Herd Immunity -The World May Never Reach It Against Covid-19

[We Never Know]

I thought I would post one more thread before I take a break for a while.
Stay safe everyone


"As Covid-19 surged last year, governments worldwide touted the hope of “herd immunity,” a promised land where the virus stopped spreading exponentially because enough people were protected against it. That’s now looking like a fantasy.

The thinking was that the pandemic would ebb and then mostly fade once a chunk of the population, possibly 60% to 70%, was vaccinated or had resistance through a previous infection. But new variants like delta, which are more transmissible and been shown to evade these protections in some cases, are moving the bar for herd immunity near impossibly high levels.

Delta is spurring widening outbreaks in countries like the U.S. and U.K. that have already been walloped by the virus, and presumably have some measure of natural immunity in addition to vaccination rates of more than 50%. It’s also hitting nations that have until now managed to keep the virus out almost entirely, like Australia and China.

This month, the Infectious Diseases Society of America estimated that delta had pushed the threshold for herd immunity to well over 80% and possibly close to 90%. Public health officials like Anthony Fauci have drawn controversy by shifting the goalposts over the past year, increasing the number of people who need protection before hitting herd immunity. Meanwhile, vaccine hesitancy and supply issues mean most countries won’t get close to even the original numbers.

“Will we get to herd immunity? No, very unlikely, by definition,” said Greg Poland, director of the Vaccine Research Group at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota.

Even a vaccination rate of as high as 95% wouldn’t achieve it, he said. “It is a neck and neck race between the development of ever more highly transmissible variants which develop the capacity to evade immunity, and immunization rates.”

The World May Never Reach Herd Immunity Against Covid-19

 

[exchemist]

I thought I would post one more thread before I take a break for a while.
Stay safe everyone


"As Covid-19 surged last year, governments worldwide touted the hope of “herd immunity,” a promised land where the virus stopped spreading exponentially because enough people were protected against it. That’s now looking like a fantasy.

The thinking was that the pandemic would ebb and then mostly fade once a chunk of the population, possibly 60% to 70%, was vaccinated or had resistance through a previous infection. But new variants like delta, which are more transmissible and been shown to evade these protections in some cases, are moving the bar for herd immunity near impossibly high levels.

Delta is spurring widening outbreaks in countries like the U.S. and U.K. that have already been walloped by the virus, and presumably have some measure of natural immunity in addition to vaccination rates of more than 50%. It’s also hitting nations that have until now managed to keep the virus out almost entirely, like Australia and China.

This month, the Infectious Diseases Society of America estimated that delta had pushed the threshold for herd immunity to well over 80% and possibly close to 90%. Public health officials like Anthony Fauci have drawn controversy by shifting the goalposts over the past year, increasing the number of people who need protection before hitting herd immunity. Meanwhile, vaccine hesitancy and supply issues mean most countries won’t get close to even the original numbers.

“Will we get to herd immunity? No, very unlikely, by definition,” said Greg Poland, director of the Vaccine Research Group at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota.

Even a vaccination rate of as high as 95% wouldn’t achieve it, he said. “It is a neck and neck race between the development of ever more highly transmissible variants which develop the capacity to evade immunity, and immunization rates.”

The World May Never Reach Herd Immunity Against Covid-19

Yes this fits my understanding.

What we can reasonably hope for, however, is that if everyone has either been vaccinated or has caught the disease itself, the population will have enough resistance to enable us to treat it like 'flu' and just tolerate it. But it will mean booster vaccinations and hospital provision to treat severe cases, for the long term.

And perhaps, those of us living beyond 80 need to resign ourselves to being carried off by it, rather than by more traditional old age conditions......

 

[Shadow Wolf]

And perhaps, those of us living beyond 80 need to resign ourselves to being carried off by it, rather than by more traditional old age conditions......

I would be pushing for reckless manslaughter against people not taking this seriously and openly and freely being around those high risk.

 

[Brickjectivity]

Unfortunately it isn't flu. Flu is more obvious when you catch it. The virus has reinvented itself ten times since it started spreading. This could be something that increases in lethality because of its long incubation period and ability to infect widely. This can go round and round indefinitely jumping from humans to animals, back to humans, back to animals.

 

[exchemist]

Unfortunately it isn't flu. Flu is more obvious when you catch it. The virus has reinvented itself ten times since it started spreading. This could be something that increases in lethality because of its long incubation period and ability to infect widely. This can go round and round indefinitely jumping from humans to animals, back to humans, back to animals.

'flu' does just the same. It's different every year.