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The Science of Global Warming : Explained

sayak83

Veteran Member
Staff member
Premium Member
I have been wanting to do a complete thread on the science of global warming for a long time. Starting it today and hope to continue it over time. I will discuss the foundations of the relevant science and the evidence collected that backs up the current conclusions.

Some ground rules:-
1) Questions are welcome but need to pertain to the post I have actually made. I will not answer questions about topics that I am yet to cover. Others are free to do so.
2) Philosophical questions about the validity of the scientific process etc. will not be answered by me.
3) Others can contribute as they see fit. :)

The basic science behind man-made global warming is that of the atmospheric greenhouse effect and how it is increasing due to emissions from human activity. The basic concept of the greenhouse effect has been known for several centuries now. It was Fourier in 1824 who first noted how atmospheric gases trap heat making earth hotter than usual. To quote Fourier,

"The earth receives the rays of the Sun, which penetrate its mass, and are converted into non-luminous heat; it likewise possesses an internal heat with which it was created, and which is continually dissipated at the surface; and lastly the earth receives rays of light and heat from innumerable stars, in the midst of which is placed the solar system. These are the three general causes which determine the temperature of the earth.
The transparency of the waters appears to concur with that of the air in augmenting the degree of heat already acquired, because luminous heat flowing in, penetrates, with little difficulty, the
interior of the mass, and non-luminous heat has more difficulty in finding its way out in a contrary direction. "

While Fourier made this (correct) observation, the fact that only some of the gases act as resistances to heat as it tries to escape earth would be discovered a bit later. In a series of papers published in 1860, John Tyndall experimented on the heat-absorbing capacity of various gases. Tyndall reported on how he was able to measure the absorption of radiant heat by oxygen, nitrogen, hydrogen, water vapor, carbon dioxide, ozone, and even the fragrances of flowers. The first three had no capacity to absorb energy, but all of the latter did. He calculated that a single molecule of water vapor had a capacity to absorb 16,000 times as much radiant energy as nitrogen or oxygen molecules. He realized that water vapor was critical to the regulation of the surface temperature of the Earth. He argued that more than 10 % of the radiation from the soil is stopped by vapor within ten feet of the surface. Thus he discovered the importance of water vapour and CO2 and ozone in the greenhouse effect discussed by Fourier 30 years before him.

Still, however, it was not known how the net heat coming to earth and going out of earth can be calculated and how that heat budget can be connected to earth's surface temperature. It was Gustav Kirchhoff who made the crucial breakthrough of the "blackbody radiation relations" that paved the way towards calculating this. A black body is a hypothetical object that absorbs all the electromagnetic radiation incident upon it. To maintain a specific constant temperature the black body re-radiates as much energy as it receives back into space. It is both a perfect absorber of energy and a perfect emitter of energy. However, the wavelength at which the blackbody emits radiation is different from the wavelength of the incoming radiation that it absorbs. Kirchhoff found that the emission wavelengths of the blackbody depends on the temperature of the blackbody. Thus knowing the temperature, one can predict the emission wavelengths for the blackbody (and vice-versa). The blackbody radiation is the basis of infrared thermometer which can determine the temperature of an emitting surface by detecting the infra-red radiation being emitted by it.
Infrared thermometer - Wikipedia

But apart from (very useful) engineering applications, the blackbody relations also helped in finding the mean temperature of the sun and the earth (as well as other planets) by measuring the frequency of emitted radiation from their surfaces and adding a correction factor that takes into account that these are not perfect blackbodies and do reflect part of the radiation. The Sun, however, is a perfect blackbody.

The wavelength (lambda_max) at which maximum emission occurs is related to the body's temperature as follows:-

upload_2019-9-1_15-3-32.png

where b is a constant (b=10 micrometer).

Also, the total radiative energy R emitted by the black body at temperature T is given by

upload_2019-9-1_15-5-54.png


upload_2019-9-1_15-6-26.png
is a constant as well. Temperature T is measured in Kelvins.

From these relations, we can measure the temperature of the sun as well as earth, including the wavelengths at which they emit radiation. The figure below shows the emitted radiation (y axis) vs wavelength (x axis) curves for bodies having different surface temperature

upload_2019-9-1_15-12-55.png



These ideas, all discovered in the 19th century, and much much before climate change became known...would prove crucial in the science of global warming that will develop in the 20th century atmospheric physics.


TO BE CONTINUED......
 

