Indian Elections, world's largest democracy

[Aupmanyav]

The other question is with no offspring there is no personal corruption. Who would Mr Modi leave it to?
That will all change when BJP eventually replaces him with someone. Who has kids.

BJP (and the parent organization, the much maligned RSS) has many members who have dedicated their life for the nation. Normally these people start as pracharak (equate them with evangelists). Modi, Lal Krishna Advani, the former Haryana Chief Minister, Manohar Lal Khattar, were all 'pracharaks'. It does not matter if they are now married or unmarried. Then we have Yogi Adityanath (50), the Chief Minister of India's most populous state, Uttar Pradesh. Immensely popular, unmarried and Chief of the Gorakhnath seminary.

It will really depend on what RSS and BJP parliamentarians decide. At the moment Amit Shah (60) seems to be the natural choice, though he is married and currently his son is the Chief of the Board of Control of Cricket in India (BCCI). Perhaps Yogi's time will come later. Hopefully Modi will be around when the next Prime Minister of India is chosen. He may resign before the completion of his tenure (He has said that people should not stay in politics after they are 75, and he will be 75 on 17th September next year). People like Modi or Yogi have no hunger for office or money. They are there because the have to complete the task which they have in mind. Of course, he will choose his time to retire, no compulsion on him.

Amit Shah, Yogi Adityanath

Modi at Vivekananda Rock Memorial for his meditation. He will subsist on fruit juice for two days.

 

[Aupmanyav]

Mr Modi will win...only question by how much?

Yes, this is an important question. Don't take Indian elections for granted. It can spring surprises. That is how the former BJP Prime Minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayi lost the election 20 years ago. That is why Modi and his team as well as the opposition were working so hard. If BJP and its coalition partners can manage a two-third majority (362 out of 543 seats in the parliament), then they can make changes in the Constitution. Of course, they cannot abandon democracy, The Supreme Court will not allow that. Less than two-third majority will make some changes difficult. The most important change that they want to bring in is a Uniform Civil Code (UCC). That will do away with personal laws of religions (no Shariah laws for Muslims).

 

[Aupmanyav]

1. Last day of the Indian elections.
The ordeal will be over today. Yes, it has been an ordeal in most of India. The summer has been hotter than even by Indian standards. It has broken centuries old records. The reports are that some 10 election personnel have died because of heat. The election personnel are government employees or employees of the Public sector banks. We will get the exit polls today after 6 pm from various news channels, it is great fun, although predictions go totally wrong in many cases.

2. Modi's meditation is an election gimmick and a way to be in news all the time. But what else could he do? He could not hold public meetings in the last two days. That is not allowed in the rules. If his meditation influences some of today's voters in favor of BJP, well and good. Modi is a practical person. Otherwise also, he needed rest after his one and a half month long election blitzkrieg.

 

[Aupmanyav]

7th and the last phase over. Cost (reportedly) 14 billion USD. 58.3% voting in the 7th phase. Exit polls say Modi is a clear winner. 63% people want him to be the Prime Minister. BJP will win more seats than in 2019, and the coalition total may be around 350 out of 543 seats in the parliament. Some successful independent candidates or some small parties may want to go with Modi's party because of its success (Money talks). The main question is whether Congress will be able to garner 55 seats to claim the status of the main opposition party (10% of the total seats in the parliament. Last time they failed)? Official results on June 4.

What do polsters say about 2024 elections - Google Search

 

[Stevicus]

7th and the last phase over. 58.3% voting in the 7th phase. Exit polls say Modi is a clear winner. 63% people want him to be the Prime Minister. BJP will win more seats than in 2019, and the coalition total may be around 350 out of 543 seats in the parliament. Some successful independent candidates or some small parties may want to go with Modi's party because of its success (Money talks). The main question is whether Congress will be able to garner 55 seats to claim the status of the main opposition party (10% of the total seats in the parliament. Last time they failed)? Official results on June 4.
(Note: NDTV is anti-Modi/BJP)

NDTV Poll of Polls (Live)

Wow, that's a long election process. In some ways, that might seem better than ours. On the other hand, could those who vote later in the process be influenced by the earlier votes in other regions?

