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Human ‘behavioural crisis’ at root of climate breakdown, say scientists

ajay0

Well-Known Member
New research paper claims unless demand for resources is reduced, many other innovations are just a sticking plaster.


https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/13/human-behavioural-crisis-at-root-of-climate-breakdown-say-scientists


https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00368504231201372


Record heat, record emissions, record fossil fuel consumption. One month out from Cop28, the world is further than ever from reaching its collective climate goals. At the root of all these problems, according to recent research, is the human “behavioural crisis”, a term coined by an interdisciplinary team of scientists.

“We’ve socially engineered ourselves the way we geoengineered the planet,” says Joseph Merz, lead author of a new paper which proposes that climate breakdown is a symptom of ecological overshoot, which in turn is caused by the deliberate exploitation of human behaviour.
 

Secret Chief

Veteran Member
unless demand for resources is reduced
That seems to me to be a statement of the obvious or else it is a lie being promulgated by a Soros-funded cabal of the hidden elite - freedom hating communists assisted by freemasons and alien lizard people. And Jews.

From the Guardian article:
"Humanity would currently need 1.7 Earths to maintain consumption of resources at a level the planet’s biocapacity can regenerate."
 
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Pete in Panama

Well-Known Member
New research paper claims unless demand for resources is reduced, many other innovations are just a sticking plaster.

Human ‘behavioural crisis’ at root of climate breakdown, say scientists

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00368504231201372
Their take is correct that a climate crisis does exist and it's caused by people being manipulated. Where I differ is that the "overshoot" they mention is the over reaction to an unproven geophysical danger and this mindless hysteria is what's feeding the elites.

The good news is that this appears to be mostly noise from a few. Most folks live their lives and ignore the climate silliness.
 

exchemist

Veteran Member
Well yes, sort of, but I must admit I find this rather an axe-grinding, yoghourt-weaving take on the situation.

I find it unhelpful to talk in terms of "manipulation" by evil capitalist marketers. There is a danger of outsourcing ownership of the problem to some convenient “other” that can be demonised, instead of acknowledging that it is our own behaviours and lifestyles that need to be addressed. (This happens with climate change for example, which is too often blamed on evil oil companies when in reality it is the way we have chosen to live that is primarily responsible, not to mention the influence of Henry Ford and his successors.) I’m sure the researchers are right about consumerism in modern society being a problem. It is though quite hard to see what practically can be done about this in a free society. The suggestion, hinted at, that society should abandon economic growth, strikes me as completely unrealistic. And if they are arguing to abandon the free society, they will have an uphill struggle.

Regarding population, as they themselves semi-concede later in the piece, the solution to population growth is education and social emancipation of women - and access to contraception of course. This is improving all the time anyway. The UN forecast is that a maximum population will be reached by 2050 or so on current trends. In fact we have population decline in many developed countries, to the point that leaders are worrying about how to increase the birth rate. The researchers, at least as reported in the newspaper article, do not seem to engage with these factors.

So, while they make some useful observations, I find the tone of this smells rather of politics, which is a pity as it will turn people off. But maybe that is just the way the Grauniad has reported it: they have a considerable stable of axe-gringing, yoghourt-weaving journalists after all.
 

Quintessence

Consults with Trees
Staff member
Premium Member
Yup.

Not really news to anyone working in the relevant fields. The core problem has always been too many humans using too much stuff using too much energy. Climate change is just symptomatic of the underlying problem and none of the "green energy" transitions - as important as they are, don't get me wrong - really address the core problem. I wouldn't personally frame it as a "behavioral crisis" but that's not an inaccurate way of putting it either.

Humans need to stop doing what they're doing, period. Ecological overshoot happens because of how an organism interacts with its environment (aka, how it behaves). Stop breeding so much. Stop consuming so much. Stop using so much energy. But norms of various culture push most humans to do precisely the opposite of these things in the name of "progress" while leveraging science and technologies that enable formerly impossible levels of abuse. There's a reason why I'm something of a neoluddite.
 

Pete in Panama

Well-Known Member
At the peril of millions or billions of human lives over the next century,...
--not to mention plunging the earth into the sun? We were talking about the climate hysteria but if you'd prefer we could address existing observable scientific realities first.
  • Fact: "millions or billions of human lives" have not been lost and right now the earth's human population is increasing.
  • Fact: while there are many very good people saying that current temperatures are rising, there is no consensus on what is heating, how many degrees C it is now and what the previous 10-year temperatures have been for the past 50 thousand years.
How about you and agree that this issue is controversial and leave it at that?
 

ADigitalArtist

Veteran Member
Staff member
Premium Member
Yup.

