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Is providing data to creationists a waste of time?

It Aint Necessarily So

Veteran Member
Premium Member
IANS: "And here's your chance to prove the central thesis of the thread wrong. You've just been given evidence. Prove that it wasn't an useless gesture of potential benefit only to non-creationists reading along. Show them that you're an evidence based thinker, and that evidence can actually modify your position or argument. What are your feelings now about a comment like, "Evolution is only a theory"?"

Evolution is only a theory.

That's pretty much what I expected.

Yes, that's something that we call special pleading. You require others to provide evidence and then you exempt yourself from the requirement. Lovely.

You misunderstood what you read. I don't require you or any other theist to produce evidence. Nor do I feel any need to provide any to you.



"
No, you don't get it. So here's a simple breakdown. You claim that the burden of proof rests on the one making a claim. Yet, the statement "that the burden of proof rests on the one making a claim" is a claim for which you bear the burden of proof. Yet you have no proof for it. So why shouldn't I conclude that it's false and self-refuting?

Did you read what I wrote? It wasn't what you just claimed.

IANS wrote: "he's confused about burden of proof (it obviously rests only with the person that wants to be believed)"

How did you morph that into "the burden of proof rests on the one making a claim"? I make many claims that I have no interest in trying to prove to faith based thinkers. It would pointless to try. I don't expect you to believe me, and make no effort to convince you as the topic of this thread suggests.

When I post my reasoning or argument, it is for people that care about such things.
 
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It Aint Necessarily So

Veteran Member
Premium Member
All right. Why don't you explain what the argument is. If you could use symbols such as the ones at Symbolic Logic { Philosophy Index } that would be great.

Why bother?


No, you didn't give any reason. Yes, you spouted some ideas about how atheists don't need evidence (special pleading) but every argument you made he already anticipated and argued against. So, you basically ignored his argument entirely.

What?

We have already established that evidence is irrelevant. What's your point?

No. Evidence is relevant. Faith is irrelevant.

What you seem to be arguing is that everything that is useful is also true.

Are you alright? Where do you get this stuff from?

First of all, there is a big difference between evidence-based thinkers and reason-based thinkers. Evidence is unreasonable. It doesn't work. This has already been pointed out.

We don't have enough in common to hold a conversation.

Yes, Darwinism is still a theory and arguably not a very scientific one.
.

Now you're moving the goalpost from "only a theory" to "a theory." Nobody has disagreed that it is a theory.
 

Zosimus

Active Member
No. You're assuming that you merely saying "logical fallacy" constitutes proof of one, and then expecting the rest of us to follow along.
What wonderful hypocrisy on your part! Here you complain that creationists require you to post evidence when it is freely available at the touch of the Google button. Yet you require me to provide "proof of one" when anyone with Google can see that what I am saying is 100% correct.

Let's start by looking at Intro to Logic: Affirming the Consequent and note that I have purposely picked an atheist website so that you cannot impugn its motives. Here we go:

Time for another fallacy! Today we discuss affirming the consequent. It looks like this:

  1. If P then Q.
  2. Q.
  3. Therefore, P.
For example:
  1. If Bill Gates owns Fort Knox, then he is rich.
  2. Bill Gates is rich.
  3. Therefore, he owns Fort Knox.
Are you with us so far? Perhaps you cannot follow the symbols. P represents "Bill Gates owns Fort Knox" and Q represents "Bill Gates is rich."

Let's try it again with this theoretical argument:

I know that homeopathic remedies work because the doctor came to my house and gave one to my daughter. The next morning she felt a lot better.

Let P = Homeopathic remedies work.
Let Q = My daughter feels better.

If P then Q or P predicts Q or P implies Q or just P=>Q
Q
Therefore, P.

This is, of course, no proof that homeopathic remedies work. Perhaps the daughter would have felt better on her own without the remedy. Perhaps the real reason she feels better is because she drank lots of liquid and got some rest. Maybe unbeknownst to us her father was secretly praying to the Flying Spaghetti Monster and that's the real reason she feels better. In the end, nothing has been proved, but logical fallacies have been committed.

Now let's go to Sayek's gramatically challenged post:

Thus the theory of evolution predicts a pattern, a pattern that has no reason to exist otherwise. Here is the pattern

1) The ancient earth will have no land animals but only fish in the sea. This is indeed what we see before 400 million years.
2) There will eventually be groups of fish that will have some similarities with land animals. This is observed in the fossil record with lungfish (fish with lungs) and other lobe-finned fish (fish with four fleshy limb like fin lobes) cropping up from 400 million years. No land animals are found yet.

Let P = the theory of evolution
Let Q = a pattern

P => Q
Sentence 1) says that the pattern has been observed. So that's Q
His conclusion: P

This is a textbook example of the affirming the consequent logical fallacy.

His only deviation is the claim (unsupported) that this pattern has no reason to exist otherwise. This is, however, highly disputable. One possible objection is confirmation bias. Creationists would be quick to point out that the Bible says God made fish first. Even if no one were able to think of an alternate explanation, that doesn't mean that an alternate explanation couldn't be discovered tomorrow.

