I would like to address another science casino on the Las Vegas Strip of Science, where the House always wins, by using the same math. This is called climate change and global warming. Like the weatherman, how many global warming and climate change predictions have failed? Why is there no accountability?
In contrast to rational science; if you could somehow do even one repeatable experiment, that could disprove Einstein's relativity, it would be open season for experimental change and allowance for all new theory. Yet with climate change, which uses casino math, bad model predictions do not change the direction of the ship, that cannot lose. Why is that still called science, and not a rigged game?
The main variable of the Earth's weather is water; oceans, atmosphere and subterranean. Water is also the foundation of life and integrates life by touching everything in life. Say we apply the second law to the earth; the entropy of the earth has to increase. Shouldn't the 2nd law account for climate change; earth complexity has to increase. The question is what is the main integrating variable?
The moderate temperature of the earth is due to the surface water, not CO2. If there was no surface water, the barren earth would be a very toasty 153 F. Now the average temperate of the earth; due to water, is about 59F. Why is the water not the main variable for the science casino that cannot lose? They're worried about 1.5C, while water moderates about 100F and can do more. The House that cannot lose estimates for warming all tend to be too high, because they fail to give water credit due. They do not have to, if the house has to win.
Say we had no water on the earth. The atmosphere would be based on the partial pressures of the current dominant gases like N2, O2 and also traces of other gases like CO2 and CH4, etc. Once we add water, we add a multitasking wild card. All the other gases stay, gases from 59F to 153F. Water, can become a gas, liquid or solid within the same range, while all other gases need to stay, gases; equator to poles. Water has three separate contributions to weather and climate, based on how each phase interacts with solar and ambient heat. Water is far more complex and not a one trick pony, like the trace gases that cannot lose; by default.
If we start with liquid water, and evaporate it, into water vapor; solar heating, there is an expansion of 1600 times. One meter3 of liquid water will become 1600m3 of water vapor. This expansion into a gas exerts a partial pressure, into the atmosphere of the permanent gases. This is how high pressure systems often form; evaporated water vapor adds pressure. While clouds, which are due to water vapor attracting via hydrogen bonding, can keep this higher pressure contained; equilibrium between free and contained water. The high pressure does not have to dissipate very fast, as would occur with all the other gases. This containment time delay has its own wild cards; compacts the rain fall, instead of just fog and mist.
Say this high pressure system started to get cooler, so water began to condense; rain cloud. We will get the opposite, or a 1600 times reduction in volume. This reduces the partial pressure in the local atmosphere and pulls a vacuum. We call this a low pressure system. The difference in pressure between low and high systems, can move air for breezes and wind between lingering pressure zones.
Without water, the high and low pressure systems of the rest of the permanent gases, would not be the same thing. They would be mostly due to temperature differences; cold and hot, with colder denser. Since they lack the hydrogen bonding of the wild card of water, that allows a wide range of cloud and weather containment effects, within low and high pressure systems, the pressure gradients would dissipate sooner. If we apply the second law; the base atmospheric gases are too simple to be the primary outlet for entropy increase. They will get maximized too easy and stop being a good outlet. Both water and permanent gas entropy occur together, but the water is the main zone of entropic climate change; due to the wide variety possible.
The house that cannot lose, permanent gas centric assumptions, are good for grade school children. It is easier to chew. But adults in science, should put their efforts into the water angle, since this is where all the entropic variety for climate change is expressed; 2nd law and water's many tools and expressions.
The above over view does not include subterranean and inner earth water, which has exotic properties for inner earth entropy increases. Water allows us to interface the inner earth, with the, sun and surface, to add extra secondary effects, that reflects more than just climate change; total earth change. I predicted water would be found in the core of the earth, based on my theory. I was proven correct, years later. The deep ocean and crust/mantle interface is a good place to begin to make full earth change connections; water is continuous.