Job claims off by 1,000,000

[Shaul]

The second quarter number of jobs was inflated by over 1,000,000 according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

The Biden administration vastly overstated its estimate that employers created more than 1 million jobs in the second quarter of this year, claiming historic job growth when in fact hiring had stalled, according to a new estimate.

Job growth was “essentially flat” in the second quarter with only 10,500 jobs added, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said.

At the time Biden administration officials trumpeted the higher numbers and used them to argue there was no recession. The inflated numbers also influenced the mid term elections.

Biden second-quarter job numbers off by 1 million, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank says

 

[Shaul]

I disagree with those that are asserting that the Biden administration is lying. (As Senator Scott does in the article) They could simply be incompetent and not knowingly spreading untruths. However, now that better information is available, the administration should correct the record and admit that we were in a recession earlier this year. But I am not expecting them to do that.

 

[PoetPhilosopher]

The second quarter number of jobs was inflated by over 1,000,000 according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

The Biden administration vastly overstated its estimate that employers created more than 1 million jobs in the second quarter of this year, claiming historic job growth when in fact hiring had stalled, according to a new estimate.

Job growth was “essentially flat” in the second quarter with only 10,500 jobs added, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said.

At the time Biden administration officials trumpeted the higher numbers and used them to argue there was no recession. The inflated numbers also influenced the mid term elections.

Biden second-quarter job numbers off by 1 million, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank says

Another perspective: A new Philadelphia Fed report has fueled a Tucker Carlson conspiracy. Here's what the report says, and what it means.

 

[Twilight Hue]

The second quarter number of jobs was inflated by over 1,000,000 according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

The Biden administration vastly overstated its estimate that employers created more than 1 million jobs in the second quarter of this year, claiming historic job growth when in fact hiring had stalled, according to a new estimate.

Job growth was “essentially flat” in the second quarter with only 10,500 jobs added, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said.

At the time Biden administration officials trumpeted the higher numbers and used them to argue there was no recession. The inflated numbers also influenced the mid term elections.

Biden second-quarter job numbers off by 1 million, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank says

They have been lying about it for some time now

Not fooling anyone. Inflation is worse than ever as reflected in the insane prices I pay for goods and services now.

 

[PureX]

I'm curious why you just assume some bank in Philadelphia has the inside track on those numbers, beyond the fact that you hate Biden.

 

[Shaul]

Another perspective: A new Philadelphia Fed report has fueled a Tucker Carlson conspiracy. Here's what the report says, and what it means.

Like I wrote, those saying the Biden administration was "lying" are wrong to do so. [Note for the record, another instance of me defending Biden and demonstrating impartiality.]

As for this article's description of the new Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's report, I think it demonstrated a lot of "tap dancing" and lack of substance. The Reserve Bank's bases its analysis on the actual reports from employers. Unlike the quarterly reports the Biden administration referenced which rely on household surveys. The former are more accurate than the latter.

But the bottom line remains the same. The numbers were inflated.

 

[Shaul]

I'm curious why you just assume some bank in Philadelphia has the inside track on those numbers, beyond the fact that you hate Biden.

<sigh>
I don't assume "some bank" has better numbers. First of all, it isn't "some bank". It is one of the Federal Reserve banks. The reason its numbers are more accurate, as has been already noted in this thread, is because it bases them on actually officially reported and filed jobs from employers in contrast to the quarterly report which relies on (telephone) surveys of households. The bank's method is more accurate but must wait for the data to be available. The quarterly report provides a quicker but less accurate number.

As for hating Biden, I actually don't. If anything I feel rather sorry for him. I think he is in over his head. I also think he has mental health issues due to decline in acumen and is probably in the early stages of dementia. I hope I am wrong about that, but that is my opinion. But I wouldn't wish such a prognosis on my worst enemy. I do think he is corrupt and a grifter. He also appears bitter. I don't think his ill-gotten gains will be much comfort to him in the end. And I think you should note, I have even come to his defense in this thread (and I have in other threads in the past) against uncalled for allegations of lying.

 

[PureX]

<sigh>
I don't assume "some bank" has better numbers. First of all, it isn't "some bank". It is one of the Federal Reserve banks. The reason its numbers are more accurate, as has been already noted in this thread, is because it bases them on actually officially reported and filed jobs from employers in contrast to the quarterly report which relies on (telephone) surveys of households. The bank's method is more accurate but must wait for the data to be available. The quarterly report provides a quicker but less accurate number.

As for hating Biden, I actually don't. If anything I feel rather sorry for him. I think he is in over his head. I also think he has mental health issues due to decline in acumen and is probably in the early stages of dementia. I hope I am wrong about that, but that is my opinion. But I wouldn't wish such a prognosis on my worst enemy. I do think he is corrupt and a grifter. He also appears bitter. I don't think his ill-gotten gains will be much comfort to him in the end. And I think you should note, I have even come to his defense in this thread (and I have in other threads in the past) against uncalled for allegations of lying.

