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Polling and 2024 US Election
- Thread starter Clizby Wampuscat
- Start date
Pogo
Well-Known Member
The same for Republicans, duh, most of the states are not in play, polling errors aside which is a methodological problem.
Remember, Biden trounced Trump in 2020 by over 8 million votes, and the following have occurred SINCE then:
- Trump won't have the incumbent advantage this time.
- Trump will be running against an incumbent.
- He's orchestrated and been indicted for an insurrection and other illegal attempts to steal the election.
- He's a convicted felon now.
- He's been adjudicated liable for sexual assault.
- He's threatening to become a dictator.
- Roe has been overturned leading to a blue wave in multiple elections since.
- He's been indicted for stealing state secrets.
- His mind is turning to Jello limiting his campaign opportunities.
- He was destroyed in a debate and is now hiding from a rematch.
- He's running with an extremely unpopular VP candidate this against two people that are a beloved freight train of popularity.
Clizby Wampuscat
Well-Known Member
My point is those votes matter in other states. If one side does not have enough turnout the battleground states will not matter.
You keep mentioning polling errors, these numbers are greater than the polling errors published.
Clizby Wampuscat
Well-Known Member
He does not have to make up 8+ million votes. I am just going by the fact that the polls have been consistently low for Trump in the last two elections and the polls now are closer than they ever have been in 2016 and 2020. If the vote was today and the polls are off as much as they were in the past Trump will win by a state by state analysis. I have facts on my side you have just hypotheses based in incredulity.
You have a carefully selected set of data on your side. But the bigger reality is that there are many more variables at play than in the previous years, and you aren't accounting for them. Trump being visibly unstable could lose him support. I want there to be more videos of him ranting his incoherent nonsense.
Clizby Wampuscat
Well-Known Member
No. I have collected polling data from each state for the last two elections, compared that data with the actual outcomes and made a conclusion about this election. That conclusion is if the election were to happen today and the polling trends stay the same trump would win. That follows from objective data. I am not claiming trump will win this election in nov.
Assuming the differentials remain the same, which no one knows.
Trump is a raving lunatic, and losing ground in the polls, so I understand you have this one thing that gives you some hope that the criminal candidate will win the Electoral College, while losing the popular vote for the third time in a row.
Clizby Wampuscat
Well-Known Member
Like so many others, you seem to think that hatred for Trump is unjustified and inappropriate. Many think that praising or even condoning Trump is the immoral act. Trump is a career criminal, now a convicted felon, a sexual predator, a pathological liar, vengeful, and as anti-American as one can be. If that doesn't make one despise him, then there's something wrong with that person's values.
Regarding just writing, "More hate" without explaining why you think it is inappropriate here, the following are from skeptics and are about believers, but they apply here as well:
- "But I also have to quarrel with the very notion that a person's arguments can be dismissed because of anger. Smugly accusing someone of anger doesn't do anything to discount the content of the argument. I'd argue that people who see vile behavior in the name of religion and don't get angry are the ones who have something wrong with them." - Amanda Marcotte
- "I've wondered, for awhile, why Christians think that accusing me of being angry at their religion is actually an argument against my objections. I mean, even if I were abnormally angry ... I have absolutely no rational reason I can come up with that makes that a good enough reason to think I'm wrong ... the reasoning often seems to be that, because I'm angry, my argument is flawed and I can be dismissed." - Peter Mosley
- "Atheists aren't angry because we're selfish, or bitter, or joyless. Atheists are angry because we have compassion. Atheists are angry because we have a sense of justice. Atheists are angry because we see millions of people being terribly harmed by religion, and our hearts go out to them, and we feel motivated to do something about it. Atheists aren't angry because there's something wrong with us. Atheists are angry because there's something right with us."- Greta Christina
Clizby Wampuscat
Well-Known Member
So in a post a month ago or so I laid out why I am voting for Trump. It did not matter, most of what I got back was hate and not one person engaged in my reasoning. All people want to do is tell us how much Trump is terrible. Never engaging in any issues. Hate Trump all you want but don't hate him for made up reasons. He is not Hitler nor does he want to be a dictator etc. Do you think he is going to round people up and put them in camps and gas them?
Saying I have no compassion for people or am a racist etc. because I vote for Trump is the hate I am talking about. They are lies but they don't care. They are consumed by Trump hatred.
I didn't see that. Nor do I believe that nobody engaged your reasoning. You weren't specific what you meant by "most of what I got back was hate," but I doubt that the "hate" you described was directed at you, so I assume that you mean derogatory remarks about Trump.
I notice you disregarded the quotes about the appropriateness of expressing contempt for the contemptible. I stand by my loathing of the man. I feel good about it, and I think less of people who find him acceptable. You apparently disapprove, but that's a pretty common take on Trump and MAGA, one you'll just have to deal with when you express such opinions, because that's how it is like it or not.
Is that all you see in the posts of Trump's detractors? Did you see that in my post? I listed many reasons for my low opinion of the man, and none were "made up reasons."
Do you think I did that? I'd say that your judgment is terrible. You either can't see what Trump is, which would be a cognitive failure, or you don't mind, which would be a moral failure.
You're wrong about that. He lusts for absolute power, he has been vocal about wanting to harm perceived enemies, he openly admires dictators, he talks about terminating parts of the Constitution, he has talked about detention camps and mass deportation for immigrants which he calls vermin, he tried to retain power illegally and against the will of the electorate. If you're waiting for him to grow a little mustache and wear a swastika, that might never happen.
