How serious do you take the Corvid-19 virus?

[exchemist]

Well the Tories have had a run of bad'uns, but would one really want Corbyn in charge?

Indeed, it was an invidious choice, but it is a fair criticism of our political system that the choice was between these two clunkers.

 

[exchemist]

Yep, when the US releases the vaccine that is being tested right now.

It will disappear like the bubonic plague has.

There won't be a vaccine released for general use for about a year, so I understand.

 

[shmogie]

It's certainly the hell of a conspiracy theory.

The Wiki article on the Wuhan Virology Lab has this to say about that:

"The Institute was rumored as a source for the 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak as a result of allegations of bioweapon research,[14][15] which was debunked as a conspiracy theory by The Washington Post in a piece titled: "Experts debunk fringe theory linking China’s coronavirus to weapons research".[5][14] The Post cited U.S. experts who explained why the Institute was not suitable for bioweapon research, that most countries had abandoned bioweapons as fruitless, and that there was no evidence that the virus was genetically engineered.[5][14] In February 2020, The Financial Times reported from virus expert and global lead coronavirus investigator, Trevor Bedford, who said that "The evidence we have is that the mutations [in the virus] are completely consistent with natural evolution".[16]

During January and February 2020, the Institute was subject to further conspiracy theories, and concerns that it was the source of the outbreak through accidental leakage,[17] which it publicly refuted.[18] Members of the Institute's research teams were also subject to various conspiracy theories,[19][20] including Shi, who made various public statements defending the Institute.[21] While Ebright refuted several of conspiracy theories regarding the WIV, he told BBC China that this did not represent the possibility of the virus being "completely ruled out" from entering the population due to a laboratory accident.[17]"

So, not 100% ruled out that a natural virus got out from there but seemingly unlikely - and certainly nothing to do with biological warfare.

Just a weird co incidence. As a retired criminal investigator, our rule was that coincidences were extremely suspect.

The Chinese government facility refuted the claim that that it had an accidental leakage of the virus,

Well heck, they would never lie about something like this !

So, it is a conspiracy theory to think it is suspicious that a large virology lab smack dab in the town where the outbreak began may have been involved in the outbreak somehow.

Lets see, how many towns and cities in China, how many virus research facilities. X number of cities and towns, that number of red ping pong balls. Y number of blue ping pong balls for the virology research facilities.

Red and blue balls thoroughly mixed. The young lady with a blindfold gets to draw two balls at a time. One wonders how many draws it would take to draw one red, and one blue ball.

I am still suspicious

 

[shmogie]

There won't be a vaccine released for general use for about a year, so I understand.

9 months to a year, correct. One is being tested with volunteer subjects now, but I understand there is a lot to getting it right, hence the time element.

 

[shmogie]

Yes, Nicholls is "preparing" for a similar eventuality over here too, though not yet put into practice. So far they have suspended the sign of peace and emptied the holy water stoups.

I was wondering what would happen to the Good Friday service, for instance. We can't have the whole parish kissing the foot of the cross, as normal. I have been asked to sing the Narrator, in the plainsong Passion, but I'm now wondering whether that will go ahead. We're still a month out and this thing is ramping up exponentially. The doubling rate is apparently ~ 5 days. We could be in serious lockdown by Holy Week.

I think God will understand.

 

[sun rise]

For a UK paper, but the problem is the same in general:

It is not that Corvid-19 is properly not that lethal. It is that we have no herd-immunity and the rate of transmission if unchecked in regards to the capacity of a given healthcare system.

Regards
Mikkel

That's a winner and then some. It's exactly why people should be doing what they are, panic or no.

 

[sun rise]

I picked <very serious>, but I'm not at all worried.
Just taking precautions appropriate for a curmudgeon,
& watching it all in fascination.
I have been stocking up on rare early steam engines though.

I'm waiting for you to get all steamed up.

 

[sun rise]

It 's a manufactured event like 9/11. Most likely it's a multipurpose event, still have some organic pop corn left.

I don't live in your world and I'm utterly glad about that.

 

[sun rise]

The above sent to another......

Sorry to hear about your cancelled choral event at Southwark Cathedral. And your dinner afterwards.

@Amanaki tells me that there are circa 2200 cases in the US, with 50 deaths and 12 recoveries. Obviously we cannot know how many unknown mild cases there are, but if 50% of the population gets this illness to the same level as those 2200, the death rate in the US could reach over 3 million. I think the maths equates to 3.75 million, but I just cannot believe that. Can't.

Worldwide, I can see why Sir Vallance mentioned the Spanish flu of 1920.......

Given the abominable failure with testing until just now, we really have no idea how many cases there are. Even people who got sick with it could not get tested. And I wonder how many deaths were not recognized as being due to COVID-19.

