Fanatical partisans will no doubt howl at the suggestion that Donald Trump has become the first president in more than fifty years to create an economic slump or downturn more or less by himself. But then fanatical partisans (on any side of any issue) are almost just as often wrong about everything as I am. As it happens, Trump is achieving what few presidents ever achieve -- he is becoming the primary and almost sole reason for a souring economy.
Time and again I have seen the Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman condemned as "incompetent" by people who barely grasp the distinction between supply and demand, let alone who are experts in economics. Seems the Dunning-Kruger effect is really strong with Krugman's critics, especially those of his critics who never much read his writings.
All the same, Krugman gained my respect by accurately predicting in 2008 that the economic stimulus package passed by Congress was so small and poorly structured, the "recovery" would not be a boom, but would instead be ten years of sluggish growth during which quality jobs would continually evaporate to be replaced by lousy jobs, etc. etc. etc. In fact, Krugman nailed it right down to the details. What he said would come about is exactly what happened. Krugman can be wrong at times -- but he is usually right.
EDIT: A 2011 university study found Krugman to be the most accurate famous person out of 26 famous people who were making political and economic forecasts and predictions in the media at the time. Krugman got 14 out of 15 publicly made predictions right.
Read Krugman's take on the Trump Slump here.
[Some excerpts from the Article]
[>snip<]
[The above excerpts reflect the thesis of the article]
Time and again I have seen the Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman condemned as "incompetent" by people who barely grasp the distinction between supply and demand, let alone who are experts in economics. Seems the Dunning-Kruger effect is really strong with Krugman's critics, especially those of his critics who never much read his writings.
All the same, Krugman gained my respect by accurately predicting in 2008 that the economic stimulus package passed by Congress was so small and poorly structured, the "recovery" would not be a boom, but would instead be ten years of sluggish growth during which quality jobs would continually evaporate to be replaced by lousy jobs, etc. etc. etc. In fact, Krugman nailed it right down to the details. What he said would come about is exactly what happened. Krugman can be wrong at times -- but he is usually right.
EDIT: A 2011 university study found Krugman to be the most accurate famous person out of 26 famous people who were making political and economic forecasts and predictions in the media at the time. Krugman got 14 out of 15 publicly made predictions right.
Read Krugman's take on the Trump Slump here.
[Some excerpts from the Article]
When he isn’t raving about how the deep state is conspiring against him, Donald Trump loves to boast about the economy, claiming to have achieved unprecedented things. As it happens, none of his claims are true. While both G.D.P. and employment have registered solid growth, the Trump economy simply seems to have continued a long expansion that began under Barack Obama. In fact, someone who looked only at the past 10 years of data would never guess that an election had taken place.
But now it’s starting to look as if Trump really will achieve something unique: He may well be the first president of modern times to preside over a slump that can be directly attributed to his own policies, rather than bad luck.
There has always been a deep unfairness about the relationship between economics and politics: Presidents get both credit and blame for events that usually have little to do with their actions. Jimmy Carter didn’t cause the stagflation that put Ronald Reagan in the White House; George H.W. Bush didn’t cause the economic weakness that elected Bill Clinton; even George W. Bush bears at most tangential responsibility for the 2008 financial crisis.
[>snip<]
Now the U.S. economy is going through another partial slump. Once again, manufacturing is contracting. Agriculture is also taking a severe hit, as is shipping. Overall output and employment are still growing, but around a fifth of the economy is effectively in recession.
But unlike previous presidents, who were just unlucky to preside over slumps, Trump has done this to himself, largely by choosing to wage a trade war he insisted would be “good, and easy to win.”
[The above excerpts reflect the thesis of the article]
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