Mindmaster

Well-Known Member
Premium Member
Still waiting for them to explain how the second law of thermodynamics can be violated, but I'm not holding my breath.

Second law of thermodynamics - Wikipedia

Essentially, the short of it is heat always moves away from the Earth into cold space. The warmer the Earth becomes the quicker this happens. It means global warming is largely governed by solar not earthly causes due to the fact that anything that could possibly happen on the Earth could only cause changes in percentile ranges. (Theoretically, they'd be largely irrelevant. Science even 'inadvertently' backs this notion with its data -- average temperature changes are decimal points of a degree, not an amount a person could even feel...) The solar weather, however, is nothing we can control or do anything about -- it's most of the energizing force for these changes.
 

Kangaroo Feathers

Yea, it is written in the Book of Cyril...
Still waiting for them to explain how the second law of thermodynamics can be violated, but I'm not holding my breath.

Second law of thermodynamics - Wikipedia

Essentially, the short of it is heat always moves away from the Earth into cold space. The warmer the Earth becomes the quicker this happens. It means global warming is largely governed by solar not earthly causes due to the fact that anything that could possibly happen on the Earth could only cause changes in percentile ranges. (Theoretically, they'd be largely irrelevant. Science even 'inadvertently' backs this notion with its data -- average temperature changes are decimal points of a degree, not an amount a person could even feel...) The solar weather, however, is nothing we can control or do anything about -- it's most of the energizing force for these changes.
The concept of "insulation" is new to you, I see. Thermal insulation - Wikipedia
 

shunyadragon

shunyadragon
Premium Member
Still waiting for them to explain how the second law of thermodynamics can be violated, but I'm not holding my breath.

Second law of thermodynamics - Wikipedia

Essentially, the short of it is heat always moves away from the Earth into cold space. The warmer the Earth becomes the quicker this happens. It means global warming is largely governed by solar not earthly causes due to the fact that anything that could possibly happen on the Earth could only cause changes in percentile ranges. (Theoretically, they'd be largely irrelevant. Science even 'inadvertently' backs this notion with its data -- average temperature changes are decimal points of a degree, not an amount a person could even feel...) The solar weather, however, is nothing we can control or do anything about -- it's most of the energizing force for these changes.

Incomplete as far as what is known concerning the thermodynamic relationship between the heat source, the sun, and the earth. particularly the composition of the atmosphere. Earthly sources influence the composition of the atmosphere and the degree of insulation that allows the heat to escape to space. The higher the content of CO2 the greater the insulation capability of the atmosphere, and as a result global warming.

Of course, to a degree humans may not directly 'feel' the increase in the temperature, particularly in the tropics and the poles, but in fact they do in parts of the world where global warming is most apparent. Yes, it is incremental in very small degrees over time. Sort of the fate of the frog in the boiling pot as the temperature very slowly increases.
 
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exchemist

Veteran Member
Still waiting for them to explain how the second law of thermodynamics can be violated, but I'm not holding my breath.

Second law of thermodynamics - Wikipedia

Essentially, the short of it is heat always moves away from the Earth into cold space. The warmer the Earth becomes the quicker this happens. It means global warming is largely governed by solar not earthly causes due to the fact that anything that could possibly happen on the Earth could only cause changes in percentile ranges. (Theoretically, they'd be largely irrelevant. Science even 'inadvertently' backs this notion with its data -- average temperature changes are decimal points of a degree, not an amount a person could even feel...) The solar weather, however, is nothing we can control or do anything about -- it's most of the energizing force for these changes.
For that, you will need to wait until @sayak83 gets onto how the rate of radiation from the Earth is affected by absorption of some of it in the atmosphere.

Watch this space ;).
 

Mindmaster

Well-Known Member
Premium Member
The concept of "insulation" is new to you, I see. Thermal insulation - Wikipedia

I understand it, but also understand that the largest insulator is water vapor. So, again, minute additions by human activities really amount to nothing. And, even with that insulation the heat still eventually moves to space. Nothing in my initial statement is refuted... :D (All the "greenhouse gas" on the planet that isn't H2O is less than 10% of the total. Fairly insignificant. This means we'd have to increase our production of these gasses exponentially for it to matter.)
 

Mindmaster

Well-Known Member
Premium Member
You need to learn a bit more about the 2nd law. Space is not an 'object'.

The Earth only maintains its temperature through it's ability to trap the heat. If it went up 10 degrees globally (not that I think that can easily happen) we'd still all be here, we'd just be buying more power for air conditioning. However, even with this "greenhouse gas layer" (which is actually helpful) it'd vent right to space -- it still does vent to space, just at equilibrium with what it is gaining for the most part.
 