In short, this post, if anything, is proof that Sayek is logic challenged.

Then I have to wonder if all jury verdicts on crimes that had no eye witnesses are also fallacious.
Many of them are. Surely you know this, and I also wonder why you are going off on a tangent.

Care to try that again without the triple negative?
While I am not insensitive to your lack of reading comprehension, the text in question was not a triple negative.[/URL]
 
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Zosimus

Active Member
Are you alright? Where do you get this stuff from?
Where do I get this stuff from? Well, I get it from Stanford University. Have you ever heard of it?

Now you're moving the goalpost from "only a theory" to "a theory." Nobody has disagreed that it is a theory.
No, what you are arguing is that a scientific theory is a mystic thing that deserves special consideration. You believe that it deserves to be believed and accepted as real. this is called "scientific realism." As Putnam is paraphrased the primary claim is that if scientific theories are not true then their success is nothing short of a miracle. Of course, this argument commits the base rate fallacy, but that's besides the point.

Anyway, as you have basically said that we have no common ground on which to discuss things (and I agree. It is pointless to make logical arguments to someone who rejects logic). Let's just leave it where it is—you cannot refute even one thing that I've said.
 

Polymath257

Think & Care
Staff member
Premium Member
Here's a friendly tip. A closed mouth doesn't catch flies. So if you have nothing to add, maybe you should keep that mouth shut and the flies in the world safe.
Oh, the ironies!

Oh, here we go. You cannot come up with your own wrong things to say so you need to quote an expert on wrongness. Let's start here here: Newton didn't have a theory of gravity. He proposed the law of universal gravitation. A law is not a theory. A theory is not a law. And quotes by Stephen Jay Gould won't convince me otherwise.
And you are wrong. Newton called his theory a law because of the language used at the time. But, and this is important, Newton's law of gravity is wrong. Other ideas that were *thought* to be unbreakable laws have been found to be wrong. Because of that, most scientists today are very reluctant to use the word 'law' with the old connotation of being unbreakable and certain. Instead, we realize that Newton proposed a *theory* about how gravity works. That *theory* passed many observational tests that could have falsified it if it had been drastically wrong. Nonetheless, it was wrong in detail.


But as I've already pointed out, evidence is pointless. Evidentialism is false. Empiricism is a philosophical dead end.
Only because you misunderstand the foundations of it. Suppose you have several possible explanations of a phenomenon. Is there a way to test between them and at least eliminate the false ones? Yes! Go to the real world, collect evidence and discard those 'explanations' that do not make valid predictions of what will be found. The predictions should be done ahead of time.

Well, science has a lot more achievements under its belt than your philosophical stance does.

No, you don't get it. So here's a simple breakdown. You claim that the burden of proof rests on the one making a claim. Yet, the statement "that the burden of proof rests on the one making a claim" is a claim for which you bear the burden of proof. Yet you have no proof for it. So why shouldn't I conclude that it's false and self-refuting?

No, the burden proof rests on the one making the positive existential claim.

Okay, well, I don't believe in atheists. They simply don't exist.
Pa => Ex Px

Oh, well, he got a Ph.D. in philosophy and became a university professor, that's how.
Low bar.

The sad thing is that you actually believe that.
Let me give you a historical example. Aristotle's ideas about gravity were wrong. They made testable predictions and those predictions were not verified by the evidence from observation.
P=>Q
~Q
---------
~P

Newton came along and gave a different proposal concerning how gravity works. This fit the known data and made predictions of what would be seen in the future.
P=>Q
Q seems unlikely
Q
------------------
P seems more likely

In fact, Newton's ideas were accurate enough to make predictions that were accurate to a much higher degree than anyone expected at first. However, eventually, it was found that the observations started to differ from the results of actual observations. Newton's ideas were falsified.

P=>Q
~Q
-------------
~P

Einstein came along and presented still another viewpoint on gravity. So far, this viewpoint has agreed with all the evidence in spite of attempts to prove it wrong.

Now, I am NOT going to claim that Einstein's ideas are correct. What I *am* going to point out is that Newton's ideas didn't disappear even though they have been shown wrong in detail.

Why?

Newton's ideas are still used (by NASA, for example) because they work even though they are known to be wrong in detail. Sometimes you simply don't need that level of detail to do the work.

So, suppose you have two methods to solve a problem, method 1 and method 2. Method 1 is much easier to use and gives a result that agrees with observation to 4 decimal places, but disagrees starting in the 5th decimal place. Method 2 is much harder to use, but gives a result that agrees with observations to at least 9 decimal places and has never been found to be wrong.. In your work, you need a result that is accurate to 3 decimal places. Which method do you use? Answer: method 1. Even though it is known to be wrong in detail.

But Aristotle's ideas are NOT used: they have disappeared. Why? Because they are not even accurate enough for day-to-day work. They are SO inaccurate that they cannot be used with any confidence. Notice that they were never tested and verified in *any* cases.

This is how science tends to progress. New ideas *do* replace the old ones in detail. But, once a viewpoint has been tested in a certain collection of cases, it tends to be used for those cases if it is easier than the better explanations. The old views don't go away *if* they are accurate enough for many situations that people encounter. But those that are not accurate enough for even simple cases *are* discarded.

