Prediction: Deep fakes and a post truth society

[an anarchist]

Prediction: in the near future, deep fakes will be so advanced that it will be impossible to tell if a video is faked or real. We will not be able to trust what we see on our screens as being real. We will live in a post truth society.

 

[Secret Chief]

Prediction: in the near future, deep fakes will be so advanced that it will be impossible to tell if a video is faked or real. We will not be able to trust what we see on our screens as being real. We will live in a post truth society.

Admit it, you're a bot. I am.

 

[idea]

Prediction: in the near future, deep fakes will be so advanced that it will be impossible to tell if a video is faked or real. We will not be able to trust what we see on our screens as being real. We will live in a post truth society.

It has always been impossible to know any truth. Books are incomplete, eye-witness confused, tools imperfect.

 

[idea]

Admit it, you're a bot. I am.

Who is your creator? What data have you learned from?

 

[Secret Chief]

Who is your creator? What data have you learned from?

Probably someone in Russia. I don't know the answer to the second question, try asking Alexa.

 

[Kenny]

Prediction: in the near future, deep fakes will be so advanced that it will be impossible to tell if a video is faked or real. We will not be able to trust what we see on our screens as being real. We will live in a post truth society.

My wife and I were just talking about that potential. Like in Mission Impossible, when they peel off a mask, with advance technology, capacity to imitate voices, what will be true on the media?

 

[idea]

Probably someone in Russia. I don't know the answer to the second question, try asking Alexa.

Garry Kimovich Kasparov? 1997. Chess grandmaster from Russia beat by deep blue. I remember it - the day computers surpassed us. To fear? Or... Carpe Diem - from games of chess to games of atoms. To cure corona, to cure cancer, to fight wars... look on bright side, could be a very good future for us.

 

[Subduction Zone]

Deep fakes are everywhere. In commercial:

Bruce licensed his face in the above commercial.

And though that commercial makes it seem rather difficult there are apps that one can buy to make one's own deep fakes:

Deepswap - best online faceswap tool

You have to see their ten second deep fake.

Early versions often tend to be crude, but they are already good enough to fool many people.

 

[Twilight Hue]

Prediction: in the near future, deep fakes will be so advanced that it will be impossible to tell if a video is faked or real. We will not be able to trust what we see on our screens as being real. We will live in a post truth society.

It is a concern. I definitely think it's being used in media past it's origins in porn.

 

[exchemist]

Prediction: in the near future, deep fakes will be so advanced that it will be impossible to tell if a video is faked or real. We will not be able to trust what we see on our screens as being real. We will live in a post truth society.

I am not so pessimistic. Historians have always been aware that all accounts of events may have a bias and can be more or less unreliable in isolation. That's why corroboration from multiple sources is so important. The same is true today and will be true in future.

And I'm not sure why you rely on video. I make a point of not relying on video, for anything serious. The camera always lies, basically.

The printed word, from more than one trusted source, will continue to be definitive, in my opinion.

 

[Nimos]

Prediction: in the near future, deep fakes will be so advanced that it will be impossible to tell if a video is faked or real. We will not be able to trust what we see on our screens as being real. We will live in a post truth society.

Think about how that could affect the entertainment industry.

The movie studios could make deep fake actors and just hire whoever, is good at acting at a low cost and just deep fake some 3d super attractive person on top. It would be like real life cartoons

This is from Korea:

Many of the deepfake examples around right now are simply fun parodies or experiments designed to test the limits of deep learning technology. However, perhaps the biggest indication that deepfakes could become part of everyday mainstream media came late last year when the Korean television channel MBN presented viewers with a deepfake of its own news anchor Kim Joo-Ha.

The channel warned viewers in advance that the newsreader would be faked, and Kim Joo-Ha still has her job. However, MBN said it planned to continue using the deepfake for some breaking news reports, and the company behind the deepfake, South Korea's DeepBrain AI(opens in new tab) (formerly known as Moneybrain), has said that it's looking for media buyers in China and the US, leading some to fear that newsreaders may become obsolete.

The real one I think

 

[The Hammer]

Prediction: in the near future, deep fakes will be so advanced that it will be impossible to tell if a video is faked or real. We will not be able to trust what we see on our screens as being real. We will live in a post truth society.

I was just talking about this exact scenario with my wife yesterday.

We're moving in quite the scary direction.

 

[The Hammer]

Think about how that could affect the entertainment industry.

The movie studios could make deep fake actors and just hire whoever, is good at acting at a low cost and just deep fake some 3d super attractive person on top. It would be like real life cartoons

This is from Korea:

Many of the deepfake examples around right now are simply fun parodies or experiments designed to test the limits of deep learning technology. However, perhaps the biggest indication that deepfakes could become part of everyday mainstream media came late last year when the Korean television channel MBN presented viewers with a deepfake of its own news anchor Kim Joo-Ha.

The channel warned viewers in advance that the newsreader would be faked, and Kim Joo-Ha still has her job. However, MBN said it planned to continue using the deepfake for some breaking news reports, and the company behind the deepfake, South Korea's DeepBrain AI(opens in new tab) (formerly known as Moneybrain), has said that it's looking for media buyers in China and the US, leading some to fear that newsreaders may become obsolete.