 

[Aupmanyav]

Pakistani reaction to Modi's meditation (in last 24 hours):

 

[Aupmanyav]

Wow, that's a long election process. In some ways, that might seem better than ours. On the other hand, could those who vote later in the process be influenced by the earlier votes in other regions?

NO. Election results for all 543 parliamentary seats will be counted on June 4. Prior to that no one knows who has won or who has lost.
Any guesstimate of who is wining for loosing is strictly prohibited till the last vote is cast any where in India. That is why exit polls start at 5 pm on the last voting day when the voting is over or entry of people in voting area is stopped (those inside can still vote), i.e., for 2024 elections, today now.

We have very settled voting rules which we have been following for many decades - India is a mature democracy.

 

[Aupmanyav]

Congress President and the Convenor of INDIA block, still thinks that their combine (INDIA) will get majority in Parliament (and make Rahul Gandhi the Prime Minister of India).
So what, if the polsters and betting syndicates are saying differently?
'INDIA bloc will get over 295 seats in Lok Sabha Elections 2024': Kharge after alliance meeting

 

[Aupmanyav]

IMHO, we have two problems now.
1. An unnecessary VVPAT (Voter Verifiable Paper Audit Trail). An additional machine and 5% checking from hundreds of millions of votes.
2. How to stop people with criminal background from contesting?
The current rule is that the person may have a 100 cases against him/her, even of heinous kind, but if he/she has not been sentenced for more than 2 years, the person can contest election. Conviction in India takes a long time, sometimes even 50 years, with innumerable appeals allowed.
We will need Constitutional amendments to solve these problems. That requires a 2/3 majority in Lower House of the Parliament (out of 543) and a simple majority in Upper House (out of 245).

 

[Aupmanyav]

Laddoos being prepared in anticipation of a BJP win (the image is from Bihar. Nitish Kumar, Chief Minister of Bihar and part of the BJP combine, is the other person whose photograph these people are showing):

D-day tomorrow. Counting starts at 8 am. All Indian news channels are going to live telecast the trends. First trends likely to come around 9 am. They will tell who is winning at that moment and with how many votes. I will post the site-addresses tomorrow.

 

[Aupmanyav]

This is the official site of Election Commission of India:

https://results.eci.gov.in/PcResultGenJune2024/index.htm

NDTV 24x7 Live TV: Watch Live News | News at Noon – NDTV.com

Watch Live English News Channel NDTV 24X7, Live News on NDTV, News at Noon. We are broadcasting your favorite news channel all over the world for free, covering news, movies, music, sports, lifestyle and more on NDTV.com

www.ndtv.com

(Note: NDTV is anti-Modi. So, it will always show BJP leading in less number of constituencies)

Lok Sabha Election Results 2024 Highlights: 'Will work towards building a Viksit Bharat,' says PM Modi after NDA elects him leader - The Times of India

Lok Sabha Election Results 2024 Highlights: A significant gathering of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance took place at the residence of Prime

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

(Note: Make the video on the page full screen)

Elections 2024: Read Elections 2024 News and Lok Sabha Election Updates

Elections 2024: Check latest Lok Sabha Election News and updates with photos and videos. Stay connected with The Hindustan Times for Lok Sabha Election Live Coverage.

www.hindustantimes.com

(Note: Site anti-Modi)

I suppose I have given enough links (for as well as against). Need I give more?

 

[Aupmanyav]

BJP's 400 out of 543 dream may not come true. Opposition combine is doing better than I expected.
However, Modi will get his third term. BJP has already crossed the majority in the parliament (272).
Of course, these are trends only and not the final results.

 

[sayak83]

BJP's 400 out of 543 dream may not come true. Opposition combine is doing better than I expected.
However, Modi will get his third term. BJP has already crossed the majority in the parliament (262).
Of course, these are trends only and not the final results.