Subduction Zone

Veteran Member
Still waiting for them to explain how the second law of thermodynamics can be violated, but I'm not holding my breath.

Second law of thermodynamics - Wikipedia

Essentially, the short of it is heat always moves away from the Earth into cold space. The warmer the Earth becomes the quicker this happens. It means global warming is largely governed by solar not earthly causes due to the fact that anything that could possibly happen on the Earth could only cause changes in percentile ranges. (Theoretically, they'd be largely irrelevant. Science even 'inadvertently' backs this notion with its data -- average temperature changes are decimal points of a degree, not an amount a person could even feel...) The solar weather, however, is nothing we can control or do anything about -- it's most of the energizing force for these changes.

There needs to be a new internet debate law like Godwin's Law. Those who appeal to the Second Law of Thermodynamics almost never understand it.

Heat still is moving out into space. Warming occurs because heat is moving out at a lower rate. What you are disputing now is the Greenhouse Effect and that has been understood for over 200 years and is not controversial in the least. In fact if you understood the OP and applied the Stefan Boltzmann Law to the Earth without any Greenhouse Effect you would find that it predicts that the Earth should be much cooler than it is. As the OP said this was discovered of two years ago. No conspiracy about oil or coal consumption existed then. If you would like I could find a video that explains this better than I could.
 

Subduction Zone

Veteran Member
I understand it, but also understand that the largest insulator is water vapor. So, again, minute additions by human activities really amount to nothing. And, even with that insulation the heat still eventually moves to space. Nothing in my initial statement is refuted... :D (All the "greenhouse gas" on the planet that isn't H2O is less than 10% of the total. Fairly insignificant. This means we'd have to increase our production of these gasses exponentially for it to matter.)

No, if you understood the concept of insulation you would have realized your error by now.

The Earth gets a constant source of heat from the Sun. That is a lot like a body constantly producing the same amount of energy. Throw a blanket on and the temperature goes up. That is what insulation does. It slows the exit of heat from a body. It will cause warming. The 2nd Law is still in effect.

The reason that CO2 is so important is that unlike water vapor, it does not readily leave the atmosphere. It acts as a baseline for the insulation. Increasing the base temperature increases the amount of water vapor in the air which adds more heat. But until you understand the Greenhouse Effect there is no way that you can understand feedback.
 

exchemist

Veteran Member
Probably not, as exploring such a scenario would not shed much light (haha) on actual climate change.

But you can get some idea of the rate of cooling from what happens overnight. It would just be like a night that went on and on, so it would get colder and colder. I should think at most latitudes away from the heat store in the oceans, you would get below 0C within a week, which would kill the plants and most land animals within a fortnight. But I'm guessing, as I do not have the radiation rates to hand.
 

exchemist

Veteran Member
The Earth only maintains its temperature through it's ability to trap the heat. If it went up 10 degrees globally (not that I think that can easily happen) we'd still all be here, we'd just be buying more power for air conditioning. However, even with this "greenhouse gas layer" (which is actually helpful) it'd vent right to space -- it still does vent to space, just at equilibrium with what it is gaining for the most part.
Yes that's right, thermal equilibrium would be reached at a higher surface temperature of the Earth. High enough to melt the ice, raise the sea level, alter rainfall patterns, increase the severity of storms, etc., etc......

As to whether we'd "still all be here", that depends where you live. If you don't mind a few million (or billion?) people dying, economic devastation through wars over living space and resources, and lots of plant and animal species that are part of the ecological web we depend on for food being lost, it may be no big deal.

In a Dr Strangelove sort of way.:D
 

Kangaroo Feathers

Yea, it is written in the Book of Cyril...
I understand it, but also understand that the largest insulator is water vapor. So, again, minute additions by human activities really amount to nothing. And, even with that insulation the heat still eventually moves to space. Nothing in my initial statement is refuted... :D (All the "greenhouse gas" on the planet that isn't H2O is less than 10% of the total. Fairly insignificant. This means we'd have to increase our production of these gasses exponentially for it to matter.)
Cool goal post shift. No, wait, I meant tired and predictable. It was a tired and predictable goal post shift.
 

shunyadragon

shunyadragon
Premium Member

On the surface most life would perish with in weeks, and small stuff months as the earth turns into an ice planet. Large animals in the sea would last a little longer, life underground. and along the spreading zones in the ocean would probably stay in one form or another for millions or more years, because of the internal heat of the earth. This is the reason why they consider the possibility life exists on Mars and a moon of Jupiter.The earth would resemble the ice moon Europa of Jupiter, just bigger.