Not really news to anyone working in the relevant fields. The core problem has always been too many humans using too much stuff using too much energy. Climate change is just symptomatic of the underlying problem and none of the "green energy" transitions - as important as they are, don't get me wrong - really address the core problem. I wouldn't personally frame it as a "behavioral crisis" but that's not an inaccurate way of putting it either.

Humans need to stop doing what they're doing, period. Ecological overshoot happens because of how an organism interacts with its environment (aka, how it behaves). Stop breeding so much. Stop consuming so much. Stop using so much energy. But norms of various culture push most humans to do precisely the opposite of these things in the name of "progress" while leveraging science and technologies that enable formerly impossible levels of abuse. There's a reason why I'm something of a neoluddite.
The irony is that Luddites loved and and used technology, and were very adept machine workers of the textile industry. What they were trying to prevent was corner cutting business owners from docking wages from machine operators as a sort of worker displacement philosophy. Basically machine operators still deserve livable wage. When they weren't getting it, they destroyed said business owners machinery in protest.

There might be a metaphor about how technology isn't the issue, it's the way its applied at the long term expense of humans for short term gain. But to be honest, any single message about climate change is going to fall short of the complexity of the problem.

And I think that's really the value of article like these. Highlighting that infrastructure is so dependent on ecological waste that disassociating is impossible for most people. Changes cannot just be on a consumer level or nothing will happen.
 

Pete in Panama

Well-Known Member
With those of us in science, the basic reality of global warming is no longer in question.
That's nice, but my question was...
...How about you and agree that this issue is controversial and leave it at that?
--and you appear to be saying (w/o specifically stating so here) that you don't see this issue as being "controversial". Please be clear. Do you agree that the issue is controversial or is your belief that your truth is clear to all and you know for a fact that anyone who disagrees is deceitful or mistaken?
 

Heyo

Veteran Member
That's nice, but my question was...

--and you appear to be saying (w/o specifically stating so here) that you don't see this issue as being "controversial". Please be clear. Do you agree that the issue is controversial or is your belief that your truth is clear to all and you know for a fact that anyone who disagrees is deceitful or mistaken?
The issue is politically controversial, there is no controversy among scientists in the field.
I.e. those who deny or downplay climate change are uninformed (mistaken as you put it), or have an agenda that doesn't fit well with climate change (deceitful).
 

Pete in Panama

Well-Known Member
The issue is politically controversial, there is no controversy among scientists in the field....
That is a partisan political statement.

Let's understand what a "scientist" is. If someone has a PhD in climatology and works in a relevant area, then we should call that person a scientist. There are many such scientists who have many differing points of view on the climate crisis. That makes the issue controversial in the scientific arena.
 

Heyo

Veteran Member
That is a partisan political statement.

Let's understand what a "scientist" is. If someone has a PhD in climatology and works in a relevant area, then we should call that person a scientist. There are many such scientists who have many differing points of view on the climate crisis. That makes the issue controversial in the scientific arena.

@metis said:
With those of us in science, the basic reality of global warming is no longer in question.

So, while there are still questions about the details, after all, it is a relatively young field, the scientists agree about the primary reason (CO2 emissions), the change in global temperature (1.5° C more than at the start of the industrial revolution, now), many of the effects (ocean acidification, water level rise, loss of ice shelves and glaciers, migration of pests, more extreme weather events) and the danger of "tipping points" (which will cause positive feedback loops which can't be mitigated by stopping to burn fossil fuels any more).
And the scientists agree that what the politicians are willing to do is by far not enough.
 

sayak83

Veteran Member
Staff member
Premium Member
That is a partisan political statement.

Let's understand what a "scientist" is. If someone has a PhD in climatology and works in a relevant area, then we should call that person a scientist. There are many such scientists who have many differing points of view on the climate crisis. That makes the issue controversial in the scientific arena.
There is zero controversy among climate scientists on the urgency or reality of anthropogenic global warming. The handful (less than 10 by my count) are either deluded blowhards who could not move on as the science moved (like the case of continental drift theory) or in the payroll of oil companies. Nobody (the other 200,000 + climate scientists) takes these people seriously.
Paper Link
Out of a total of 88,000 papers on climate published since 2012, only 30 could be found that were partially sceptical of some aspect of climate change, showing the current consensus to be 99.96%.
Any idea of there being a controversy in the scientific circles is just fake news pumped by certain media streams for their own, not so hidden, gains.
 

wellwisher

Well-Known Member
Their take is correct that a climate crisis does exist and it's caused by people being manipulated. Where I differ is that the "overshoot" they mention is the over reaction to an unproven geophysical danger and this mindless hysteria is what's feeding the elites.

