World News
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-2473379,00.html
The TimesNovember 27, 2006
Boys wave the Palestinian flag in celebration after Israeli troops pulled out of Beit Lahiya, in the northern Gaza Strip, ending months of deadly clashes (Hatem Moussa/AP)
Bloody and wasted, both sides hope Gaza withdrawal may lead to peace
Stephen Farrell, Gaza City
Occupation ends after five months
Israeli troops pulled out of the Gaza Strip yesterday, raising hopes that a ceasefire announced by Palestinian militants could pave the way to a lasting truce and eventual peace talks.
All sides were cautious after five months of bloodshed that has followed the capture of the Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit by Hamas on June 25, during which 400 Palestinians have been killed. Three Israeli soldiers have also been killed, and two civilians by Palestinian rockets fired from Gaza.
The breakthrough raised the prospect of progress toward a big bang deal to secure an exchange of Corporal Shalit and Palestinian prisoners, a Palestinian national unity government and the lifting of Israeli and international sanctions, with Hamas ceding power to a technocratic coalition government.
Both sides seemed committed to calm, prompting some analysts to link the breakthrough to the arrival in the region on Wednesday of President Bush, who will meet Nouri al-Maliki, the Prime Minister of Iraq.
Israel promised restraint despite the firing of rockets by Islamic Jihad and other factions only hours after the declaration. Ehud Olmert, Israels Prime Minister, said that he had instructed the army not to respond and to give this ceasefire a chance to take full effect. He added: All of these could lead to one thing the opening of serious, real, open and direct negotiations . . . so that we can move towards a comprehensive agreement between us and the Palestinians.
Mahmoud Abbas, the moderate Palestinian President, ordered Palestinian Authority security chiefs to enforce the ceasefire, saying it was according to the higher interests of the Palestinian people . . . to reduce their suffering.
In a fanfare of publicity, Mr Abbass office announced that 13,000 security forces had been deployed to stop rocket attacks. But, on a tour of the rocket firing areas and approach roads last night, The Times saw not a single Palestinian soldier.
More significantly, the Hamas rival to Mr Abbas, Ismail Haniya, the Prime Minister, met the militant factions last night in Gaza to persuade sceptics, notably Islamic Jihad and Fatah splinter groups, to comply.
The ceasefire took place against a backdrop of threats from Hamas that it would begin a new intifada within six months if it sees no progress towards Palestinian statehood.
Meeting Egyptian mediators in Cairo, Khaled Mashaal, Hamass supreme leader, indicated that the Islamist group would permit Mr Abbas to conduct negotiations on behalf of the Palestinians, but that he had limited time.
Demanding a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza he said: We give six months to open real political horizons . . . they have to seize this opportunity. If not, Hamas will become stronger, all resistance forces will become stronger . . . and will go on with a third uprising.
Israel and the Palestinians have been locked in a stand-off since March, when Hamas came to power after winning Palestinian parliamentary elections. The Islamist group was immediately hit with an international boycott spearheaded by Israel and Washington, losing hundreds of millions of dollars in tax revenue and international aid because it refused to recognise Israel and renounce violence.
The embargo left the Palestinian Authority broke and unable to pay salaries of 160,000 civil servants since March, fuelling internal and external crises with a breakdown in law and order, and a vicious retaliatory cycle of Israeli assassination strikes and Palestinian rocket attacks.The violence escalated suddenly on June 25 when Hamas launched a surprise cross-border raid on an Israeli military post, capturing Corporal Shalit. Israel called it a terrorist kidnap, while Hamas proclaimed him a military target seized as a bargaining tool to obtain the release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.
Israel immediately launched substantial air attacks in Gaza, cripping its only power station and destroying bridges, roads and other civilian infrastructure to pressure the Palestinians into returning the soldier.
The violence was further heightened on July 12, when Hezbollah captured two more Israeli soldiers, pushing Israel into war in Lebanon and overshadowing the Gaza crisis.
Since then, both the Israeli and Palestinian governments have been weakened domestically and may seize the chance of a breakthrough. Mr Olmerts administration has been fiercely criticised for its handling of the Lebanon war, while sanctions have taken their toll on Hamas, which is under pressure to stand down in favour of a technocratic government in coalition with Fatah.
Best and worst case scenarios
OPTIMISTIC
Ceasefire holds; release of Gilad Shalit and exchange of Palestinian prisoners
Palestinian national unity government formed; satisfies international demands; Israel eases border crossings; aid is resumed
President Mahmoud Abbas authorised to negotiate with Israel; Hamas remains in background
US pressure for Middle East breakthrough facilitates progress toward Palestinian state in West Bank and Gaza
PESSIMISTIC
Ceasefire falters, as Palestinian rockets and Israel assassinations and raids continue
Without prisoner exchange and guaranteesof resumed aid, unity government fails
Palestinian infighting intensifies; battle between Hamas and Fatah is reinforced with overseas weapons and money
Israeli lockdown and internecine warfare boils over into third intifada
The TimesNovember 27, 2006
Boys wave the Palestinian flag in celebration after Israeli troops pulled out of Beit Lahiya, in the northern Gaza Strip, ending months of deadly clashes (Hatem Moussa/AP)
Bloody and wasted, both sides hope Gaza withdrawal may lead to peace
Stephen Farrell, Gaza City
Occupation ends after five months
Israeli troops pulled out of the Gaza Strip yesterday, raising hopes that a ceasefire announced by Palestinian militants could pave the way to a lasting truce and eventual peace talks.