The most likely scenario is the sun burns up most of its core and expands consuming the earth like a marshmello over the outdoor grill, or a meatball that fell on the hot coals.
 
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shunyadragon

shunyadragon
Premium Member
I understand it, but also understand that the largest insulator is water vapor. So, again, minute additions by human activities really amount to nothing. And, even with that insulation the heat still eventually moves to space. Nothing in my initial statement is refuted... :D (All the "greenhouse gas" on the planet that isn't H2O is less than 10% of the total. Fairly insignificant. This means we'd have to increase our production of these gasses exponentially for it to matter.)

Not true, eventually moves into space is meaningless, and this unfortunate view lacks a basic understanding of chemistry, at the basic college level, and a basic knowledge of the atmospheric science. It is matter of fact of science that the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere increases the insulation value of the atmosphere, and objectively verifiable evidence that it causes global warming.

Again . . .

Incomplete as far as what is known concerning the thermodynamic relationship between the heat source, the sun, and the earth. particularly the composition of the atmosphere. Earthly sources influence the composition of the atmosphere and the degree of insulation that allows the heat to escape to space. The higher the content of CO2 the greater the insulation capability of the atmosphere, and as a result global warming.

Of course, to a degree humans may not directly 'feel' the increase in the temperature, particularly in the tropics and the poles, but in fact they do in parts of the world where global warming is most apparent. Yes, it is incremental in very small degrees over time. Sort of the fate of the frog in the boiling pot as the temperature very slowly increases.

Can you cite any scientific references that supports this bizzaro view of the science of our atmosphere?
 

exchemist

Veteran Member
Not true, eventually moves into space is meaningless, and this unfortunate view lacks a basic understanding of chemistry, at the basic college level, and a basic knowledge of the atmospheric science. It is matter of fact of science that the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere increases the insulation value of the atmosphere, and objectively verifiable evidence that it causes global warming.

Again . . .

Incomplete as far as what is known concerning the thermodynamic relationship between the heat source, the sun, and the earth. particularly the composition of the atmosphere. Earthly sources influence the composition of the atmosphere and the degree of insulation that allows the heat to escape to space. The higher the content of CO2 the greater the insulation capability of the atmosphere, and as a result global warming.

Of course, to a degree humans may not directly 'feel' the increase in the temperature, particularly in the tropics and the poles, but in fact they do in parts of the world where global warming is most apparent. Yes, it is incremental in very small degrees over time. Sort of the fate of the frog in the boiling pot as the temperature very slowly increases.

Can you cite any scientific references that supports this bizzaro view of the science of our atmosphere?
Yes. I realise we're all pre-empting @sayak83's exposition, but my understanding of this is that because CO2 absorbs at different IR wavelengths from water vapour, it closes different "windows" for radiation in the IR spectrum. It can thus have a far stronger effect than simply adding to the effect of water vapour. The extra heating this causes leads to a higher equilibrium level of water vapour in the atmosphere (extra evaporation from the oceans), thereby reinforcing the absorption at the water wavelengths as well.

In other words, water vapour provides an amplification mechanism for the effect of CO2. But these interactions are quite complex, so I may have oversimplified.

Anyway I await the further contributions from @sayak83 with interest. It is a subject well worth us all understanding better, as there is so much disinformation about it.......as we can already see. :rolleyes: ;)
 

shunyadragon

shunyadragon
Premium Member
Yes. I realise we're all pre-empting @sayak83's exposition, but my understanding of this is that because CO2 absorbs at different IR wavelengths from water vapour, it closes different "windows" for radiation in the IR spectrum. It can thus have a far stronger effect than simply adding to the effect of water vapour. The extra heating this causes leads to a higher equilibrium level of water vapour in the atmosphere (extra evaporation from the oceans), thereby reinforcing the absorption at the water wavelengths as well.

In other words, water vapour provides an amplification mechanism for the effect of CO2. But these interactions are quite complex, so I may have oversimplified.

This is true, but the main variable in the change in the atmosphere that results in global warming is the rise in CO2, and possibly other gases that increase the insulation value of the atmosphere..

The biggest problem of misinformation is @Mindmaster, not @sayak83.
 
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