The good news is that this appears to be mostly noise from a few. Most folks live their lives and ignore the climate silliness.
This effect appears to be what happens after an airliner crash. The media and some politicians will fixate, on that one crash, for so long, that many people will start to believe there is a trend of crashes, ahead for all airliners. This has ,on many occasions, caused the panicked herd to contact their Representatives, to make new laws and spend more money to address the issue, to appease the panic of the herd, that they helped to create.

It is never sold as an isolated event, since you cannot sell soap that way. Who will stayed tuned if you don't to extrapolate today to tomorrow and the day after. Climate change is similar, since natural climate is about change regardless of source. It has changed for a billion years. This is not new to today, like any new airliner crashes being exploited.

What makes the claim of manmade climate change, unscientific, is that, even if true for the sake of argument, this is the very first occurance of manmade climate change, on the earth. The caveman never did it. Rome did not do it. Newton and early science did not do it. This airliner crash of man made climate change is traced back to 1880, when weather and climate science records began in earnest. However, it was not spotted until later 20th century and stress after Gore needed a new way to make money; carbon credits.

Nowhere in science is one experiment, that is not even done, allowed to define, prove and dogmatize a theory. This is politically possible, but it violates the spirit of the philosophy of science. All theories need to have more than one occurrence or experiment for confirmation. If the 1/2 an experiment, was enough, that would make it too easy to fudge theory. These more than one confirmation criteria do not apply to political science, where any single accusation is enough, even if unfounded.

On the other hand, if we claim this change in climate is due to the natural changes of the earth, that theory has many data cycles. We are still in the warm up from the last ice age, where, without man, all the glaciers as far south as NYC, melted back to the Arctic Circle before civilization. That is one of dozens of full cycle earth experiments, we can offer for the natural climate theory, that the 1/2 experiment cannot offer for man made. The 1/2 experiment stopped predicting no Arctic ice, since no theory is good with a 1/2 experimental cycle and no completion. We would need to do this at least before people would have the confidence to make the melted Arctic Claim, with their own money on the barrel. They will not bet their own since the theory is not sure thing.

Say a pharmaceutical manufacturer runs one test, for a new drug, in half the normal time. To them it looks fine, should we run with it and get it to market? Or should they be expected to complete the first test, of their new drug theory, and run even more tests before we sign off? Should all of science and industry now be able to now use the water down standard of climate change; 1/2 test is plenty. Or is this water down standard only allowed for some based, on political science and the best airliner crash scare tactics?

Again I cannot judge man made or natural climate change, either way. However, but I can point to philosophy of sconce and how theory is more reliable, if two or more sets of full experiments are run, instead of a 1/2 test of a new concept, or less.
 

Heyo

Veteran Member
This effect appears to be what happens after an airliner crash. The media and some politicians will fixate, on that one crash, for so long, that many people will start to believe there is a trend of crashes, ahead for all airliners. This has ,on many occasions, caused the panicked herd to contact their Representatives, to make new laws and spend more money to address the issue, to appease the panic of the herd, that they helped to create.

It is never sold as an isolated event, since you cannot sell soap that way. Who will stayed tuned if you don't to extrapolate today to tomorrow and the day after. Climate change is similar, since natural climate is about change regardless of source. It has changed for a billion years. This is not new to today, like any new airliner crashes being exploited.

What makes the claim of manmade climate change, unscientific, is that, even if true for the sake of argument, this is the very first occurance of manmade climate change, on the earth. The caveman never did it. Rome did not do it. Newton and early science did not do it. This airliner crash of man made climate change is traced back to 1880, when weather and climate science records began in earnest. However, it was not spotted until later 20th century and stress after Gore needed a new way to make money; carbon credits.

Nowhere in science is one experiment, that is not even done, allowed to define, prove and dogmatize a theory. This is politically possible, but it violates the spirit of the philosophy of science. All theories need to have more than one occurrence or experiment for confirmation. If the 1/2 an experiment, was enough, that would make it too easy to fudge theory. These more than one confirmation criteria do not apply to political science, where any single accusation is enough, even if unfounded.

On the other hand, if we claim this change in climate is due to the natural changes of the earth, that theory has many data cycles. We are still in the warm up from the last ice age, where, without man, all the glaciers as far south as NYC, melted back to the Arctic Circle before civilization. That is one of dozens of full cycle earth experiments, we can offer for the natural climate theory, that the 1/2 experiment cannot offer for man made. The 1/2 experiment stopped predicting no Arctic ice, since no theory is good with a 1/2 experimental cycle and no completion. We would need to do this at least before people would have the confidence to make the melted Arctic Claim, with their own money on the barrel. They will not bet their own since the theory is not sure thing.

Say a pharmaceutical manufacturer runs one test, for a new drug, in half the normal time. To them it looks fine, should we run with it and get it to market? Or should they be expected to complete the first test, of their new drug theory, and run even more tests before we sign off? Should all of science and industry now be able to now use the water down standard of climate change; 1/2 test is plenty. Or is this water down standard only allowed for some based, on political science and the best airliner crash scare tactics?

