As disaster movies go, it was one of the better done ones. I enjoyed the acting, and confess I'm a weather freak anyway, so just watching the special effects is somewhat amusing.
On the climatological front, the people behind the movie admit that in order to make an interesting movie, they had to be scientifically inaccurate on quite a few fronts, and really shrink the time frames.
The movie misses the warm up phase and goes right to the jugular of one speculation about the effects of global warming -- the shut down of the north Atlantic pump that runs the ocean currents, which might trigger an ice age.
For me, that's the biggest scientific flaw -- the movie doesn't examine the effects that we're for sure feeling and going to increasingly feel for a while now.
NOAA has a news release related to today's ICPP statement from the Paris Conference:
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2787.htm
NOAA's website also has some interesting info on models they're using. Of course, models have their problems, especially in a subject with as many variables as climatology.
If you get something off a bit, the effects can be quite wide-ranging. Still, models generally agree that something very very different will happen, and in a way that we aren't going to like much. That is enough information to justify taking immediate action.
What NOAA's models show are everywhere will be disrupted, though some places more than others. Europe can look forward to more deathly heat waves, the Indian subcontinent may become so dry that agriculture can't feed the populace there, coastal areas will be the most affected should the oceans continue their rise. I wouldn't suggest buying real estate in New Orleans or the Netherlands. I have a friend living on Vanuatu, and the locals tell her they've already lost much of their island. There's nothing theoretical about global warming for island peoples. They're watching their countries disappear and are not amused.
I find some of the most interesting info there is not so much on local weather changes, but on epidemiology. A few degrees warmer in the winter in some areas (like Taiwan) means the spread of dengue fever. We can look forward to malaria becoming a more common disease in Europe and the U.S.
Here on my local front, in the past 10 years I've watched a very noticable shift in local weather patterns. As a Master Gardener, I keep track of bug infestation problems from one year to the next, the sorts of weeds that are common at times, and so forth.
Here's what's changed:
- 10 years ago, we never recommended St. Augustine grass in the metro Atlanta area. Now we recommend it for anywhere from Dunwoody and parts south.
- Weeds more common to middle Georgia are not common here in north Georgia
- Pest insect populations have shifted toward what I'd expect in Middle Georgia and the timing of infestations has shifted to an earlier time, from a couple of weeks to a month.
- In town there are 2 species of palm trees we will now recommend to landscapers and homeowners, provided the palms are located in proper local microclimates (not at the bottom of a hill and yes to protected from north winds by evergreen trees or shrubs or fences. 10 years ago, we would've recommended that no homeowner have a palm, unless it was potted and protected in winter.
By the way, it might interest you to know that plant hardiness zone were just changed last year to take into account the changes in weather patterns in the past 10 years.
Here's just one article on the subject:
http://arborday.org/media/zonechanges2006.cfm
The new map reflects that many areas have become warmer since 1990 when the last USDA hardiness zone map was published. Significant portions of many states have shifted at least one full hardiness zone. Much of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, for example, have shifted from Zone 5 to a warmer Zone 6. Some areas around the country have even warmed two full zones.
I used to be in Zone 7. Now I'm in Zone 8. My local climate is now what used to be in Middle Georgia. I've been slowly retooling my perennials for the past few years, as I have some options not previously available, and am losing plants that don't take the heat well.
I especially recommend looking at maps and animation of the changes on the Arbor Day site.
The changes were made based on NOAA date, fyi.
Sorry for the core dump, but really, this is a rather large subject with involvement from so many areas of science.