All sides were cautious after five months of bloodshed that has followed the capture of the Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit by Hamas on June 25, during which 400 Palestinians have been killed. Three Israeli soldiers have also been killed, and two civilians by Palestinian rockets fired from Gaza.
The breakthrough raised the prospect of progress toward a big bang deal to secure an exchange of Corporal Shalit and Palestinian prisoners, a Palestinian national unity government and the lifting of Israeli and international sanctions, with Hamas ceding power to a technocratic coalition government.
Both sides seemed committed to calm, prompting some analysts to link the breakthrough to the arrival in the region on Wednesday of President Bush, who will meet Nouri al-Maliki, the Prime Minister of Iraq.
Israel promised restraint despite the firing of rockets by Islamic Jihad and other factions only hours after the declaration. Ehud Olmert, Israels Prime Minister, said that he had instructed the army not to respond and to give this ceasefire a chance to take full effect. He added: All of these could lead to one thing the opening of serious, real, open and direct negotiations . . . so that we can move towards a comprehensive agreement between us and the Palestinians.
Mahmoud Abbas, the moderate Palestinian President, ordered Palestinian Authority security chiefs to enforce the ceasefire, saying it was according to the higher interests of the Palestinian people . . . to reduce their suffering.
In a fanfare of publicity, Mr Abbass office announced that 13,000 security forces had been deployed to stop rocket attacks. But, on a tour of the rocket firing areas and approach roads last night, The Times saw not a single Palestinian soldier.
More significantly, the Hamas rival to Mr Abbas, Ismail Haniya, the Prime Minister, met the militant factions last night in Gaza to persuade sceptics, notably Islamic Jihad and Fatah splinter groups, to comply.
The ceasefire took place against a backdrop of threats from Hamas that it would begin a new intifada within six months if it sees no progress towards Palestinian statehood.
Meeting Egyptian mediators in Cairo, Khaled Mashaal, Hamass supreme leader, indicated that the Islamist group would permit Mr Abbas to conduct negotiations on behalf of the Palestinians, but that he had limited time.
Demanding a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza he said: We give six months to open real political horizons . . . they have to seize this opportunity. If not, Hamas will become stronger, all resistance forces will become stronger . . . and will go on with a third uprising.
Israel and the Palestinians have been locked in a stand-off since March, when Hamas came to power after winning Palestinian parliamentary elections. The Islamist group was immediately hit with an international boycott spearheaded by Israel and Washington, losing hundreds of millions of dollars in tax revenue and international aid because it refused to recognise Israel and renounce violence.
The embargo left the Palestinian Authority broke and unable to pay salaries of 160,000 civil servants since March, fuelling internal and external crises with a breakdown in law and order, and a vicious retaliatory cycle of Israeli assassination strikes and Palestinian rocket attacks.The violence escalated suddenly on June 25 when Hamas launched a surprise cross-border raid on an Israeli military post, capturing Corporal Shalit. Israel called it a terrorist kidnap, while Hamas proclaimed him a military target seized as a bargaining tool to obtain the release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.
Israel immediately launched substantial air attacks in Gaza, cripping its only power station and destroying bridges, roads and other civilian infrastructure to pressure the Palestinians into returning the soldier.
The violence was further heightened on July 12, when Hezbollah captured two more Israeli soldiers, pushing Israel into war in Lebanon and overshadowing the Gaza crisis.
Since then, both the Israeli and Palestinian governments have been weakened domestically and may seize the chance of a breakthrough. Mr Olmerts administration has been fiercely criticised for its handling of the Lebanon war, while sanctions have taken their toll on Hamas, which is under pressure to stand down in favour of a technocratic government in coalition with Fatah.
Best and worst case scenarios
OPTIMISTIC
Ceasefire holds; release of Gilad Shalit and exchange of Palestinian prisoners
Palestinian national unity government formed; satisfies international demands; Israel eases border crossings; aid is resumed
President Mahmoud Abbas authorised to negotiate with Israel; Hamas remains in background
US pressure for Middle East breakthrough facilitates progress toward Palestinian state in West Bank and Gaza
PESSIMISTIC
Ceasefire falters, as Palestinian rockets and Israel assassinations and raids continue
Without prisoner exchange and guaranteesof resumed aid, unity government fails
Palestinian infighting intensifies; battle between Hamas and Fatah is reinforced with overseas weapons and money
Israeli lockdown and internecine warfare boils over into third intifada