Again I cannot judge man made or natural climate change, either way. However, but I can point to philosophy of sconce and how theory is more reliable, if two or more sets of full experiments are run, instead of a 1/2 test of a new concept, or less.
Where do you get your weird ideas from? Please cite your sources.
Or don't, then we know that it was all rectally derived.
 

Sargonski

Well-Known Member
That is a partisan political statement.

Let's understand what a "scientist" is. If someone has a PhD in climatology and works in a relevant area, then we should call that person a scientist. There are many such scientists who have many differing points of view on the climate crisis. That makes the issue controversial in the scientific arena.
There is zero controversy among climate scientists on the urgency or reality of anthropogenic global warming. The handful (less than 10 by my count) are either deluded blowhards who could not move on as the science moved (like the case of continental drift theory) or in the payroll of oil companies. Nobody (the other 200,000 + climate scientists) takes these people seriously.
Paper Link
Out of a total of 88,000 papers on climate published since 2012, only 30 could be found that were partially sceptical of some aspect of climate change, showing the current consensus to be 99.96%.
Any idea of there being a controversy in the scientific circles is just fake news pumped by certain media streams for their own, not so hidden, gains.
Appeal to popularity fallacy aside .. while the overwhelming majority of us Science types agree that increased CO2 due to man is contributing to warming, the overall impact and effect is hotly debated.

What is not debated - least not in serious circles - is that current "Not in my back Yard. Dump it in the Ocean" Enviro policy has not only increased CO2 emissions from 22 Billion tons/year to 36 Billion tons/year over the last 25 years .. but, led to huge increases in Ocean Pollution.

and what is not debated .. is that the impacts of man to the Ocean .. are signaling imminent catastrophic impact .. which will happen long before significant parts of Florida start disappearing due to Ocean levels rising.

So then do we find Ocean Pollution ... the fastest running horse in this two horse race to the abyss .. not plastered on the front page every second day .. but on page 85 in the bottom corner of the Sunday Times .. and of course in Publications like "Scientific American" but only nerds like me read that stuff .. not some secret .. or debated reality in serious circles .. and please do try .. would love to have the "which horse running faster" debate .. I beg it .. such is the slam dunk crucifixion of such position. .. which is why no one with any scientific accumen bothers to try .. all just nodding head in agreement at those big round lunch tables at conferences with names like "Bioremediation" .. attended that one in Baltimore some 2 decades back .. SME at your service should you be interested in degrading hydrocarbon contamination in soil and groundwater using innovative remediation technologies.

and on that note .. lets talk Persistant Organic Pollutants (POP) in the Ocean .. starting with mercury levels in Narn whales up north being so high -experts say is near neurological impairment .. or that breast milk of the Innuit women up north is so contaminated with various POP's that would not be allowed no store shelf ... or that nasty Sargassum epidemic in the Carribean .. was 5000 miles long last year .. wonder what that overflowing toilet has in store for us next year. . not in 100 years .. or even 10.

That is what transporting our pollution problems to other nations has got us .. hope you love that T-Shirt from China .. that is what our brilliant plan of offshorring our economy to China over last 40 years has brought us ..

as ZERO .. disagrees with the two primary factors of the CO2 increase mentioned above are 1) Population Growth and 2) Industrialization of non industrialized populations.
 

exchemist

Veteran Member
That's nice, but my question was...

--and you appear to be saying (w/o specifically stating so here) that you don't see this issue as being "controversial". Please be clear. Do you agree that the issue is controversial or is your belief that your truth is clear to all and you know for a fact that anyone who disagrees is deceitful or mistaken?
As far as the science goes, the controversy about the basic process and its consequences is over. Only a few eccentric and contrarian scientists still dispute that. There is of course dispute in some of the details but nothing that challenges the basic idea.

There is also little political controversy now in most countries. Governments and industry, including the fossil fuel industry, accept it.

The only ones that don't are ignorant people and those disreputable politicians who want to exploit the ignorant to mislead them for their own ends.
 

Pete in Panama

Well-Known Member
... the scientists agree about the primary reason (CO2 emissions)...
So you're ignoring the scientists who don't agree? Like, I'd say we got a consensus of virtually all scientists that the melting point of lead is 327.5C. I've never heard of any dispute about that. W/ climate I've seen many takes from many people, including on the role of CO2.

However CO2 is not my main focus because I understand that the main thesis of the AGW people is that the earth is 1.5C hotter now than it was in the 1800's and that this increase is man made and extremely unusual. We don't need to agree about CO2 to see if that's supported by the evidence.
 
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