I'm extrapolating from South Korea which is the one country that nailed testing. They have 157.7 cases per million people which would mean that we're on the order of 50,000 cases in the US. But if we're on Italy's trajectory, with about 350 cases per million, that would put us on the path for on the order of 125,000 cases.

The number is of course higher because even in those countries, not everyone is getting tested.

 

[sun rise]

I don't see it as false or not serious etc. When I looked it up, it's something I wouldn't want to get-respiratory disease. I'm just surprised how many people outside the immediate area are closing down schools and wearing masks etc. They act like "it's airborne" means it can cross highway 66 for 45 miles and end up in our little bitty town to knock people on the ground since we're not quorentined. The gravity of the situation, I get. The reaction is appalling.

People are wearing masks walking alone outside. That's just silly at best.

 

[sun rise]

We need to think a bit what we mean when we speak of "deaths" due to this virus. Very old people are carried off by a range of conditions, and respiratory disease is one of them. If a large proportion of the deaths turn out to be simply carrying off those who would have died of something else within the next year anyway, I'm not sure it is such a tragedy as it might as first seem. Death is an absolute word but what we really need to think of, perhaps, is by how much people's lives may be shortened.

We now have 21 deaths in the UK, and according to what I have read, all of them have been people with "underlying health conditions", mostly very elderly, though I think there was a woman in her 50s who was already unwell. My father is 92 and in a nursing home. If he gets it, it will kill him for sure, but that won't actually be a tragedy, for him or the family.

The question I have is whether the vast majority of "deaths" will be in that sort of category, i.e. slightly hastening an inevitable end, or will many of them be people arbitrarily cut down in the prime of life, with dependents.

So people who might die 10 years or more early are in a different category from those who would die decades early. In a strictly number's sense, it's a point. But not one I share in human terms.

 

[sun rise]

Do what the experts say to do, then don,t worry.

If you are doing all you should and can do, worry will change nothing, and therefore is a total waste of time.

This too shall pass.

Worry as an emotion never does any good. Taking reasonable action does good.

 

[Quintessence]

I take it as seriously as my job is requiring me to. I'll be more interested when more humans start talking about the elephant on the room without being accused of having "poor taste" or some such nonsense.

 

[sun rise]

As others have stated, I'm more worried about the impact on the economy than the disease itself.

I'm particularly worried about people's reactions to having to do without a few things for awhile.

On the other hand, I can see some potential positives to the inevitable lifestyle changes this thing is going to impose on us and I'm actually excited about some of those.

I agree. Forget about the health effects and look at the societal effects. After 9/11, things changed drastically in the USA and for the world. This is a shock to our system at least as powerful as 9/11.

It will of course take some time for the changes to manifest fully, but I'm also excited that some good will inevitably come out of this.

 

[leov]

Given the abominable failure with testing until just now, we really have no idea how many cases there are. Even people who got sick with it could not get tested. And I wonder how many deaths were not recognized as being due to COVID-19.

I'm extrapolating from South Korea which is the one country that nailed testing. They have 157.7 cases per million people which would mean that we're on the order of 50,000 cases in the US. But if we're on Italy's trajectory, with about 350 cases per million, that would put us on the path for on the order of 125,000 cases.

The number is of course higher because even in those countries, not everyone is getting tested.

we , everyone, have this thing in our body for years.

 

[leov]

I don't live in your world and I'm utterly glad about that.

you can have this one , i go with mine.

 

[mikkel_the_dane]

That's a winner and then some. It's exactly why people should be doing what they are, panic or no.

If you want to, I can tell you what is behind that top part of the red curve. It ain't pretty.

 

[sun rise]

If you want to, I can tell you what is behind that top part of the red curve. It ain't pretty.

I'm utterly uninterested in unproveable conspiracy theories.

 

[mikkel_the_dane]

I'm utterly uninterested in unproveable conspiracy theories.

No, I am former medic of the poor bloody infantry. I understand triage.

Regards
Mikkel

 

[exchemist]

Just a weird co incidence. As a retired criminal investigator, our rule was that coincidences were extremely suspect.

The Chinese government facility refuted the claim that that it had an accidental leakage of the virus,

Well heck, they would never lie about something like this !

So, it is a conspiracy theory to think it is suspicious that a large virology lab smack dab in the town where the outbreak began may have been involved in the outbreak somehow.

Lets see, how many towns and cities in China, how many virus research facilities. X number of cities and towns, that number of red ping pong balls. Y number of blue ping pong balls for the virology research facilities.

Red and blue balls thoroughly mixed. The young lady with a blindfold gets to draw two balls at a time. One wonders how many draws it would take to draw one red, and one blue ball.

I am still suspicious

Yes but you are not a virologist or an epidemiologist. You would need to consult people with that expertise if you were investigating this for real.

I tend to be very sceptical of theories that, at a time of crisis, seem to apportion blame, especially to foreigners. (Much as I detest Xi and everything he stands for, of course).