My Prediction for the Coronavirus

[Regiomontanus]

I fully understand the seriousness of the coronavirus and fully sympathize with the people who have been affected by it in any way, and understand that many have lost loved ones due to this serious illness. So, in no way am I trying to minimize the seriousness of the illness. However, I also continue to stand by my statement that the predictions as to the death toll of the virus by the end of the year made by alleged experts are erroneously high, and caused by the error of extrapolating too far beyond the known data points. Here are some facts (Source: www.worldometers.info):

As of today, in 2020, worldwide there have been:

45,536 deaths due to coronavirus
338,269 deaths due to car accidents

By the end of 2020, I predict that the total number of deaths caused by coronavirus will still be less than the number of deaths caused by car accidents. This is my opinion, but I believe it is well-informed based on my own studying of the trends across countries. But, again, it is just an opinion, and only time will tell if it is correct. Again--in no way do I want to minimize the importance of taking the virus seriously, I'm simply making an informed prediction, and am not going to be arguing over it. Time will tell if it is correct.

I think there is an important point to be made though. I know people, including my own relatives, who are afraid of taking walks outside, yet still text while driving. Clearly, this is irrational (and dangerous) behavior. The media would have you believe that even merely taking a walk outside is reckless behavior that puts yourself and others at a huge risk. Yet many of the same people who live in constant fear of the coronavirus continue to drive without wearing a seatbelt, text while driving, or drive intoxicated. This makes no sense to me.

"However, I also continue to stand by my statement that the predictions as to the death toll of the virus by the end of the year made by alleged experts are erroneously high, and caused by the error of extrapolating too far beyond the known data points."

Hah. Forgive me for trusting the experts over you.

 

[Evangelicalhumanist]

I fully understand the seriousness of the coronavirus and fully sympathize with the people who have been affected by it in any way, and understand that many have lost loved ones due to this serious illness. So, in no way am I trying to minimize the seriousness of the illness. However, I also continue to stand by my statement that the predictions as to the death toll of the virus by the end of the year made by alleged experts are erroneously high, and caused by the error of extrapolating too far beyond the known data points. Here are some facts (Source: www.worldometers.info):

As of today, in 2020, worldwide there have been:

45,536 deaths due to coronavirus
338,269 deaths due to car accidents

By the end of 2020, I predict that the total number of deaths caused by coronavirus will still be less than the number of deaths caused by car accidents. This is my opinion, but I believe it is well-informed based on my own studying of the trends across countries. But, again, it is just an opinion, and only time will tell if it is correct. Again--in no way do I want to minimize the importance of taking the virus seriously, I'm simply making an informed prediction, and am not going to be arguing over it. Time will tell if it is correct.

I think there is an important point to be made though. I know people, including my own relatives, who are afraid of taking walks outside, yet still text while driving. Clearly, this is irrational (and dangerous) behavior. The media would have you believe that even merely taking a walk outside is reckless behavior that puts yourself and others at a huge risk. Yet many of the same people who live in constant fear of the coronavirus continue to drive without wearing a seatbelt, text while driving, or drive intoxicated. This makes no sense to me.

If car accidents were highly contagious, you might have something. But alas, no...

 

[Regiomontanus]

If car accidents were highly contagious, you might have something. But alas, no...

Happy birthday

 

[mikkel_the_dane]

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=624694675031357

Here you go, @Hubert Farnsworth

It is not perfect for the math, but it is good enough.

So, now you or a relative of yours or another significant one in your life is involved in a car crash. You need health care and your life could be saved, but now it won't because the system doesn't have the capacity because of the corona virus flooding the system. Or you get infected, because of lack of PPE and then you die.
That is the problem.

Regards
Mikkel

 

[Hildeburh]

When the flu comparison isn't quite vapid enough for you...

This says it all.

 

[Mock Turtle]

This is another (a retired pathology professor) who posits that the virus 'isn’t necessarily much worse than a seasonal flu'. Tragic mistake to make if it is more like MERS, SARS, Ebola, etc., and having a much worse impact:

UK has 'overreacted' to coronavirus outbreak and lockdown could be 'less dramatic', claims ex-NHS doctor | Metro News

 

[Terrywoodenpic]

This is another (a retired pathology professor) who posits that the virus 'isn’t necessarily much worse than a seasonal flu'. Tragic mistake to make if it is more like MERS, SARS, Ebola, etc., and having a much worse impact:

UK has 'overreacted' to coronavirus outbreak and lockdown could be 'less dramatic', claims ex-NHS doctor | Metro News

He is not one of the doctors who have died then.

 

[Mock Turtle]

He is not one of the doctors who have died then.

No, a thinker rather than hands-on, and there are a few like him quite probably, who might be right but I doubt it.

 

[ManSinha]

I think there is an important point to be made though. I know people, including my own relatives, who are afraid of taking walks outside, yet still text while driving. Clearly, this is irrational (and dangerous) behavior. The media would have you believe that even merely taking a walk outside is reckless behavior that puts yourself and others at a huge risk. Yet many of the same people who live in constant fear of the coronavirus continue to drive without wearing a seatbelt, text while driving, or drive intoxicated. This makes no sense to me.

@Hubert Farnsworth - one simple question - has any of the lethal events you alluded to - threatened to overwhelm health systems and cause discussion of rationing the way corona virus has? If not then - then there is IMHO - no comparison - and this comes from an MD with a background in Critical Care, Population Health, Public Policy and Computer Science (me)