The reason evolution won't go away is that we *know* that biological species have changed over time. This is like finding out that the Earth goes around the sun. We will never go back to a geocentric viewpoint again. We may still have to modify our ideas of *why* species change and *how* they change. But the basic fact that species change (evolution) has been established.

Sure. You have no critical reasoning skills. That explains it entirely.
My Irony Meter is pinging.
 

Polymath257

Think & Care
Staff member
Premium Member
So although Sayek never states a conclusion, he implies that this logical fallacy demonstrates Darwinism.

It's a textbook example of a logical fallacy. I guess you got sucked in.

You misunderstand the logic of science. Science works on the following principle:

If I have several different proposals of how something works, I use each of them to make a new prediction. Then I test that prediction. I keep doing this until only one proposal is left.

While that last proposal may not be true, it *is* the best we have.

We use evidence to *eliminate* alternatives. Lamarckian evolution, for example. Or that mutation is directed. Or that species are stable.
 

sayak83

Veteran Member
Staff member
Premium Member
I don't have time to waste on your post as you didn't bother to address any of the points I made. I imagine that you didn't understand them. So I'll just address your link to Sayak:


Okay, so if Darwinism=="TRUE" then Biological Similarities will == "TRUE"


Evidence of Biological Similarities.

So although Sayek never states a conclusion, he implies that this logical fallacy demonstrates Darwinism.

It's a textbook example of a logical fallacy. I guess you got sucked in.
What are you talking about?
 

Polymath257

Think & Care
Staff member
Premium Member
So your argument, in a nutshell, is that one logical fallacy proves nothing, but when you put a large number of them together, as Sayak has, they prove evolution?
No. That is not the logic.

You really don't get it, do you? All right. Let's establish the argument simply so that you can follow it.

When you say that theory T makes predictions P, we can write that as:
T => P (T implies P or if T then P).
After that, you go out in the real world and you observe P.
So you think that T has been confirmed.
Now, suppose you have two theories S and T. Suppose S=>~P and T=>P. Now you observe P. Can you conclude anything?

But even worse, you miss the whole logic of scientific discourse. It doesn't attempt to *prove* the general theories. Instead, it attempts to determine the amount of *confidence* those theories should engender in certain domains of discourse.

So, for example, Aristotelian dynamics was proposed by a philosopher and justified via philosophical arguments. But it was not tested by actual observations. How much confidence do we have in its predictions? Answer: very little.

Newtonian physics, on the other hand, was proposed based on observations. It makes predictions that are verified to significant levels of accuracy for things like planets or cars, or buildings. Many tests have been made for the accuracy of the Newtonian results in these domains and others. How much confidence should we place in Newtonian dynamics when it comes to designing a car? Answer: a very great deal.

However, Newtonian dynamics has been shown to not give accurate answers to more than 8 decimal places when the speeds involved are more that a few tens of miles per second. How much confidence should we have if we want 9 decimal places of accuracy in a situation where common speeds are hundreds of miles per second? Answer: very little.

On the other hand, special relativity has been tested for speeds as large as we have been able to produce, even in particle accelerators. The predictions of the theory and the observations match even when the Newtonian predictions are very far off. Now, we want to build a new accelerator. How much confidence do we have in Newtonian dynamics? Almost none. How much in special relativity? Quite a bit.

What verification via observation does is allows us to have confidence in a certain domain because we have tested in that domain and the results have worked to the level of accuracy we were able to establish (or needed).

When we move away from those domains where the theory has been tested, our confidence that the theory will work is decreased.

An example:

When the planet Uranus was found, a lot of observations were made to determine whether its motion agreed with the Newtonian views of gravity. At first they did, but then differences started being observed. The question: was Newton shown to be wrong? It was certainly possible that Newton's 'laws' didn't apply that far away from the sun. But, using those laws, a couple of mathematicians were able to predict the existence of another planet and say where in the sky to look for it. When Neptune was discovered in that location, it increased confidence that Newtonian dynamics worked that far from the sun.

Later, however, it was found that the motion of Mercury showed differences to the Newtonian predictions. So, calculations were made and a prediction of a new planet (given a name-Vulcan) was announced. However, no such planet was ever found. Instead, Einstein came along and gave a different description of gravity. The motions of Mercury agreed with the Einsteinian predictions. So General relativity started gaining confidence as it applied to orbits of planets. By the way, Einstein's ideas agree with Newtons to the accuracy that Newton's were tested. It is the differences between the two theories that show that Einstein was more correct because those differences are demonstrated in observations.

Oh, so now the argument is that because bacteria can develop resistance to some antibiotics that chimpanzees and humans share a common ancestor? Really? Are you sure you didn't miss a premise there somewhere?
Since that is NOT the argument made, it is silly to argue with you here.

I'm not of the mind that data are neither useful nor relevant. I've already demonstrated that to you.
And you would be wrong. Data are useful for eliminating ideas that are wrong and to gain confidence in those that continue to work.
 

