Polls?

[Riders]

One says Kamala is 3 points a head alla overothers say Trump is kicking her but. Who do you believe? This one says Trump is 18 points ahead kicking Kamalas but all over woo!
Trump takes 18-point lead in election prediction model
Former President Donald Trump has extended his lead in the Daily Mail's election model, which now gives him his highest probability yet of victory over Kamala Harris in November's election. A favorable poll in the critical swing state of Michigan, putting him one-point up over his Democratic opponent, helped nudge him to an almost 18-point lead, two points more than last week.

 

[Guitar's Cry]

One says Kamala is 3 points a head alla overothers say Trump is kicking her but. Who do you believe? This one says Trump is 18 points ahead kicking Kamalas but all over woo!
Trump takes 18-point lead in election prediction model
Former President Donald Trump has extended his lead in the Daily Mail's election model, which now gives him his highest probability yet of victory over Kamala Harris in November's election. A favorable poll in the critical swing state of Michigan, putting him one-point up over his Democratic opponent, helped nudge him to an almost 18-point lead, two points more than last week.

Is Daily Mail the source? I would consider the reliably of this tabloid paper.

Daily Mail - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Brickjectivity]

I do not respond to political polls, because it enables the selling of my vote. Its best the parties do not know our positions, so that they are forced to actually take a position.

 

[Quintessence]

I do not respond to political polls, because it enables the selling of my vote. Its best the parties do not know our positions, so that they are forced to actually take a position.

I'm not sure I understand - how does responding to a survey (a poll being a type of survey) sell your vote? As part of the survey were you required to sign a legally binding obligation to vote based on your responses for monetary compensation (aka, a bribe)? Isn't that illegal?

 

[Regiomontanus]

One says Kamala is 3 points a head alla overothers say Trump is kicking her but. Who do you believe? This one says Trump is 18 points ahead kicking Kamalas but all over woo!
Trump takes 18-point lead in election prediction model
Former President Donald Trump has extended his lead in the Daily Mail's election model, which now gives him his highest probability yet of victory over Kamala Harris in November's election. A favorable poll in the critical swing state of Michigan, putting him one-point up over his Democratic opponent, helped nudge him to an almost 18-point lead, two points more than last week.

There are polls and there are polls. National ones mean almost nothing. Only the battleground state polls mean anything, and many of those are not done very well. The bottom line is, IMHO, the race is very close and voter turnout is going to decide the election.

I am holding my nose and voting for Harris.

 

[Subduction Zone]

I like this site. It has an average of all sorts of national polls on the race. Harris has had a very steady two and a half percent lead for quite some time:

National : President: general election : 2024 Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

This site is useful too. It focuses on the electoral vote. It also shows how important the battleground states are. Once again Harris has a narrow lead, but it is likely to be largely undecided until election day due to the fact that it is a close race and the undecided states will have a huge impact on the race:

2024 Presidential Election Polls: Harris vs. Trump - 270toWin

View the results of 2024 election polls.

www.270towin.com

 

[Saint Frankenstein]

Is Daily Mail the source? I would consider the reliably of this tabloid paper.

Daily Mail - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

There's wrong wrong with the Daily Mail as a news source. People just bash it because they don't like its politics, same with the Fox News bashing on here. I use it and it's usually more detailed than other sources, and they break news before the other sources. However, they are biased towards the center right in their political coverage so I would take their polls with somewhat of a grain of salt, like if it were an MSNBC poll.

"Tabloid" is a newspaper format, by the way.

 

[Brickjectivity]

I'm not sure I understand - how does responding to a survey (a poll being a type of survey) sell your vote? As part of the survey were you required to sign a legally binding obligation to vote based on your responses for monetary compensation (aka, a bribe)? Isn't that illegal?

I hear you. Let me explain my thoughts:

The mathematical package of tools we term 'Statistics' came into development in the early 1800s, after our electoral systems were devised. In my experience almost every election is 50/50. I and many others tend to dismiss this as partly a result of the winner takes all approach of our electoral system, but there is more to it. Our system was developed before Statistics became widely used.

What used to happen was that a politician seeking election could not simply do a random sample or take a poll. Instead that politician had to convince many, many people to support a position that they (first) promised to support. Supporting the position and supporting the politician were synonymous.

Now what happens is the politician pays a pollster to find out what people think in various locations, and this can be further stratefied into how much money they have, what they do, even other things like their religion, whether they smoke etc. The pollster can then determine if the politician is going to lose an election and where and how to spend money to even the odds. All candidates now do it, guaranteeing a confusing 50/50 election every time.

So how are our votes sold? Well, its that the pollster can determine what your vote is ahead of time with a certain small statistical margin of error. Therefore they can inform the candidate whether or not you can be convinced to vote otherwise and if not where they can go to get more votes. Above all it enables the politician to change their position with the wind. They can simply flip flop and say they support B instead of A. They don't have to have any integrity at all whatsoever. They need have no skin in the game, either, for they can prove (using polls) to financial monarchs that they have at least a 50% chance of winning. Everything they do is financed, and even if they lose they win financially.

