Is Israel facing no choice but to accept UN resolution

[greatcalgarian]

BBC has an analysis equating recent Israel invasion of Lebanon to be similar to US invasion of Iraq, both started with carpet bombing followed by ground troup. As in the case of Iraq, US appeared to have won in the beginning, but is now being dragged into the deep dark hole of war of attrition with the Iraqi nationalistic fighter aided by their muslim brothers.
In the same way, Israel invasion of Lebanon was beginning to show that modern military weapon superiority does not necessarily mean that an outright victory can be achieved easily.
Hence the Israel has already, before the full scale land invasion of south Lebanon, a plan B, in place, and UN is her key winning pawn piece.
With US blocking all way of getting an early ceasefire, the Israeli carried out all the necessary bombing and destruction of the Hezbollah communciation and support route. Then in go the ground troup, hoping to rescue the kidnapped soldiers as well as to inflict heavy casualty onto the Hesbellah fighters. When both objectives cannot be achieved, or when the loss of IDF became too high, Israel will then gracefully accept the ceasefire broker by the UN.
So who is the winner in this recent Israel-Hezbellah conflict?

GWB!! He has now linked the London airplane liquid bomb plot to Iraq to Hezbellah etc, and hence allow whatever plan he has in continueing his war against terror.

 

[greatcalgarian]

Writing in late July - admittedly early on in the conflict - he noted that Israel's performance did not "seem particularly impressive either in terms of strategy or execution".
The doyen of Israeli military commentators, veteran Haaretz journalist Zeev Schiff, concluded at the end of the first two weeks of the fighting that Israel was far from a decisive victory and that its main objectives had not been achieved.
There were, he said, "major lessons to be learned".
This week's despatch of the deputy Chief of Staff of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) - Maj Gen Moshe Kaplinski - to assume command of operations on the northern front is the clearest signal yet that things have not gone according to plan.
And Israeli analysts hint that there are wider problems in what you might call the command dynamics.
Military 'Americanisation'
Much has been made of the fact that Israel's current Chief-of-Staff - Lt Gen Dan Halutz - is an air force general.
The IDF's initial response to the seizure of its two soldiers and the killing of their comrades inside Israeli territory by a Hezbollah unit and the ensuing rocket fire was to launch a punishing air campaign.

Training and readiness (of the IDF) have by all accounts suffered

But this approach depends upon far more than the branch of service of the IDF chief. The decision to rely upon air power was the result of a wider set of circumstances one of which could be termed the "Americanisation" of the Israeli military.
I've always been struck when visiting advanced US military exercises at the number of Israeli observers - a manifestation of the very close ties between these two countries armed forces.
Ready for action?
Not having been engaged in high-intensity warfare since the early 1980s, the Israeli military has undergone something of a transformation.
For years it has largely been concerned with low-intensity operations against poorly-armed Palestinian fighters.

Hezbollah rocket attacks on Israel have increased under fire


Full-scale warfare against the formal army of a neighbouring state has become less likely - though there is an undoubted risk that the present conflict in Lebanon, if it continues, could draw Syria into the fray.
The duration of reserve duty has been reduced. Training and readiness have by all accounts suffered.
Israel's long-term military planning, like the Pentagon's, has focused more and more on what technology can do - a trend amplified by Israel's own high-tech society. Indeed Israel is probably closer to the United States in its implementation of the so-called "revolution in military affairs" - the combination of real-time intelligence gathering systems with precision fire-power - than any of Washington's Nato allies.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4780847.stm

 

[greatcalgarian]

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert defended his leadership, saying Hezbollah had been dealt a harsh blow.
But Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is claiming a historic victory.
Wider political recriminations are also taking the place of violence on the ground, with the presidents of the US and Iran blaming each other for fuelling the conflict.
President George W Bush accused Iran of backing armed groups in Lebanon and Iraq "in the hope of stopping democracy from taking hold". Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad blamed Washington for providing Israel with weapons which he said had been used to target women and children in Lebanon.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4793177.stm

Guess there is no winner in this conflict? Let us pray that peace be long and lasting.

 

[almifkhar]

all sides claim victory from the various stories i read earlier. i find it patheic to say the lest.

i just cannot see how anyone can think that they are the winners, when this cease fire wont last. my bet is it will last no longer than 6 months, and some kind of drama will happen in the mean time.

how can it last when hezbollah wont die off, israel can still do fly overs, choke the ports and exiting roads into lebanon and patrol the south, while lebanon is completely destroyed? oppps! that bomb must have fallen off a hinge on the jet? opps! the government got overthrown! where's the rebuilding $$$? opps! i thought that idf was too close to the line?

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

From Haaretz:

Lebanon government compromise would allow Hezbollah to keep hidden weapons in south
Lebanese army could deploy within two days
By Yoav Stern and Amos Harel, Haaretz Correspondents, and News Agencies
​

A compromise agreement now being hammered out between Hezbollah and the Lebanese government would allow the Shi'ite guerillas to keep hidden weapons in south Lebanon, the London-based Al-Hayat newspaper reported on Tuesday.

While Hezbollah would need to keep the weapons it possesses south of the Litani River hidden, an agreement for areas north of the river would be "left to a long term solution," the paper reported.