It Aint Necessarily So

Veteran Member
Premium Member
No, what you are arguing is that a scientific theory is a mystic thing that deserves special consideration. You believe that it deserves to be believed and accepted as real. this is called "scientific realism." As Putnam is paraphrased the primary claim is that if scientific theories are not true then their success is nothing short of a miracle. Of course, this argument commits the base rate fallacy, but that's besides the point.

Any fallacy in the above must be yours. That wasn't my position.

Look at how assiduously you attack every element of reason. Recently, you cited a reference that was critical of the idea that the belief is justified only to the extent that the evidence supports, and now you don't like the idea that a scientific theory should be accepted if it unifies observation, provides an explanatory mechanism, makes predictions about what can and cannot be found in the world that are never falsified, and is fruitful improving the human condition. To you, that is a "mystic thing." What could be more pragmatic and down to earth than, "If it works, use it"

And of course such an intellectual achievement deserves special consideration. There is no need to use words like "believed," "true," "real," or "proven." If it can be the opposite of all of those and still be useful, then we will use it. The rest is all distraction - semantic games: "You can't prove yadda."

In the meantime, these scientific theories are being effectively put to work to predict and at times control nature, and in so doing, have made our lives longer, healthier, safer, more comfortable, and more interesting.

Yet you go on with specious arguments attempting to denigrate those great achievements.

Sometimes, one must look up from his book and observe what is actually going on out there and ground himself.

"When the philosopher's argument becomes tedious, complicated, and opaque, it is usually a sign that he is attempting to prove as true to the intellect what is plainly false to common sense. - Edward Abbey

Anyway, as you have basically said that we have no common ground on which to discuss things (and I agree. It is pointless to make logical arguments to someone who rejects logic).

No, I reject your arguments, not logic. I reject your mode of thinking. Aren't you the guy that said, "Evolution is, of course, just a theory"? Aren't you the guy who said, "No amount of "supporting" evidence can or will make any difference in your position because there's no such thing as supporting evidence"? Is providing data to creationists a waste of time?

Aren't you the one that said, "evidence is pointless. Evidentialism is false. Empiricism is a philosophical dead end."

Yep, that was you.

Like I said, your posting is a full-fledged assault on both reason and evidence.

Let's just leave it where it is—you cannot refute even one thing that I've said.

I just did.
 
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sayak83

Veteran Member
Staff member
Premium Member
No. That is not the logic.


Now, suppose you have two theories S and T. Suppose S=>~P and T=>P. Now you observe P. Can you conclude anything?

But even worse, you miss the whole logic of scientific discourse. It doesn't attempt to *prove* the general theories. Instead, it attempts to determine the amount of *confidence* those theories should engender in certain domains of discourse.

So, for example, Aristotelian dynamics was proposed by a philosopher and justified via philosophical arguments. But it was not tested by actual observations. How much confidence do we have in its predictions? Answer: very little.

Newtonian physics, on the other hand, was proposed based on observations. It makes predictions that are verified to significant levels of accuracy for things like planets or cars, or buildings. Many tests have been made for the accuracy of the Newtonian results in these domains and others. How much confidence should we place in Newtonian dynamics when it comes to designing a car? Answer: a very great deal.

However, Newtonian dynamics has been shown to not give accurate answers to more than 8 decimal places when the speeds involved are more that a few tens of miles per second. How much confidence should we have if we want 9 decimal places of accuracy in a situation where common speeds are hundreds of miles per second? Answer: very little.

On the other hand, special relativity has been tested for speeds as large as we have been able to produce, even in particle accelerators. The predictions of the theory and the observations match even when the Newtonian predictions are very far off. Now, we want to build a new accelerator. How much confidence do we have in Newtonian dynamics? Almost none. How much in special relativity? Quite a bit.

What verification via observation does is allows us to have confidence in a certain domain because we have tested in that domain and the results have worked to the level of accuracy we were able to establish (or needed).

When we move away from those domains where the theory has been tested, our confidence that the theory will work is decreased.

An example:

When the planet Uranus was found, a lot of observations were made to determine whether its motion agreed with the Newtonian views of gravity. At first they did, but then differences started being observed. The question: was Newton shown to be wrong? It was certainly possible that Newton's 'laws' didn't apply that far away from the sun. But, using those laws, a couple of mathematicians were able to predict the existence of another planet and say where in the sky to look for it. When Neptune was discovered in that location, it increased confidence that Newtonian dynamics worked that far from the sun.

Later, however, it was found that the motion of Mercury showed differences to the Newtonian predictions. So, calculations were made and a prediction of a new planet (given a name-Vulcan) was announced. However, no such planet was ever found. Instead, Einstein came along and gave a different description of gravity. The motions of Mercury agreed with the Einsteinian predictions. So General relativity started gaining confidence as it applied to orbits of planets. By the way, Einstein's ideas agree with Newtons to the accuracy that Newton's were tested. It is the differences between the two theories that show that Einstein was more correct because those differences are demonstrated in observations.


Since that is NOT the argument made, it is silly to argue with you here.


