in 2 of 4 congressional districts

Likely Iowa voters prefer a Democratic candidate over a Republican in Iowa’s competitive 1st and 3rd congressional districts, a new Iowa Poll shows.

www.desmoinesregister.com

 

[anna.]

Agreed. It's been something that has bothered me (an ex-pat Brit living in the US) how it's not obvious to all that Trump is deranged. I would have expected him to disappear in a gale of laughter, given the ridiculous things he says. And that's all anyone should need, imo, his own words. I'm not against traditional conservatism. I don't agree with it but people are entitled to their opinions. But this is just crazy.

I can look to the conservative build up to the culmination of Trump from the 80s to 2015, I can look at the spread of misinformation amplified through social media, the influence of Christian nationalism, the backlash to the first Black president, the Rush Limbaugh years, the white majority grievances, the Clinton body count segueing into QAnon... so many different facets. And yet... for the life of me I don't know why they can't look at his orange face, his ridiculous hair, his hands playing an invisible accordion, and his crazy, rambling, disjointed confabulations and not allow themselves to admit that this imagined political messiah is nothing more than an addled carnival barker. How do they not see it.

 

[Quintessence]

That's weird, sounds more like a PC thing ....

<Looks it up>

OK it's a Trans thing that backfired!

Not the only case example of this irrational witch hunt against less than 1% of the population doing collateral damage that's just stupid - it's also why we have new censorship policies eliminating classics of literature from school libraries, elimination of offices that support marginalized students, and state policing of language use on things that are much ado about nothing. Like, we have actual problems that are in dire need of addressing like the cancer crisis and horrible water quality in the state.

 

[anna.]

Michigan State University today, waiting for Kamala Harris

 

[Quintessence]

Are they going to flip a couple of US House seats?
Poll shows democrat with 16 point lead in 1st congressional district, and a 7 point lead in the 3rd district.

I don't know - when the district maps got redrawn a while back the fairer map got tossed out in favor of one with some gerrymandering favoring the party in power at the time (aka, not democrats). What was originally a map that would have created one safe red district, one safe blue district, and two more that were contested (one leaned red, one leaned blue) got tossed in favor of... this nonsense that gave us zero blue representatives in spite of the state having a roughly 50-50 (or maybe like 45-55) political split (purple state!).

We need election reform so darned bad in this country. Ranked choice, for starters, Which, naturally, team red has forwarded efforts to ban in Iowa. It didn't go anywhere (yet) but that it was even tried is... ugh.