Polling and 2024 US Election

[Clizby Wampuscat]

I did a state by state analysis of the final poll forecast and the actual results of the 2016 and 2020 elections. Here are some facts:

2016:
Trump over performed the polls by an average of 7.8 points in the states he won. No states did he underperform the polls.
Clinton over performed the polls by an average of 1.9 points in the states she won but had 7 states she under performed.

Trump flipped 5 states:
Florida Polls had Clinton at 0.6 points ahead, Trump won by 1.3 points
Michigan Polls had Clinton at 4.2 points ahead, Trump won by 0.3 points
NC Polls had Clinton at 0.7 points ahead, Trump won by 3.8 points
Pennsylvania Polls had Clinton at 3.7 points ahead, Trump won by 1.2 points
Wisconsin Polls had Clinton at 5.3 points ahead, Trump won by 1.0 points

Clinton flipped zero states

2020:
Trump over performed the polls by an average of 5.7 points in the states he won. No states did he underperform the polls.
Biden under performed the polls by an average of 3.0 points in the states he won but had 21 states he under performed.

Trump flipped 1 state:
NC Polls had Biden at 1.7 points ahead, Trump won by 1.4 points

Biden flipped zero states

2024:
I took the poll forecast from 9/25/2024 and compared to 2016 and 2020 and accounted for how Trump over performed the polls and was as generous to Harris as I could and here is what I found:

Trump will flip 3 states:
Michigan Polls have Harris at 2.0 points ahead, Trump will win by 2.5 points
Pennsylvania Polls have Harris at 1.0 points ahead, Trump will win by 2.5 points
Wisconsin Polls have Harris at 1.6 points ahead, Trump will win by 6.0 points

If all this holds Trump will win by 305-233 EV's. The interesting thing is Trump just needs to flip one of these three states to win.

Also it is amazing that Trump in the last two elections never under performed a poll. This has to be an issue with the polls being biased.

If you disagree with this analysis, why would the polls be accurate now and not over the last two elections?

All poll data is from the 538 election forecast.

 

[Pogo]

I did a state by state analysis of the final poll forecast and the actual results of the 2016 and 2020 elections. Here are some facts:

2016:
Trump over performed the polls by an average of 7.8 points in the states he won. No states did he underperform the polls.
Clinton over performed the polls by an average of 1.9 points in the states she won but had 7 states she under performed.

Trump flipped 5 states:
Florida Polls had Clinton at 0.6 points ahead, Trump won by 1.3 points
Michigan Polls had Clinton at 4.2 points ahead, Trump won by 0.3 points
NC Polls had Clinton at 0.7 points ahead, Trump won by 3.8 points
Pennsylvania Polls had Clinton at 3.7 points ahead, Trump won by 1.2 points
Wisconsin Polls had Clinton at 5.3 points ahead, Trump won by 1.0 points

Clinton flipped zero states

2020:
Trump over performed the polls by an average of 5.7 points in the states he won. No states did he underperform the polls.
Biden under performed the polls by an average of 3.0 points in the states he won but had 21 states he under performed.

Trump flipped 1 state:
NC Polls had Biden at 1.7 points ahead, Trump won by 1.4 points

Biden flipped zero states

2024:
I took the poll forecast from 9/25/2024 and compared to 2016 and 2020 and accounted for how Trump over performed the polls and was as generous to Harris as I could and here is what I found:

Trump will flip 3 states:
Michigan Polls have Harris at 2.0 points ahead, Trump will win by 2.5 points
Pennsylvania Polls have Harris at 1.0 points ahead, Trump will win by 2.5 points
Wisconsin Polls have Harris at 1.6 points ahead, Trump will win by 6.0 points

If all this holds Trump will win by 305-233 EV's. The interesting thing is Trump just needs to flip one of these three states to win.

Also it is amazing that Trump in the last two elections never under performed a poll. This has to be an issue with the polls being biased.

If you disagree with this analysis, why would the polls be accurate now and not over the last two elections?

All poll data is from the 538 election forecast.

Write it up as an affidavit and send it to Mike Johnson in the meantime I will consider it as much as many of your analyses.

 

[Clizby Wampuscat]

Write it up as an affidavit and send it to Mike Johnson in the meantime I will consider it as much as many of your analyses.

You can disregard my prediction but you cannot disregard the fact that trump overperformed all state polls in every state he won. How is this possible if the polls are accurate? Why do you think the polls are accurate now on trump? If trump over performs these polls like the last two elections he will win.

 

[Pogo]

You can disregard my prediction but you cannot disregard the fact that trump overperformed all state polls in every state he won. How is this possible if the polls are accurate? Why do you think the polls are accurate now on trump? If trump over performs these polls like the last two elections he will win.

Who said anybody thinks the polls are more accurate this time, we are so far inside the margin's of error that it really doesn't matter anyway.
This is really just an intellectual exercise in statistics being reported by many who don't understand them.