Not necessarily. He might prefer to hang them from dungeon walls or poison or defenestrate them. I suppose you think that Trump would find death camps immoral. I don't. You don't seem to understand how vicious, violent, angry, lawless, entitled, and selfish he is or how grandiose his aspirations are now that he's had a taste of real power.
None of us I have encountered is consumed by anything. We simply find the man highly objectionable and are willing to say so, especially to people who don't.
I get it. You don't like the antipathy for Trump, and you think it's unjustified. Apparently, you want it to die down. That's never going to happen until he has been forgotten, and even then, history books will not be kind to him. His legacy is irrevocably shot as was Nixon's for some (but far fewer) of the same proclivities.
Also, you don't like being demeaned for being a Trump supporter. That's also understandable, but that's also not going to change. You can modify your reaction, modify your posting behavior, or continue as you are, but you should expect the same kinds of reactions if that's your choice.
You don't need to approve. You don't need to agree. You don't even need to understand why. But you should understand that complaining about it is pointless. It only reflects on your inability or unwillingness to adapt to that reality.
I'm not able to put specific numbers on it, but polling and surveys like these are generally getting more accurate.
The surveying industry really struggled with the decline of residential land line phone lines. They had issues trying to 1) determine which cell numbers to call for a given survey and 2) tie a response to a specific location when it isn't fixed to an address like a landline. They've been getting better at this, so I expect they'll be better in 2024 than they were in 2020 or 2016.
Now, now, you know that was hyperbole.
Clizby Wampuscat
Well-Known Member
No, I addressed it. I don't care if you hate him but hate him for real reasons.
I agree the reasons you have are not made up but some of them are untrue.
I can say the same about you for supporting Harris.
How do you know this?
Who are these enemies and what is he going to do to them?
Who?
What parts?
He never called all immigrants vermin. He calls immigrants that commit serious crimes like murder and rape vermin.
What does this mean? So you think he is like Hitler?
Here it is. This is ridiculous, unhinged and frankly frightening. This is the baseless hatred I am talking about. The fact that you think Trump would be ok with death camps says you are not grounded in reality and are so taken over by hate that you cannot determine what is true or not.
I have no problem with that, just make your objections based on truth.
No, I don't care if you hate him. I care that you hate him for untrue reasons.
No, I don't like being lied about.
Clizby Wampuscat
Well-Known Member
We will see. Do you have a reason why Trump in the last two elections over performed the polling in every single state he won? That seems very unlikely unless there is some kind of bias. Clinton and Biden did not come close to doing that.
You implied that hating Trump was inappropriate. I gave you reasons why contempt for the contemptible is appropriate. All you've said is that "I agree the reasons you have are not made up but some of them are untrue."
I don't see a rebuttal there. I don't agree that any are untrue, but I can stipulate to your claim and mine remains valid.
I gave you my reasons. You haven't specifically rebutted any of them to me.
That was a response to, "He lusts for absolute power." How do you not know it? He did everything in his power to retain power including breaking the law and inciting stochastic violence.
Trump is a very broken man, but simple. He has just a few impulses and a handful of psychiatric diagnoses (malignant narcissism, antisocial disorder, Machiavellianism, pathological liar, and more recently, progressive dementia). His impulses are greed, seeking power and wealth, seeking adulation, and seeking revenge, and he really hates disrespect and disloyalty.
Once one knows these things about him, he's quite predictable and his actions easily explained.
Hopefully, we'll never know.
That was in response to, "he openly admires dictators."
It's really pointless trying to explain these things to you. If you don't already know them, you never will. How about I just leave you a link: https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/18/trump-praise-authoritarians-00132350
That followed, "he talks about terminating parts of the Constitution"
His words: "A Massive Fraud of this type and magnitude allows for the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution."
You can read more at A new low: Why Trump endorsed ‘terminating’ constitutional law
Why do you keep returning to Hitler? Trump is fascistic like Hitler. Trump is angry like Hitler. He's violent like Hitler. He's a racist like Hitler. He's psychopathic like Hitler.
But he probably varies in significant ways as well. Trump is much less political and much less knowledgeable than Hitler. Whereas Hitler was looking to benefit Germany, Trump is only interested in benefitting himself, so, he would likely pursue some different goals than Hitler did.
Really? That's how I feel about you, although I would change the word hate to confirmation bias. What in the world makes you think that Trump wouldn't have death camps if he could? The fact that her hasn't had the opportunity yet? He almost got Pelosi and Pence killed, and that was intended. He named them as enemies, and watched as his thugs erected a gallows for Pence and stormed the Capitol looking for Pelosi. He's a wannabe killer, and with the power and protection to kill, he no doubt would.
Of course, you probably disagree with that.
The fact that you don't know these things yet tells me that you never will - that you have a confirmation bias that filters out evidence for you. I'm not going to get past that, but I don't mind giving you short answers even knowing will have no impact on you. You and I have access to the same evidence but come to radically different conclusions regarding what it signifies, and that likely won't ever change.
If you were a ten-year old or from a part of the world where Trump is likely unknown by the majority, I would give you more thorough answers, since there would be no reason to think that you couldn't learn from them, but in this setting, brief answers and links will suffice. Virtually everybody reading my words either already agrees with them (but might find value in reading some of them anyway) or never will.
This is true, but it does not take into account what we can learn from the midterms and special elections where the Republican candidates, particually Trump endorsed maga election denying candidates, have underperformed the polls.
I am not making predictions, only pointing out that predictions may not be accurate.