I expected this. NDA would have lost this election hands down if anyone in the opposition were even moderately competent. NDA will primarily win because of the disastrous state leaderships in West Bengal, Delhi and Andhra Pradesh from the opposition parties.

 

[sayak83]

BJP's 400 out of 543 dream may not come true. Opposition combine is doing better than I expected.
However, Modi will get his third term. BJP has already crossed the majority in the parliament (262).
Of course, these are trends only and not the final results.

I shoukd have shorted the markets yesterday

 

[sayak83]

BJP's 400 out of 543 dream may not come true. Opposition combine is doing better than I expected.
However, Modi will get his third term. BJP has already crossed the majority in the parliament (262).
Of course, these are trends only and not the final results.

i think it will be 300-200 eventually, which is a fair result given the comparative track record of the two alliances.

 

[Aupmanyav]

Well, a disastrous result for BJP. That is why I had written that Indian elections can spring surprises. BJP does not even have a majority of its own and will have to depend on TDP (Telugu Desam Party - Andhra Pradesh) and JDU (Janata Dal United - Bihar. Let us see if JDU can be merged with BJP). That way, he gets some 14 more parliamentarians (now is the time for these post-election adjustments . Politics after all is a game of event management).
Most probably Modi will become the Prime Minister, but he would not have his former clout (which comes with an absolute majority). Any change in Constitution ruled out.
However, BJP gets one more state to rule - Odisha.
BJP could retain Navin Patnaik as Chief Minister as Modi respects him. Modi and Patnaik have no major policy differences, and Patnaik's party (BJD - Biju Janata Dal) has always supported BJP. At one time they were thinking of fighting the election together, but then, Patnaik back-tracked.
I will post the current political map of India as soon as it is available.

 

[sayak83]

Well, a disastrous result for BJP. That is why I had written that Indian elections can spring surprises. BJP does not even have a majority of its own and will have to depend on TDP (Telugu Desam Party - Andhra Pradesh) and JDU (Janata Dal United - Bihar. Let us see if JDU can be merged with BJP). That way, he gets some 14 more parliamentarians (now is the time for these post-election adjustments . Politics after all is a game of event management).
Most probably Modi will become the Prime Minister, but he would not have his former clout (which comes with an absolute majority). Any change in Constitution ruled out.
However, BJP gets one more state to rule - Odisha.
BJP could retain Navin Patnaik as Chief Minister as Modi respects him. Modi and Patnaik have no major policy differences, and Patnaik's party (BJD - Biju Janata Dal) has always supported BJP. At one time they were thinking of fighting the election together, but then, Patnaik back-tracked. That way he gets 4 more parliamentarians.
I will post the current political map of India as soon as it is available.

The exit poll people should be out of the job.

 

[Aupmanyav]

I thought a statesman like Modi would not rake up the Muslim issue so blatantly during the last fortnight of the campaign. It does not impress Indian electorate. Allah knows who advised it. He lost his popularity in Pakistan too. From a Great Person, he became just an Ordinary Person (though he remains a great person for me).
There will be no misfortune for India greater than a monkey from India combine to becoming the Prime Minister of India.

 

[sayak83]

I thought a statesman like Modi would not rake up the Muslim issue so blatantly during the last fortnight of the campaign. It does not impress Indian electorate. Allah knows who advised it. He lost his popularity in Pakistan too. From a Great Person, he became just an Ordinary Person (though he remains a great person for me).
There will be no misfortune for India greater than a person from India combine to becoming the Prime Minister of India.

BJP will lead the government...but a very chastised one I hope. Of course Mr. Naidu can switch if given the PM seat by Congress. Let's see

 

[Aupmanyav]

I do not think he will leave his fiefdom for an unstable Prime Ministership, which could be challenged in a year's time.
He will like to consolidate his position in Andhra and make Amaravati its capital, a move which was scuttled by Jagmohan Reddy..
He had bought a lot of land in that region in anticipation of a rise in land prices.