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Israel Under Attack! - War Declared

S

Sargonski

Well-Known Member
Shaul said:
I am imagining the aircraft carrier isn't there to directly engage Hamas. But instead to send a message to other enemies in the area to not exploit the current situation as the U.S. would support Israel should things escalate.
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Same idea .. think about it .. 1) who would do some activity on the water .. like trying to get in arms or supplies ?? as in the previous analogy .. this is a very small patch of Sea .. in a very small patch in general .. and one in which Israel is in complete control .. so if you are going to send something in .. it will have to be "BIG"

2) who is capable of "BIG" ?? Iran is about the only one in the region with any realistic capability or desire.. and don't see that happening .. that would be direct war with Israel .. and anything they sent would just get Crushed .. Israel is a missile and drone powerhouse .. unfortunate we did not get to see some of their stuff operating in the Ukraine Theatre .. China would be another interesting one .. but I digress.

highly unlikely Iran would attempt such a thing ... who else ? no one .. and on the off 100-1 odds chance and some nation gets a force together for one run .. Israel doesn't need a US Carrier Group to crush it .. .. F35s will take off from one of the numerous runways in Israel.. boom boom boom what ever is coming by land or sea .. to aid the poor Gazans .. who are about to be massacred.
 
metis

metis

aged ecumenical anthropologist
Yokefellow said:
More and more reports coming out that Iran was involved...
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1711121799344226594

Wall Street Journal article (via Paywall)...

www.wsj.com

WSJ News Exclusive | Iran Helped Plot Attack on Israel Over Several Weeks

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps gave the final go-ahead last Monday in Beirut.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com

View attachment 83316
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According to our intelligence sources, there's no direct evidence that Iran initiated this attack.

BTW, I do not trust Murdoch's WSJ on much of anything that's political.
 
Yokefellow

Yokefellow

Active Member
Hamas and Hezbollah began to threaten the United States. The terrorists say that if the US intervenes in the war, they will start bombing their military bases. "Our missiles will be directed against American bases if they intervene in the 'Flood of Al-Aqsa' battle," said Abu Hussein Al-Hamidawi, secretary general of Hezbollah Brigades in Iraq...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1711840256251576663
 
Yokefellow

Yokefellow

Active Member
Urgent Advisory from the Israeli Government: Within the next few hours, Hamas terrorists are expected to disseminate photos and videos of hostages and acts of torture across social media platforms. The Government of Israel urgently requests the following actions be taken.

1. Do not engage in sharing these images or videos under any circumstances. Doing so contributes to psychological warfare against both the State of Israel and its citizens.

2. Shield minors from exposure to this disturbing content. The images and videos are highly graphic and could induce significant emotional distress. Your cooperation in adhering to these directives is critically important.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1711848780964720936
 
B

Bthoth

Well-Known Member
I am wondering if IDF are just reading online posting. Most of the posts on this chain are just 'x' feeds by random people.
 
Onasander

Onasander

Member
Bthoth said:
I am wondering if IDF are just reading online posting. Most of the posts on this chain are just 'x' feeds by random people.
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Some I recognize from OSINT groups. I mostly focus on hostage location so don't interact as much in the group discussions on Twitter spaces.

But yeah.... this thread is a random stream of some well known and not so well known persons. Doesn't make it wrong, but I usually go to a few guys I know well per region who have their own trusted sources when I report. I don't think that's too necessary to do on a site like this as even the most batty posters (people who think earth is 6000 years old for example) have advanced hermeneutics skills, even if self taught. Most have some awareness of some aspects of the philosophy of history.... I don't agree with most conclusions on politics here on this site but they are better informed than most people on the street and I think most people here could easily be trained as military analysts. So I let people come to their own conclusions.

Just be aware of the risk of being always first to respond often means being found shortly after as being wrong. Maintain a good sleep schedule and don't obsess too much. Constant researching can be addictive. I know from personal experience and seen others burn out from it, staying up days straight trying to cover it all.
 
B

Bthoth

Well-Known Member
Onasander said:
Some I recognize from OSINT groups.
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I wonder if AI is being used to focus streams of information
Onasander said:
I mostly focus on hostage location so don't interact as much in the group discussions on Twitter spaces.
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I am betting that most are underground by now and why, blowing up so many buildings will not be assisting in a recovery operation
Onasander said:
But yeah.... this thread is a random stream of some well known and not so well known persons. Doesn't make it wrong, but I usually go to a few guys I know well per region who have their own trusted sources when I report. I don't think that's too necessary to do on a site like this as even the most batty posters (people who think earth is 6000 years old for example) have advanced hermeneutics skills, even if self taught. Most have some awareness of some aspects of the philosophy of history.... I don't agree with most conclusions on politics here on this site but they are better informed than most people on the street and I think most people here could easily be trained as military analysts. So I let people come to their own conclusions.
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Having many layers of input, is good, even if some is just redundant. Cudos for the optimism
Onasander said:
Just be aware of the risk of being always first to respond often means being found shortly after as being wrong. Maintain a good sleep schedule and don't obsess too much. Constant researching can be addictive. I know from personal experience and seen others burn out from it, staying up days straight trying to cover it all.
Click to expand...
I understand that part as some folk get too personal and lack the self control to actually do the homework.
 
Onasander

Onasander

Member
Bthoth said:
I wonder if AI is being used to focus streams of information

I am betting that most are underground by now and why, blowing up so many buildings will not be assisting in a recovery operation

Having many layers of input, is good, even if some is just redundant. Cudos for the optimism

I understand that part as some folk get too personal and lack the self control to actually do the homework.
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I suspect Israel will bomb most.

For a combined armed force that is mostly infantry, the are tactically limited by communications at the company and battalion levels command and control. You'll have companies tasked with taking streets, straight down.... in such a manner they don't turn corners and shoot each other in a cross fire, or exit buildings bumping into one another shooting.

So it will be company A and B gets a Blvd, C and D follows another. When they get bogged down in firefights, the temptation will be to have 9-10 hour fights. Instead the commanders will just call in a air strike. Why? To keep the momentum of the larger battalion together, so they can mutually support one another if need be, and make it easier for air assets to track, and makes the job of generals easier.

So if you were a hostage kidnapped.... guess where you'll most likely be? Pancaked in a destroyed Hamas building right now, or in a building described above where the 9-10 hour firefights might break out in. If they don't call in a air strike, the hostages might be recovered, but if they do.... no need to go digging for holes. Hostages aren't gonna be kept in them. Muslims of higher importance will hide in anything resembling a fallout shelter.

You also gotta factor in the IDF is mostly a draft army. These guys have very basic infantry skills, and are expected within hours to days to kick open doors to big sprawling buildings in a large city. Many (IDF soldiers) are gonna be scared and will shoot first at anything that moves. A hostage makes a good human shield for a terrorist. Their value after all plummets when rescue teams are kicking open doors down the hall.
 
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