If the proposed compromise is accepted Tuesday by the Lebanese government, it would violate the terms of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 ending the war in Lebanon. The resolution rules that the Lebanese army and UNIFIL may be the only armed forces in the territory between the Litani River south to the Israeli border.

This compromise is also a violation of the "one weapon" principle that appears in Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora's Seven Points Plan.​

What we have here is not simply an Israeli defeat, but an ignominious defeat that promotes and strengthens terrorism. Sadly and shamefully, it is a defeat at the hands of its own political leadership.

So, once again we'll learn a lesson about appeasement - one which we should have learned in WWII.

 

[Yerda]

Guess there is no winner in this conflict? Let us pray that peace be long and lasting.

Hezbollah didn't fair badly and for that reason I doubt the peace will last. Whether or not Israel will pusue such a disastrous strategy in future is for anyone to guess, but it can't be expected to stand by while terrorists who pray for it's destruction build arms on the border.

 

[jamaesi]

All this talking of winners and losers, especially what almifkhar said in post #4 makes me think of a blog I read earlier...

"Strictly from a humanitarian point of view, it's both grotesque and repulsive to have to listen to Ehud Olmert, Sheikh Nasrallah and [George Bush] all proclaiming victory in their nasty little war—even as the bodies are still literally being pulled out of the rubble. It brings to mind Victor Hugo's description of Napoleon as a rooster crowing on top of dung heap...

This is the kind of simian hooting and chest beating that makes me wish I'd been born into a more respectable species—like the hyenas or the slime eels or the dung beetles."

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

Good post ...

 

[greatcalgarian]

However, could it be just a strategic pause for Israel to regroup to plan for the next move?

 

[kai]

Its doomed to failure the Lebanese government cannot control Hezbollah they will make so many compromises that the ceasefire will be impossible to keep. the lebanese army will not be able to disarm Hezbollah the UN force will be unwilling to disarm Hezbollah, thats if they get there in the first place, so i am afraid its only a matter of time

 

[angellous_evangellous]

However, could it be just a strategic pause for Israel to regroup to plan for the next move?

That's what I'm thinking, but the refugees are moving back. If Israel wanted to strike, it would be better to do so before the refugees are settled.

 

[jewscout]

However, could it be just a strategic pause for Israel to regroup to plan for the next move?

hmmm funny...that's what i'm asking about Hizbullah and their buddies...

 

[angellous_evangellous]

hmmm funny...that's what i'm asking about Hizbullah and their buddies...

The patience of Israel is just about saintly. If only the enemies would stop whining and fight and then shut up after they are soundly whipped.

 

[Light]

Hizbollah won the war and destroyed for the second time the myth of the undefeated army of Israel. The first one was in May 2000 and the second is now. Imagine Israel which is a powerful country supported by another powerful country called USA, both defeated by a faithful resistance group called Hizbollah. See the miracle? It is Allah the Almighty who is at their side for their pure and faithful cause to protect their land from the wicked plans of the Zionists.

 

[angellous_evangellous]

Hizbollah won the war and destroyed for the second time the myth of the undefeated army of Israel. The first one was in May 2000 and the second is now. Imagine Israel which is a powerful country supported by another powerful country called USA, both defeated by a faithful resistance group called Hizbollah. See the miracle? It is Allah the Almighty who is at their side for their pure and faithful cause to protect their land from the wicked plans of the Zionists.

An unfortunate result of not making one's defeat absolute. The ONLY reason that Hizbullah even has a voice today is it fled north with refugees. Had Hizbullah fought it most certainly would have lost.

 

[kai]

Hizbollah won the war and destroyed for the second time the myth of the undefeated army of Israel. The first one was in May 2000 and the second is now. Imagine Israel which is a powerful country supported by another powerful country called USA, both defeated by a faithful resistance group called Hizbollah. See the miracle? It is Allah the Almighty who is at their side for their pure and faithful cause to protect their land from the wicked plans of the Zionists.

for heavens sake you call that winning you are deluded my friend Hezbollah is supposed to dissarm if not the full wrath of Israel will be unleashed on poor Lebenon

 

[Light]

for heavens sake you call that winning you are deluded my friend Hezbollah is supposed to dissarm

We will see, the coming days will show us. Believe me the only case when Hizbollah will dissarm is when the Shebaa farms are back to Lebanon and when the Lebanese captives are back home.

 

[Booko]

********** MOD POST *********
​

Please keep the following rule in mind as this thread progresses. Pay especially close attention to the parts in red.

4.) While debating and discussion is fine, we will not tolerate rudeness, insulting posts, personal attacks or inflammatory posts. We will allow faith to be debated and discussed by a member only when there is no hostile, rude, or insulting opinion of another's faith. The same applies to international conflicts; hostile, rude or insulting opinions of one of the sides to an international conflict will not be allowed. These restrictions to an open debate or discussion also apply to material linked and/or quoted from another site. Our decision is final in these matters.

 

[egroen]

Light, I am curious... where do you live? What nation?

-Erin

 

[Booko]

********* MOD POST *********

This thread is closed pending moderator review.