Predictions for the 2016 Election

[Nous]

One might think that at this point the idea that Trump will win the necessary 270 electoral votes and become President is a sort of joke. However, at Trump rallies some supporters are predicting not just a win but a “landslide”: http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-trump-supporters-20161015-snap-story.html

Interestingly a while back I came across an incredible letter to the editor of the Des Moines Register that might offer some insight into thought processes of Trump supporters. The writer claimed that the polls are “most likely way off the mark of accuracy,” a conclusion he arrived at as a result of his own “public survey” in which he wore a “Trump for President” T-shirt several times a week and “all” of the compliments he received from stranger were spoken in a “deliberate whisper”: http://www.desmoinesregister.com/st...p-fans-could-skewing-election-polls/88526246/ Of course perhaps the writer didn't consider that the whispering might have been because they were all from the local chapter of the state sex-offender registry, hoping for a pardon from Trump.

In any case, this letter actually gives me hope that the problems Americans have in selecting the President can probably be cured by mandatory education even beyond the third grade.

So here I ask for your predictions on who will win the election for President. You are welcomed to change your prediction as circumstances change.

I predict that Clinton will win. I further predict that she will win by a larger margin in the popular vote than Obama had over Romney in 2012 (51% to 47%).

 

[Servant_of_the_One1]

I predict Trump will win. The Americans had enough of illegal immigration(i gues they themselves were legal immigrants when they massacred millions of native americans).

 

[Nous]

I predict Trump will win.

How do you account for the results of the current polls, such as those noted at Real Clear Politics? The averaged national polls show Clinton with a lead of 5.5 points: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

 

[Nous]

Even if the populace wanted Trump, I think it's more than safe to say the electors don't.

That has also occurred to me. And, in fact, in 20-something states, faithless voting by an elector is not illegal.

 

[Laika]

One might think that at this point the idea that Trump will win the necessary 270 electoral votes and become President is a sort of joke. However, at Trump rallies some supporters are predicting not just a win but a “landslide”: http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-trump-supporters-20161015-snap-story.html

Interestingly a while back I came across an incredible letter to the editor of the Des Moines Register that might offer some insight into thought processes of Trump supporters. The writer claimed that the polls are “most likely way off the mark of accuracy,” a conclusion he arrived at as a result of his own “public survey” in which he wore a “Trump for President” T-shirt several times a week and “all” of the compliments he received from stranger were spoken in a “deliberate whisper”: http://www.desmoinesregister.com/st...p-fans-could-skewing-election-polls/88526246/ Of course perhaps the writer didn't consider that the whispering might have been because they were all from the local chapter of the state sex-offender registry, hoping for a pardon from Trump.

In any case, this letter actually gives me hope that the problems Americans have in selecting the President can probably be cured by mandatory education even beyond the third grade.

So here I ask for your predictions on who will win the election for President. You are welcomed to change your prediction as circumstances change.

I predict that Clinton will win. I further predict that she will win by a larger margin in the popular vote than Obama had over Romney in 2012 (51% to 47%).

I predict that Gary Johnson will get over 5% of the vote for the Libertarian Party in 2016 and will then be entitled to public funding for an election campign in 2020. Polling has been pretty consistent for that to actually happen.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...rump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

 

[Lighthouse]

How do you account for the results of the current polls, such as those noted at Real Clear Politics? The averaged national polls show Clinton with a lead of 5.5 points: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

I account for them with logic and common sense. A few thousand max on landline calls doesn't equate to the millions who will be voting. One can have confidence in these polls, but they aren't the real deal. I believe personally that this is one of the most unpredictable elections.

 

[tytlyf]

Hillary will win in a historic landslide.

 

[columbus]

Even if the populace wanted Trump, I think it's more than safe to say the electors don't.

What makes you say this?
Do you understand how things work here? The electors in one state could steal the election in their own state. But Florida electors can't make Californian electors do anything.

Plenty of potential electors are solidly behind Trump. If their state goes Trump they will have every reason to point out voting irregularities if there are any that don't go his way.

It takes state level fraud to throw a presidential election. This is not impossible, it happened in 2000. But the current parties are aware of them and will be prepared.
I hope.
Tom

 

[columbus]

Because the electors in many states can vote for whomever they want.

The parties don't pick people off the street you know.
It is possible that ShivaFan might not vote for Trump or St Frank for Clinton. But the sun might not come up tomorrow. You can't worry about everything.
Tom

 

[columbus]

I don't see many traditional republicans cozying up to Trump.

Not so many traditional republicans. But lots of the most hardcore republicans will.
Tom

 

[Augustus]

How do you account for the results of the current polls, such as those noted at Real Clear Politics? The averaged national polls show Clinton with a lead of 5.5 points: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Well within the margin of error. Recent polls are all over the place ranging from Clinton by 11 to Trump by 2 (which supports the heuristic of doubling the given margin of error to get the 'true' margin of error.)

Clinton is favourite, but far from a shoe in.

Given the unpredictability of this race, who knows what will happen before the election? Who knows if there are significant numbers of people who will vote Trump but won't admit it publicly to pollsters? Who knows about the turnout? Who knows about how many will vote for 3rd party candidates?

There is a reasonable possibility of a Clinton landslide. There is also a reasonable possibility of a Trump win.

So I predict one of the 2 main candidates will become President.

Trump at 5-1 is a better value bet than Clinton at 2/11 though imo (better value, not more likely to win)

 

[Vinayaka]

Is there some sort of election going on down south?

 

[Yerda]

Two weeks ago I thought Trump had it in the bag. Now I think it's Clinton's to lose. I think the polls will be more useful going in to the week of the vote.

I predict loads more faeces will be flung around and I also predict that damaging leaks will hit Clinton more than Trump on the grounds that Trump is better at dealing with it and also the low-brewing sexism that Clinton attracts. If I were Trump I'd definitely appeal to the white male status anxiety that is clearly prevalent throughout the US electorate

 

[bobhikes]

Hillary wins in a landslide, Two states Utah and New Mexico choose an independent. Donald gets the lowest electoral votes in modern history.

 

[Acim]

Trump wins the people votes, electorate chooses Clinton.

 

[columbus]

Trump wins the people votes, electorate chooses Clinton.

Gore won the people vote, electorate chose Bush. Then Bush blew up the foreign and domestic policy.
But we survived.
Oh well.
Tom

 

[idav]

I predict Clinton will get the popular vote and Trump will still say it was rigged and a global conspiracy against him, for him trying to bring down a corrupt system. I also predict I will still laugh at the conspiracy stories.

 

[sun rise]

The two web sites I'm paying attention to are these:
http://election.princeton.edu/ and http://fivethirtyeight.com/politics/
How they interpret the polls differs, of course, but basically both are saying Hillary will win and the Democrats will control the Senate. Due to Republican vote rigging (aka they gerrymandered much more than Democrats in 2010, they'll probably retain the House).

We'll see shortly but I agree with their joint conclusion.

 

[Twilight Hue]

Even if the populace wanted Trump, I think it's more than safe to say the electors don't.

That's why it's rigged. No other election has electors.

 

[idav]

That's why it's rigged. No other election has electors.

It isn't rigged, that's trumps argument for being behind in the polls. How is Hillary leading the polls mean it's rigged. Trump wont get the popular vote the way it looks which would make the electoral college inconsequential. Though I'm sure Trump would be happy to take big points from Texas but if Hillary gets the points it's rigged.