 

[Daemon Sophic]

Trump will flip 3 states:
Michigan Polls have Harris at 2.0 points ahead, Trump will win by 2.5 points
Pennsylvania Polls have Harris at 1.0 points ahead, Trump will win by 2.5 points
Wisconsin Polls have Harris at 1.6 points ahead, Trump will win by 6.0 points

Where did you come up with these three predictions for 2024?

Also, your conjectures don’t account for several factors; namely that Trump is undeniably a cult personality, and his cultish charisma is failing due to his age and worsening senility, his guilt for the Treason of Jan. 6th 2021, and his many convictions for corruption. Adding this to the fact that many who claimed ignorance of his tyrannical self-serving evil are now finally opening their eyes. Meanwhile, your points in 2020 as while as your crystal ball predictions for this year fail to account for the overall upswing in voter involvement/turn-out, with the tens of millions of good and sane American Citizens who are definitively heading to the polls this November for no other reason than to save the USA from this vile filth of a candidate And the madness of Project 2025.

 

[Pogo]

Where did you come up with these three predictions for 2024?

Also, your conjectures don’t account for several factors; namely that Trump is an undeniably a cult personality, and his cultish charisma is failing due to his age and worsening senility, his guilt for the Treason of Jan. 6th 2021, and his many convictions for corruption. Adding this to the fact that many who claimed ignorance of his tyrannical self-serving evil are now finally opening their eyes. Meanwhile, your points in 2020 as while as your crystal ball predictions for this year fail to account for the overall upswing in voter involvement/turn-out, with the tens of millions of good and sane American Citizens who are definitively heading to the polls this November for no other reason than to save the USA from this vile filth of a candidate And the madness of Project 2025.

I'm afraid even with your modifications we are still in chicken bone range, we don't use loose tea in this country any more.

 

[Altfish]

I did a state by state analysis of the final poll forecast and the actual results of the 2016 and 2020 elections. Here are some facts:

2016:
Trump over performed the polls by an average of 7.8 points in the states he won. No states did he underperform the polls.
Clinton over performed the polls by an average of 1.9 points in the states she won but had 7 states she under performed.

Trump flipped 5 states:
Florida Polls had Clinton at 0.6 points ahead, Trump won by 1.3 points
Michigan Polls had Clinton at 4.2 points ahead, Trump won by 0.3 points
NC Polls had Clinton at 0.7 points ahead, Trump won by 3.8 points
Pennsylvania Polls had Clinton at 3.7 points ahead, Trump won by 1.2 points
Wisconsin Polls had Clinton at 5.3 points ahead, Trump won by 1.0 points

Clinton flipped zero states

2020:
Trump over performed the polls by an average of 5.7 points in the states he won. No states did he underperform the polls.
Biden under performed the polls by an average of 3.0 points in the states he won but had 21 states he under performed.

Trump flipped 1 state:
NC Polls had Biden at 1.7 points ahead, Trump won by 1.4 points

Biden flipped zero states

2024:
I took the poll forecast from 9/25/2024 and compared to 2016 and 2020 and accounted for how Trump over performed the polls and was as generous to Harris as I could and here is what I found:

Trump will flip 3 states:
Michigan Polls have Harris at 2.0 points ahead, Trump will win by 2.5 points
Pennsylvania Polls have Harris at 1.0 points ahead, Trump will win by 2.5 points
Wisconsin Polls have Harris at 1.6 points ahead, Trump will win by 6.0 points

If all this holds Trump will win by 305-233 EV's. The interesting thing is Trump just needs to flip one of these three states to win.

Also it is amazing that Trump in the last two elections never under performed a poll. This has to be an issue with the polls being biased.

If you disagree with this analysis, why would the polls be accurate now and not over the last two elections?

All poll data is from the 538 election forecast.

You forgot the popular vote numbers ....
2016 Trump 62,984,828 Clinton 65,853,514
2020 Trump 74,223,975 Biden 81,283,501

More people voted against Trump than for him

 

[Clizby Wampuscat]

Who said anybody thinks the polls are more accurate this time, we are so far inside the margin's of error that it really doesn't matter anyway.
This is really just an intellectual exercise in statistics being reported by many who don't understand them.

You are wrong. Most polls I see have errors of less than 4%. 79% of the states Trump won over the last two elections he won by over 4% of what was polled. Anywhere from 0.7 to 15.7 points

 

[Clizby Wampuscat]

Where did you come up with these three predictions for 2024?

All I did was look at how Trump did in the last two elections and added the lowest difference in polling in each state to the current forecast from 538.

Also, your conjectures don’t account for several factors; namely that Trump is an undeniably a cult personality, and his cultish charisma is failing due to his age and worsening senility, his guilt for the Treason of Jan. 6th 2021, and his many convictions for corruption. Adding this to the fact that many who claimed ignorance of his tyrannical self-serving evil are now finally opening their eyes. Meanwhile, your points in 2020 as while as your crystal ball predictions for this year fail to account for the overall upswing in voter involvement/turn-out, with the tens of millions of good and sane American Citizens who are definitively heading to the polls this November for no other reason than to save the USA from this vile filth of a candidate And the madness of Project 2025.