And you would be wrong. Data are useful for eliminating ideas that are wrong and to gain confidence in those that continue to work.
This discussion is going to into the justifications of Bayesian inference and prediction.
Hence putting in some useful links that can be used for the purpose,
Simple description of Bayesian inference
https://brohrer.github.io/how_bayesian_inference_works.html
Less simple,
Bayes' Theorem Illustrated (My Way) - Less Wrong

With all math
https://users.soe.ucsc.edu/~draper/draper-BMIP-dec2005.pdf
 

It Aint Necessarily So

Veteran Member
Premium Member
. Suppose you have several possible explanations of a phenomenon. Is there a way to test between them and at least eliminate the false ones? Yes! Go to the real world, collect evidence and discard those 'explanations' that do not make valid predictions of what will be found. The predictions should be done ahead of time.

[snip]

Newton's ideas are still used (by NASA, for example) because they work even though they are known to be wrong in detail. Sometimes you simply don't need that level of detail to do the work.

So, suppose you have two methods to solve a problem, method 1 and method 2. Method 1 is much easier to use and gives a result that agrees with observation to 4 decimal places, but disagrees starting in the 5th decimal place. Method 2 is much harder to use, but gives a result that agrees with observations to at least 9 decimal places and has never been found to be wrong.. In your work, you need a result that is accurate to 3 decimal places. Which method do you use? Answer: method 1. Even though it is known to be wrong in detail.


This is how science tends to progress. New ideas *do* replace the old ones in detail. But, once a viewpoint has been tested in a certain collection of cases, it tends to be used for those cases if it is easier than the better explanations. The old views don't go away *if* they are accurate enough for many situations that people encounter. But those that are not accurate enough for even simple cases *are* discarded.

The reason evolution won't go away is that we *know* that biological species have changed over time. This is like finding out that the Earth goes around the sun. We will never go back to a geocentric viewpoint again. We may still have to modify our ideas of *why* species change and *how* they change. But the basic fact that species change (evolution) has been established.

Well said.

But I'm afraid that our friend here won't be interested. You keep wanting to tie ideas to observation and utility. He's pretty much already dismissed evidence and empiricism.

It's a strange phenomenon, one I encountered occasionally on the other site. Look at how divorced from empiricism this guy is:

"facts need not even refer to anything real or truthful in any way." http://www.topix.com/forum/news/evolution/TAM2VEMBIJAGHCBBK/post46482

"You cannot confirm, prove, or make more legitimate any theory using supporting evidence. " http://www.topix.com/forum/news/evolution/TAM2VEMBIJAGHCBBK/post48112

"Science does not treat any observation as reliable. It doesn't use them"
http://www.topix.com/forum/news/evolution/TAM2VEMBIJAGHCBBK/post48180
 

Polymath257

Think & Care
Staff member
Premium Member
Well said.

But I'm afraid that our friend here won't be interested. You keep wanting to tie ideas to observation and utility. He's pretty much already dismissed evidence and empiricism.

It's a strange phenomenon, one I encountered occasionally on the other site. Look at how divorced from empiricism this guy is:

"facts need not even refer to anything real or truthful in any way." http://www.topix.com/forum/news/evolution/TAM2VEMBIJAGHCBBK/post46482

"You cannot confirm, prove, or make more legitimate any theory using supporting evidence. " http://www.topix.com/forum/news/evolution/TAM2VEMBIJAGHCBBK/post48112

"Science does not treat any observation as reliable. It doesn't use them"
http://www.topix.com/forum/news/evolution/TAM2VEMBIJAGHCBBK/post48180


And, yet, I'd bet he uses the evidence of his senses when walking around. If you don't believe in that tree because you reject the evidence, then you may well get hurt. But, if evidence is irrelevant, then getting hurt has no consequences, right?
 

Zosimus

Active Member
And you are wrong. Newton called his theory a law because of the language used at the time. But, and this is important, Newton's law of gravity is wrong. Other ideas that were *thought* to be unbreakable laws have been found to be wrong. Because of that, most scientists today are very reluctant to use the word 'law' with the old connotation of being unbreakable and certain. Instead, we realize that Newton proposed a *theory* about how gravity works. That *theory* passed many observational tests that could have falsified it if it had been drastically wrong. Nonetheless, it was wrong in detail.
Well, it's obvious that you don't know what the heck you're talking about. Therefore, I refer you to Is Gravity a Theory or a Law? | The Happy Scientist , which explains the difference between a theory and a law.

Only because you misunderstand the foundations of it. Suppose you have several possible explanations of a phenomenon. Is there a way to test between them and at least eliminate the false ones? Yes! Go to the real world, collect evidence and discard those 'explanations' that do not make valid predictions of what will be found. The predictions should be done ahead of time.
Well, that sounds great in a textbook, but it doesn't actually work in the real world. A simple look at history shows that there were a lot of back and forth experiments about whether light was a wave or a particle. First one experiment "proved" that it was a wave. Then another experiment "proved" that it was a particle. Now science has given up and admits that they have no idea what light is but that it has elements of both forms.