Therefore pollsters sell our votes. Do not answer polls, please.

 

[Saint Frankenstein]

One says Kamala is 3 points a head alla overothers say Trump is kicking her but. Who do you believe? This one says Trump is 18 points ahead kicking Kamalas but all over woo!
Trump takes 18-point lead in election prediction model
Former President Donald Trump has extended his lead in the Daily Mail's election model, which now gives him his highest probability yet of victory over Kamala Harris in November's election. A favorable poll in the critical swing state of Michigan, putting him one-point up over his Democratic opponent, helped nudge him to an almost 18-point lead, two points more than last week.

I personally wouldn't put too much stock in these polls. They are all over the place, usually very close and are subject to change day by day.

 

[Regiomontanus]

There's wrong wrong with the Daily Mail as a news source. People just bash it because they don't like its politics, same with the Fox News bashing on here. I use it and it's usually more detailed than other sources, and they break news before the other sources. However, they are biased towards the center right in their political coverage so I would take their polls with somewhat of a grain of salt, like if it were an MSNBC poll.

"Tabloid" is a newspaper format, by the way.

Many of my liberal friends bash newsmax too, but I think they actually do a good job overall. Sure, they have a conservative bias, but whatever.

 

[Pogo]

I'm not sure I understand - how does responding to a survey (a poll being a type of survey) sell your vote? As part of the survey were you required to sign a legally binding obligation to vote based on your responses for monetary compensation (aka, a bribe)? Isn't that illegal?

The recent example of Musk offering $47 for you name on a petition where you will obviously have to provide personal information and no doubt be bombarded with flyers even beyond the unfortunate idea that because you took his $47 you owe him something rather stretches this disconnect.

 

[Guitar's Cry]

There's wrong wrong with the Daily Mail as a news source. People just bash it because they don't like its politics, same with the Fox News bashing on here. I use it and it's usually more detailed than other sources, and they break news before the other sources. However, they are biased towards the center right in their political coverage so I would take their polls with somewhat of a grain of salt, like if it were an MSNBC poll.

"Tabloid" is a newspaper format, by the way.

Tabloid in this case refers to a newspaper that reports sensationalized news.

I suggested considering the reliability partially due to that, but also, while it may have examples of pieces that could be considered leftwing or rightwing, that doesn't mean they are accurate or reliable and appear to overall skew right, suggesting bias. Like <insert other mainstream news organizations>, as you said, take it with a grain of salt.

 

[Saint Frankenstein]

Tabloid in this case refers to a newspaper that reports sensationalized news.

I suggested considering the reliability partially due to that, but also, while it may have examples of pieces that could be considered leftwing or rightwing, that doesn't mean they are accurate or reliable and appear to overall skew right, suggesting bias. Like <insert other mainstream news organizations>, as you said, take it with a grain of salt.

So like most news sources, then.

 

[Guitar's Cry]

So like most news sources, then.

For the most part. It would be useful for @Riders to post where the information is coming from. I prefer critically reading an article to outright dismissal. But where a source is vague with its own references or so outright biased separating fact from opinion is difficult, dismissing it may be necessary for one interested in getting to the truth.

 

[Heyo]

Trump takes 18-point lead in election prediction model

An election prediction model is not a poll. The models are based on poll numbers, but there are other factors that influence the models.

 

[IndigoChild5559]

One says Kamala is 3 points a head alla overothers say Trump is kicking her but. Who do you believe? This one says Trump is 18 points ahead kicking Kamalas but all over woo!
Trump takes 18-point lead in election prediction model
Former President Donald Trump has extended his lead in the Daily Mail's election model, which now gives him his highest probability yet of victory over Kamala Harris in November's election. A favorable poll in the critical swing state of Michigan, putting him one-point up over his Democratic opponent, helped nudge him to an almost 18-point lead, two points more than last week.

The devil is in the details. If a poll says Trump is 18 points ahead, you have to investigate things like, What was the precise wording of the question, how large was the sampling, was it national or one particular state, etc.

Most of the national polls I've seen have something like a 3 point difference, and since 3 points is within the margin of error, it means we have absolutely no idea who is really ahead.

Furthermore, Presidents are not elected by popular vote. The real question is how many electoral college votes they get. In most states, the outcome is clear. But there are enough swing states where they are running neck in neck that no one can really predict who is going to win.

Finally, sometimes things do happen at the last moment that change the course of an election. For example, just before people went to the polls in 2016, the director of the FBI informed Congress that the FBI had discovered new emails that might be relevant to the investigation into Clinton's use of a private email server while she was Secretary of State. That turned the election.

Long story short, this race is way too close for anyone to call.

 

[Riders]

There are polls and there are polls. National ones mean almost nothing. Only the battleground state polls mean anything, and many of those are not done very well. The bottom line is, IMHO, the race is very close and voter turnout is going to decide the election.

I am holding my nose and voting for Harris.

If I could vote me too.