I never said my prediction was true. It was an exercise in seeing how off the polls have been historically for Trump. If they are off by the same amount Trump would win today. He is polling closer in Michigan, Pennsylvania, N.C. and Wisconsin than he ever has. at this point.

 

[Pogo]

You forgot the popular vote numbers ....
2016 Trump 62,984,828 Clinton 65,853,514
2020 Trump 74,223,975 Biden 81,283,501

More people voted against Trump than for him

But THEY told him if he got 73 million votes he couldn't lose, nobody ever got 73 million votes and so forth, Just more reason to question his basic intelligence and the quality of the THEY he is listening to.

 

[Clizby Wampuscat]

You forgot the popular vote numbers ....
2016 Trump 62,984,828 Clinton 65,853,514
2020 Trump 74,223,975 Biden 81,283,501

More people voted against Trump than for him

So what. That absolutely does not matter. If you want to change the way we select a president go right ahead and do what you think you can do to change it.

 

[Altfish]

But THEY told him if he got 73 million votes he couldn't lose, nobody ever got 73 million votes and so forth, Just more reason to question his basic intelligence and the quality of the THEY he is listening to.

He misunderstood the amount of people who hate him.

 

[Pogo]

So what. That absolutely does not matter. If you want to change the way we select a president go right ahead and do what you think you can do to change it.

Say whut?

 

[Altfish]

So what. That absolutely does not matter. If you want to change the way we select a president go right ahead and do what you think you can do to change it.

I was trying to insert some balance.

 

[Argentbear]

I did a state by state analysis of the final poll forecast and the actual results of the 2016 and 2020 elections. Here are some facts:

2016:
Trump over performed the polls by an average of 7.8 points in the states he won. No states did he underperform the polls.
Clinton over performed the polls by an average of 1.9 points in the states she won but had 7 states she under performed.

Trump flipped 5 states:
Florida Polls had Clinton at 0.6 points ahead, Trump won by 1.3 points
Michigan Polls had Clinton at 4.2 points ahead, Trump won by 0.3 points
NC Polls had Clinton at 0.7 points ahead, Trump won by 3.8 points
Pennsylvania Polls had Clinton at 3.7 points ahead, Trump won by 1.2 points
Wisconsin Polls had Clinton at 5.3 points ahead, Trump won by 1.0 points

Clinton flipped zero states

2020:
Trump over performed the polls by an average of 5.7 points in the states he won. No states did he underperform the polls.
Biden under performed the polls by an average of 3.0 points in the states he won but had 21 states he under performed.

Trump flipped 1 state:
NC Polls had Biden at 1.7 points ahead, Trump won by 1.4 points

Biden flipped zero states

BIden flipped Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nebraska's second congressional district.

 

[Clizby Wampuscat]

BIden flipped Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nebraska's second congressional district.

No, what I meant by flipped was the polls projected Trump a winner of a state and Biden won that state. That never happened. Clinton and Biden only won states that they were projected to win by the polls, never a state projected to be won by Trump.

 

[Clizby Wampuscat]

Say whut?

How does the popular vote matter to this discussion?

 

[Pogo]

How does the popular vote matter to this discussion?

Ostensibly that is the method by which we give each person an equal value in electing our leader in our democracy, It is one of the parts that is direct democracy dare I say "true" democracy. It is also basically what is the problem with how we elect our leader and because it is such a small portion of the electorate that is relevant also why polls within the margin of error are not really indicative of much.

 

[Evangelicalhumanist]

You forgot the popular vote numbers ....
2016 Trump 62,984,828 Clinton 65,853,514
2020 Trump 74,223,975 Biden 81,283,501

More people voted against Trump than for him

Those numbers really just don't matter -- America does not elect presidents based on national votes, or even majority preferences. Let's say Trump is gaining ground in NY (he is, a little) -- won't make a bit of difference, because NY will go Democrat and 100% of its Electoral College votes will still go to Harris. Let's say Harris gains ground in California -- who cares? She was always going to get 100% of CAs electoral votes, and she still will.

American presidents these days are chosen by a handful of voters in a handful of states, and nobody cares in the least what the rest of the country thinks about it. Why should majorities rule, when the white, non-college graduates in Pennsylvania know better than everybody else how the whole nation should be run? But even then, it will only be a tiny handful of those voters who really decide. If Trump wins by 0.1% of the vote in PA, he will get all of PA electoral votes. If Harris wins by 10% of the vote in PA, she will still get all of PA electoral votes -- and not one more!

Talk about the tail wagging the dog!

 

[Clizby Wampuscat]

Ostensibly that is the method by which we give each person an equal value in electing our leader in our democracy, It is one of the parts that is direct democracy dare I say "true" democracy. It is also basically what is the problem with how we elect our leader and because it is such a small portion of the electorate that is relevant also why polls within the margin of error are not really indicative of much.

Ok, but that is not how we elect the president which is what I am talking about. And if only a small portion of the electorate matters, then all of the dems don’t have to vote except for battleground states.

Like I said, Trump over performed the polls over the margin of error 79% of the time. in the last two elections in the states he won.