Second, it's always possible for a popular theory to avoid falsification by adopting ad hoc hypotheses to avoid falsification. We need look no further than Peahens do not prefer peacocks with the best tails which shows that peahens (the female of a peacock) do not prefer peacocks with more elaborate tails. Has Darwin been refuted? Of course not—scientists just theorize that peahens used to like long tails but now they like masculine throaty growls that are associated with higher testosterone levels. No need to change the theory, or even rethink it really. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain and move on.

Finally, there's the philosophical problem of underdetermination. Fundamentally, there will always be multiple theories that can explain any dataset. In fact, an infinite number of graphs can be constructed with any given data set. No matter how many you rule out with a new data point, there will still be an infinite number staring you in the face.

Well, science has a lot more achievements under its belt than your philosophical stance does.
I doubt that! But let's try it: Show one scientific achievement that was accomplished without the use of math. That ought to be good.

No, the burden proof rests on the one making the positive existential claim.
What you have just said is a positive existential claim. Please provide proof for it.
While you're at it, please provide proof for the claim "Science can explain all natural phenomena, observed and unobserved, past, present and future, without ever having to say 'God did it.'"

Tall order.

Let me give you a historical example. Aristotle's ideas about gravity were wrong. They made testable predictions and those predictions were not verified by the evidence from observation.
P=>Q
~Q
---------
~P

Newton came along and gave a different proposal concerning how gravity works. This fit the known data and made predictions of what would be seen in the future.
P=>Q
Q seems unlikely
Q
------------------
P seems more likely

In fact, Newton's ideas were accurate enough to make predictions that were accurate to a much higher degree than anyone expected at first. However, eventually, it was found that the observations started to differ from the results of actual observations. Newton's ideas were falsified.

P=>Q
~Q
-------------
~P

Einstein came along and presented still another viewpoint on gravity. So far, this viewpoint has agreed with all the evidence in spite of attempts to prove it wrong.
Yes, but you're forgetting pessimistic induction. Aristotle had some ideas. They were wrong. Then Newton had some ideas. They were wrong. Now Einstein has some ideas. If history is a good guide, then Einstein's ideas are wrong too.

Now, I am NOT going to claim that Einstein's ideas are correct. What I *am* going to point out is that Newton's ideas didn't disappear even though they have been shown wrong in detail.

Why?

Newton's ideas are still used (by NASA, for example) because they work even though they are known to be wrong in detail. Sometimes you simply don't need that level of detail to do the work.
So what you're basically saying is that wrong ideas can still be useful. But two minutes later someone's going to say, "Our theory is so useful that it must be correct!"

You can't have it both ways, mate.

So, suppose you have two methods to solve a problem, method 1 and method 2. Method 1 is much easier to use and gives a result that agrees with observation to 4 decimal places, but disagrees starting in the 5th decimal place. Method 2 is much harder to use, but gives a result that agrees with observations to at least 9 decimal places and has never been found to be wrong.. In your work, you need a result that is accurate to 3 decimal places. Which method do you use? Answer: method 1. Even though it is known to be wrong in detail.

But Aristotle's ideas are NOT used: they have disappeared. Why? Because they are not even accurate enough for day-to-day work. They are SO inaccurate that they cannot be used with any confidence. Notice that they were never tested and verified in *any* cases.
You're mixing your metaphors, mate. Are you about verification or falsification?


This is how science tends to progress. New ideas *do* replace the old ones in detail. But, once a viewpoint has been tested in a certain collection of cases, it tends to be used for those cases if it is easier than the better explanations. The old views don't go away *if* they are accurate enough for many situations that people encounter. But those that are not accurate enough for even simple cases *are* discarded.
Sure. Science has 0 known true theories and large numbers of known false theories. What does that say about science's track record?

The reason evolution won't go away is that we *know* that biological species have changed over time.
Well, no, you know nothing of the sort, but let's assume (for the sake of argument) that you did. What would that imply? Certainly far less than you think. I see posts all that time that run something like this: Bacteria X could not synthesize tryptophan. It was placed in a tryptophan-poor environment. It developed a method of synthesizing tryptophan. Conclusion: Since bacteria can learn to synthesize tryptophan, fish can learn to walk on land and breathe.

Isn't that kind of a leap? Experiments with bacteria X might (or might not) tell you things about bacteria X. These experiments are not necessarily even transferable to bacteria Y much less to fish. Yet I am constantly forced to endure inane logic such as this. It tends to exasperate.

This is like finding out that the Earth goes around the sun. We will never go back to a geocentric viewpoint again. We may still have to modify our ideas of *why* species change and *how* they change. But the basic fact that species change (evolution) has been established.
Okay, first of all, the Earth does not go around the Sun. This is a convenient fiction invented by your high school teacher to simplify the actual movement of the Sun and the Earth. In reality, no one knows what goes around what. Only relative motion can be described. Additionally, all items in the solar system are theorized to go around the barycenter of the solar system, but even this is ridiculous because the Sun is moving around the barycenter of the Milky Way Galaxy at such an incredible speed that describing movement inside the solar system as though it were an inertial frame of reference is laughable. And that doesn't include the idea that our galaxy is zooming away from other galaxies (or maybe they are zooming away from us) at such a rate of speed that light (apparently) can't even keep up.
 