So, all the other fed banks are incompitant?

This, like all your threads, smells of the right wing political echo chamber. I don't doubt that Biden exaggerates those numbers, as have every president in the history of the country, and in most other countries, too. But I also doubt that it means much of anything at all in the grand economic scheme of things.

The really scary numbers that they are ALL hiding from (not even counting) is the number of chronically unemployed in this country. Many, many millions of them. And not only unemployed, but most have become and are becoming terminally unemployable.

 

[PoetPhilosopher]

As for hating Biden, I actually don't. If anything I feel rather sorry for him. I think he is in over his head. I also think he has mental health issues due to decline in acumen and is probably in the early stages of dementia. I hope I am wrong about that, but that is my opinion. But I wouldn't wish such a prognosis on my worst enemy. I do think he is corrupt and a grifter. He also appears bitter. I don't think his ill-gotten gains will be much comfort to him in the end. And I think you should note, I have even come to his defense in this thread (and I have in other threads in the past) against uncalled for allegations of lying.

You and I have different ideas of "coming to a person's defense".

 

[Shaul]

So, all the other fed banks are incompitant?

This, like all your threads, smells of the right wing political echo chamber. I don't doubt that Biden exaggerates those numbers, as have every president in the history of the country, and in most other countries, too. But I also doubt that it means much of anything at all in the grand economic scheme of things.

The really scary numbers that they are ALL hiding from (not even counting) is the number of chronically unemployed in this country. Many, many millions of them. And not only unemployed, but most have become and are becoming terminally unemployable.

Nobody said anything like that. The different Federal Reserve banks work together. Some focus on certain things and others focus on other things. They coordinate so they don't needlessly duplicate efforts. This one happens to do the analysis of these employment numbers.

This isn't a right-wing or left-wing issue. It is just what it is, an economic issue. Sorry the numbers don't suit you or your political proclivities. But they are there.

The root cause of the employment problems, both in the U.S. and globally, is the demographic decline in employment aged populations. The U.S. has 10,000 people a day retiring but not that many new workers entering the marketplace.

 

[Shaul]

You and I have different ideas of "coming to a person's defense".

And I thank G-d for that.

I can point to times I have defended Biden. Can you point to any time you defended Trump?

 

[PoetPhilosopher]

And I thank G-d for that.

I can point to times I have defended Biden. Can you point to any time you defended Trump?

The closest I think I've come is around late 2019, when Trump was still in office, I made a thread asking for prayers for Trump, and got a few funny ratings and when I asked people about it, they said, "Oh, you were serious?" And they literally thought I was joking.

That being said, I don't consider praising Trump, at this point, to be useful.

 

[PoetPhilosopher]

The closest I've come is around late 2019, when Trump was still in office, I made a thread asking for prayers for Trump, and got a few funny ratings and when I asked people about it, they said, "Oh, you were serious?" And they literally thought I was joking.

That being said, I don't consider praising Trump, at this point, to be useful.

@Shaul : Here's a post where I was on the fence: I'm now undecided how I'll vote in 2024

I feel I was more positive in this thread than that "prayers for Trump" thread I mentioned.

 

[PureX]

This isn't a right-wing or left-wing issue.

Of course it is. That's why your posting about it. And it's why Biden inflated those numbers in the first place.

Economically speaking, it's really no issue at all, as 1 million jobs represents about .05% of the job market. AND we're still having trouble filling many of the jobs that already exist. So adding a few more, or not adding them, isn't really going to change anything.

 

[Shadow Wolf]

I'm curious why you just assume some bank in Philadelphia has the inside track on those numbers, beyond the fact that you hate Biden.

Because they have to ignore (or just forget) that presidents are known for overstating the jobs number and that its long been known the real unemployment rate is generally higher than the official count.

 

[metis]

But the bottom line remains the same. The numbers were inflated.

Were they inflated before?

My point is that we will never get a complete count as there's all so many variables. The important point is that we're better off in this area than what we were before.

 

[metis]

Biden second-quarter job numbers off by 1 million, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank says

Oh gee, the Wahington Times, what could possibly be wrong?

 

[sun rise]

I'm not an economist so the details of where the truth lies is uncertain and controversial. But it's also true that such uncertainty is a great opportunity to "lie with statistics". This image from the MarketWatch item illustrates the situation and the problem of taking one report and assuming it's accurate.

 

[sun rise]

One other comment: Of course Biden will use the most favorable number and the right will use the most unfavorable number. That's as predictable as the sun rising and setting.

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

The Biden administration vastly overstated its estimate that employers created more than 1 million jobs in the second quarter of this year, claiming historic job growth when in fact hiring had stalled, according to a new estimate.

Would this, in your opinion, warrant support for Trump in 2024?