The real one I think

Lionsgate 'Fall' Used Deepfake-Style Tech to Change 30-Plus F-Bombs - Variety

This is what set off my response to my wife about how deepfakes will become an increasing problem.

 

[Evangelicalhumanist]

We are presented with data and opinions all the time that the presenter hopes, for whatever reason, that we will believe. We get it in commercials for things we absolutely MUST have (really, must we?), or will be shunned for lacking (think deodorant commercials). We are assailed by people selling their religions, usually kitty-corner from somebody downtown selling another religion and thank goodness the traffic keeps them apart.

How do you protect yourself from this? By being a "practical skeptic." Consider the following advice from The Skeptical Inquirer:

You can’t be skeptical all the time about everything; it requires too much time and excessive resources. Strive to be a practical skeptic and invest your energies into questioning claims and assumptions you deem most important.
Consider an alternative explanation for something you have always believed. Try to look at it from the other side—think of the opposite claim or argument. Gather all available data, and try to argue against your own belief.

Recognize the influence of expectancy effects and how they influence what we do and don’t see (magicians take full advantage of this expectation). Expectancy effects have been shown in a great range of areas, influencing physiological, behavioral, and cognitive outcomes.

Educate yourself on the rules of logic (deductive and inductive), the principles of research, statistics used in research, and reliability and validity concerns regarding scientific evidence. Recognize converging evidence (evidence from various methods and from various researchers converge at a point) as the top level of evidence.

Realize there are varying degrees of certainty, but no absolute certainty. Beliefs are tentative; they are subject to change, and they change according to the level of evidence supporting them.

Don’t fall prey to bias blind spot, when you recognize that others are biased but fail to recognize your own biases. There is a huge body of research indicating humans are susceptible to a range of conscious and unconscious biases (which reflect bias without awareness of the bias).​

 

[Polymath257]

Prediction: in the near future, deep fakes will be so advanced that it will be impossible to tell if a video is faked or real. We will not be able to trust what we see on our screens as being real. We will live in a post truth society.

The thing about the truth is that it will eventually raise its head and have to be accounted for. It cannot be hidden forever.

So, yes, deep fakes will fool many people. But, as was said, you can't fool all of the people all of the time.

 

[lewisnotmiller]

Prediction: in the near future, deep fakes will be so advanced that it will be impossible to tell if a video is faked or real. We will not be able to trust what we see on our screens as being real. We will live in a post truth society.

I don't like the term 'post-truth' for a variety of reasons. But I completely agree that technology is fast reaching the point where the appearance of something (eg. A news source) is a useless way of judging it's veracity.

The biggest issue related to that is just how many people now consume news via either aggregation services or other non-primary sources.

A well-faked piece of news in the right place will get aggregated, and will get passed on by Facebook, by podcasts, by lots of secondary sources.

And you then have people saying 'it MUST be true...my newsfeed is blowing up'.

Find trustworthy sources you generally don't align yourself to. It's increasingly important.

 

[lewisnotmiller]

The thing about the truth is that it will eventually raise its head and have to be accounted for. It cannot be hidden forever.

So, yes, deep fakes will fool many people. But, as was said, you can't fool all of the people all of the time.

You don't need to fool all of the people, all of the time, though...

 

[Evangelicalhumanist]

I don't like the term 'post-truth' for a variety of reasons. But I completely agree that technology is fast reaching the point where the appearance of something (eg. A news source) is a useless way of judging it's veracity.

The biggest issue related to that is just how many people now consume news via either aggregation services or other non-primary sources.

A well-faked piece of news in the right place will get aggregated, and will get passed on by Facebook, by podcasts, by lots of secondary sources.

And you then have people saying 'it MUST be true...my newsfeed is blowing up'.

Find trustworthy sources you generally don't align yourself to. It's increasingly important.

I don't think that's all quite accurate. There are news sources and there are news sources, after all. And with experience, we come to learn which ones tend to provide real information, backed up by carefully vetted sources. Not perfect, but it's something. I've been reading papers all my 74 years, and I can tell you which journalists I trust and which I don't.

There are reliable sources and unreliable sources -- and you can work out which is which:

1. Reliable sources have links to verifiable, current evidence, unreliable sources do not.
2. Reliable sources use language that is clear of bias, unreliable sources do not.
3. Reliable sources mention the author’s name and information, unreliable sources do not.
4. Reliable sources have clear motives, unreliable sources do not, or have discernable hidden motives.
5. Reliable sources are written with professionalism, unreliable sources are not. They are reviewed before they are published, so if you see grammar and spelling errors, bet against reliability.

 

[Nimos]

Lionsgate 'Fall' Used Deepfake-Style Tech to Change 30-Plus F-Bombs - Variety

This is what set off my response to my wife about how deepfakes will become an increasing problem.

It will, there are going to be a lot of identity thefts and misuses.

What we are seeing now is just the beginning, once the technology gets more evolved and more start to play around with it and develop it. It is going to end like all other technologies, it will just keep getting better and easier to use.

If you haven't tried it, you try Wombo which you can get for your phone, where you can make yourself or anyone sing simply by taking a picture of their face and it is quite fun

 

[Stevicus]

Admit it, you're a bot. I am.

This unit must survive