Zosimus

Active Member
You misunderstand the logic of science. Science works on the following principle:

If I have several different proposals of how something works, I use each of them to make a new prediction. Then I test that prediction. I keep doing this until only one proposal is left.

While that last proposal may not be true, it *is* the best we have.

We use evidence to *eliminate* alternatives. Lamarckian evolution, for example. Or that mutation is directed. Or that species are stable.
You are obviously ignorant of the Quine-Duhem thesis. If you had heard of it, you wouldn't be making such foolish claims.

Let's take a simple example. Let's say that we propose to test the speed of light. We set up a simple experiment and we measure the speed of light, but surprisingly it comes in at over 20 percent below the official "standard" speed of light.

What's wrong? Well, there are multiple possibilities:

1. Our equipment is malfunctioning somehow.
2. Our experiment is badly designed.
3. The speed of light was actually different at the moment we measured it.
4. Something else (covering all possibilities that exist but that I cannot think of or cannot be bothered to enumerate at this point in time).

The point is that every scientific experiment suffers from this problem. When you find that things don't work according to theory clearly something is wrong, but you don't know what.

Thus, as a practical matter, no theory can ever truly be falsified. Theories just fall out of fashion and get replaced by new, more popular ones.
 

Zosimus

Active Member
Now, suppose you have two theories S and T. Suppose S=>~P and T=>P. Now you observe P. Can you conclude anything?
No. See the Quine-Duhem Thesis.

But even worse, you miss the whole logic of scientific discourse. It doesn't attempt to *prove* the general theories. Instead, it attempts to determine the amount of *confidence* those theories should engender in certain domains of discourse.
This should be interesting. Please indicate the amount of confidence I should have in the theory of evolution. Use actual numbers. Show your math.
 

Zosimus

Active Member
And, yet, I'd bet he uses the evidence of his senses when walking around. If you don't believe in that tree because you reject the evidence, then you may well get hurt. But, if evidence is irrelevant, then getting hurt has no consequences, right?
How did you learn to walk?

You were young, probably even less than one year old. All the evidence seemed to indicate that you could not walk. You had tried, unsuccessfully, multiple times. Nevertheless, you persisted. Perhaps your parents reassured you that you could do so. Perhaps you made the logical fallacy that if others could walk then so could you. For whatever reason you, filled with faith, persisted in trying to walk and one day you did.

You are a man of faith.
 

Polymath257

Think & Care
Staff member
Premium Member
Well, it's obvious that you don't know what the heck you're talking about. Therefore, I refer you to Is Gravity a Theory or a Law? | The Happy Scientist , which explains the difference between a theory and a law.
By the definition in that article, then, the 'theory' of general relativity should be the 'law' of general relativity. it is a mathematical description of how things work.

And the point is that the distinction between 'law' and 'theory' is a false one. Newton's 'law' of gravity was found to be wrong in detail and was replaced by a better description. That better description is called the 'Theory of general relativity'. But, the new description is also mathematical in nature. It is general and allows for detailed predictions of what will happen.

Well, that sounds great in a textbook, but it doesn't actually work in the real world. A simple look at history shows that there were a lot of back and forth experiments about whether light was a wave or a particle. First one experiment "proved" that it was a wave. Then another experiment "proved" that it was a particle. Now science has given up and admits that they have no idea what light is but that it has elements of both forms.
This is an incorrect description. What we now know is that light is BOTH a wave and a particle. But it is neither a *classical* wave nor a *classical* particle.

Second, it's always possible for a popular theory to avoid falsification by adopting ad hoc hypotheses to avoid falsification. We need look no further than Peahens do not prefer peacocks with the best tails which shows that peahens (the female of a peacock) do not prefer peacocks with more elaborate tails. Has Darwin been refuted? Of course not—scientists just theorize that peahens used to like long tails but now they like masculine throaty growls that are associated with higher testosterone levels. No need to change the theory, or even rethink it really. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain and move on.
Which is why predictions should be made *before* the data is collected.

Finally, there's the philosophical problem of underdetermination. Fundamentally, there will always be multiple theories that can explain any dataset. In fact, an infinite number of graphs can be constructed with any given data set. No matter how many you rule out with a new data point, there will still be an infinite number staring you in the face.
Yes. But there are two citeria to be used in this situation: 1. Testability. and 2. Simplicity. We consider any two explanations that give the same predicted observations as being equivalent. And, while philosophers like to go round and round about the iea of 'grue', it turns out that isn't at all how scientists actually work. Again, you miss the logic involved completely.

I doubt that! But let's try it: Show one scientific achievement that was accomplished without the use of math. That ought to be good.
I said it has more justification than your philosophical position. You switched the goalpost.


What you have just said is a positive existential claim. Please provide proof for it.
No, actually, it is not. I did not claim that anything existed.

While you're at it, please provide proof for the claim "Science can explain all natural phenomena, observed and unobserved, past, present and future, without ever having to say 'God did it.'"

Tall order.
As long as it doesn't need to use that hypothesis, there is no reason to consider that hypothesis. I make no claims about future theories.

Yes, but you're forgetting pessimistic induction. Aristotle had some ideas. They were wrong. Then Newton had some ideas. They were wrong. Now Einstein has some ideas. If history is a good guide, then Einstein's ideas are wrong too.
And they probably are wrong *in detail*. But they still work to a certain level of precision. And that makes them useful. Furthermore, the level of precision keeps getting better. While Newton's ideas worked to a certain level of accuracy, Einstein's work to a much higher level of accuracy. Even if they are wrong, they still work to that level of accuracy in those domains where they have been tested.

So what you're basically saying is that wrong ideas can still be useful. But two minutes later someone's going to say, "Our theory is so useful that it must be correct!"
No, someone will say that we have a great deal of confidence in them in those domains where they have been tested.

So, for example, I could ask whether the number pi is 3.141592653589793. If I am working for NASA, the answer is that it is close enough for all possible uses I will encounter. In that sense, it is correct. But, if I am talking to a mathematician, the answer is incorrect because pi is an irrational number and I gave a rational number.

Nothing in science claims to be *absolutely* correct. Nothing. But it *can* be correct to a certain level of accuracy. So, it *is* correct to say, even for a mathematician, that pi is 3.141592653589793 to 15 decimal places of accuracy. And, if you are doing work that only requires 4 decimal places of accuracy, then it is a perfectly good, even excessive, value to use for your calculations.

So, when someone says that a scientific result is correct, they mean it is correct to a certain level of accuracy, usually to the degree we have been able to test so far. That doesn't mean absolutel correctness.


You can't have it both ways, mate.

See above.

You're mixing your metaphors, mate. Are you about verification or falsification?
Falsification to eliminate wrong ideas and verification to delineate the degree of confidence in areas of applicability. Both are required and good to have.

Sure. Science has 0 known true theories and large numbers of known false theories. What does that say about science's track record?
Science is getting more and more accurate over time. What does that say about its track record?


Well, no, you know nothing of the sort, but let's assume (for the sake of argument) that you did. What would that imply? Certainly far less than you think. I see posts all that time that run something like this: Bacteria X could not synthesize tryptophan. It was placed in a tryptophan-poor environment. It developed a method of synthesizing tryptophan. Conclusion: Since bacteria can learn to synthesize tryptophan, fish can learn to walk on land and breathe.
Nope. What is shows is that beneficial mutations are possible. Since there is a claim that they are impossible among creationists, the demonstration of beneficial mutations is a relevant point.

That fish can learn to walk and breathe is better dealt with via the fossil record, actual examples of fish today, and other methods.

Isn't that kind of a leap? Experiments with bacteria X might (or might not) tell you things about bacteria X. These experiments are not necessarily even transferable to bacteria Y much less to fish. Yet I am constantly forced to endure inane logic such as this. It tends to exasperate.
And yes, further testing is required concerning how things work in fish. I am not claiming otherwise. But, when different organisms use similar processes in their genetics, that *does* increase the confidence level that transfer from one species to another is possible. Over time, we even learn *which* things are transferable by more extensive testing.

Okay, first of all, the Earth does not go around the Sun. This is a convenient fiction invented by your high school teacher to simplify the actual movement of the Sun and the Earth. In reality, no one knows what goes around what. Only relative motion can be described. Additionally, all items in the solar system are theorized to go around the barycenter of the solar system, but even this is ridiculous because the Sun is moving around the barycenter of the Milky Way Galaxy at such an incredible speed that describing movement inside the solar system as though it were an inertial frame of reference is laughable. And that doesn't include the idea that our galaxy is zooming away from other galaxies (or maybe they are zooming away from us) at such a rate of speed that light (apparently) can't even keep up.

And yet, the position that everything goes around the Earth has been falsified. What you have described are modifications of the basic heliocentric system, not negations of it. Nobody is going to go back to the geocentric model. Nor, for that matter, will they go back to the model proposed by Copernicus.

Furthermore, the solar system *does* provide an inertial reference frame to a very high degree of accuracy. It isn't the *velocity* around the center of our galaxy that is relevant for whether the frame is inertial, it is the *acceleration*. And, while the velocity is moderate, the acceleration is quite low. So, unless you want a great deal of accuracy, using the solar system as an inertial frame is good enough.
 
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sayak83

Veteran Member
Staff member
Premium Member
I'm criticizing the logical fallacies that you spew in the forum.
What is the fallacy? Science uses Bayesian inference and prediction to update the probabilities of its theories in light of observations, successful/unsuccessful predictions and experiments. Are you saying Bayesian inference is illogical?

Please explain what is the correct logic in going about while deciding what among the solid substances around me are things I can eat to assuage hunger. Since you are very good with logic, this should be no problem. Correct?
 

Polymath257

Think & Care
Staff member
Premium Member
No. See the Quine-Duhem Thesis.
Quine and Duhem differed in their positions. Duhem, for example, accepted that it is possible to test ideas in physics. Because of that, and since the other sciences eventually fall back on physics, it *is* possible to test hypotheses even with under determination. Quine has retracted much of his initial position.
 
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