There Is No Hockey Stick

[tomspug]

No, it's not a Matrix spin-off, it's the United Nations admitting that there hasn't been a warming trend in ten years.

No Global Warming Since 1998 As Planet Cools Off

Of course, extreme, man-made global warming is still happening. We're just in the part of it where it cools the world instead... for ten years. Remarkable, isn't it, that the "hockey stick warming trend" coincided with an unusual flaring of sunspots in our sun, while recently there has been very little such activity from the sun over the years?

What's ironic about this is that this information is all over the internet, and I cannot find a SINGLE actual news site (FoxNews doesn't count, real news) that is discussing this. It's on blogs, radio shows, and independent websites. It's also straight from the UN's mouth. Apparently, this information isn't relevant enough for our reliable, unbiased news sources (talking to you, BBC) Gets you wondering exactly why...

 

[Smoke]

What's ironic about this is that this information is all over the internet, and I cannot find a SINGLE actual news site (FoxNews doesn't count, real news) that is discussing this. It's on blogs, radio shows, and independent websites. It's also straight from the UN's mouth. Apparently, this information isn't relevant enough for our reliable, unbiased news sources (talking to you, BBC) Gets you wondering exactly why...

Probably because the mainstream media, as poor a job as they generally do, aren't quite stupid enough or brazen enough to take a weather report completely out of context to make a poor scientific argument.

The website you cite says this:

"Global temperatures will drop slightly this year as a result of the cooling effect of the La Nina current in the Pacific, UN meteorologists have said," reports the BBC.​

"The World Meteorological Organization's secretary-general, Michel Jarraud, told the BBC it was likely that La Nina would continue into the summer."​

"This would mean global temperatures have not risen since 1998, prompting some to question climate change theory."
​

The actual BBC story it cites says this:

Global temperatures for 2008 will be slightly cooler than last year as a result of the cold La Nina current in the Pacific, UN meteorologists have said.

The World Meteorological Organization's secretary-general, Michel Jarraud, told the BBC it was likely that La Nina would continue into the summer.

But this year's temperatures would still be way above the average - and we would soon exceed the record year of 1998 because of global warming induced by greenhouse gases.

The WMO points out that the decade from 1998 to 2007 was the warmest on record. Since the beginning of the 20th Century, the global average surface temperature has risen by 0.74C. ...

A minority of scientists question whether this means global warming has peaked and argue the Earth has proved more resilient to greenhouse gases than predicted.

But Mr Jarraud insisted this was not the case and noted that 2008 temperatures would still be well above average for the last 100 years.

"When you look at climate change you should not look at any particular year," he said. "You should look at trends over a pretty long period and the trend of temperature globally is still very much indicative of warming.

"La Nina is part of what we call 'variability'. There has always been and there will always be cooler and warmer years, but what is important for climate change is that the trend is up; the climate on average is warming even if there is a temporary cooling because of La Nina."
​

PrisonPlanet claims that Jarraud said exactly the opposite of what he said, and compounds the lie by adding a line to their "quote" that wasn't even in the original story.

 

[tomspug]

And nothing you have quoted disproves the fact that there HAS been a cooling trend since 1998. Semantics doesn't disprove anything. That BBC article says EXACTLY what Prison Planet says it did.

"It's not SO bad" isn't a counter-argument.

 

[3.14]

because they want people to worry about nature and global warming is the way to do it, its simple actualy enviormentalists need a good reason to stop polution goverments need a good reason to make people buy new products so they come up with a treat that treatens everybody to scare them into doing things there way, if it wasn't global warming they would have come up with something els

 

[Comet]

With this cooling trend in mind (and the winter we've had here that just keeps going), I must ask all to please help the global warming cause! Here is a brief list of things you can do:

1. Buy a giant SUV that gets under 5 miles per gallon. (This will also help the local economy and the poor oil companies as it will cost you well over $100 to fill up every week, with gas now at $4.29/gallon here)
2. Drink from only styrofoam cups. (This will help to stop the replenishing of the Ozone layer that we tried so hard to defeat in the 1980's)
3. Start buying and using all areosol products you can find. (Again, we must defeat this Ozone layer that has plagued us for ages!)
4. Start smoking! (This will help add green house gases to the atmosphere and also improve your health by breathing them through a filter and making your body more accustomed to global warming gases... plus, the government will take most of the money from your purchase and we all know they need it)
5. Eat more beans. (The more methane in the air, the warmer we'll be, and the less you'll have to spend on your heating costs next winter)
6. Drink more. (I can't remember if drinking is good or bad for you today, so just do it and you'll feel better about the whole global warming thing in 4 glasses)
7. Ignore the politicians and news. (DO THEY REALLY KNOW ANYTHING?)
8. When Y2K finally hits, hope it isn't the name they gave some undiscovered COMET!

 

[Smoke]

That BBC article says EXACTLY what Prison Planet says it did.

No, it doesn't. Prison Planet says:

Top UN scientists have been forced to admit that natural weather occurrences are having a far greater effect on climate change than CO2 emissions as a continued cooling trend means there has been no global warming since 1998.
​

That's absolutely false. Even if we were to assume that there is no such thing as global warming and that everything that has been said about global warming is a lie, the Prison Planet article completely misrepresents what Jarraud said. If you can't see that by reading the two articles, I don't know how to help you.

 

[tomspug]

No, it doesn't. Prison Planet says:

Top UN scientists have been forced to admit that natural weather occurrences are having a far greater effect on climate change than CO2 emissions as a continued cooling trend means there has been no global warming since 1998.
​

That's absolutely false. Even if we were to assume that there is no such thing as global warming and that everything that has been said about global warming is a lie, the Prison Planet article completely misrepresents what Jarraud said. If you can't see that by reading the two articles, I don't know how to help you.

OK, I understand what you're saying. And I admit that the Prison Planet article wasn't exactly the resource I WANTED to quote, but I couldn't find any actual news articles that were willing to present the data unbiasedly.

The data is this: that global temperatures have been dropping since 1998. La Nina is a scapegoat for THIS year only. The BBC article chooses to write off the other nine years.

While there were certainly much cooler periods earlier in this century than they are now, isn't it a little ODD that if global warming is as large of a crisis as Al Gore pretends to believe, that we have had TEN years of consistent cooling?

I'm not trying to say anything other than this: that the hockey stick graph is bogus. That's all.

 

[tomspug]

With this cooling trend in mind (and the winter we've had here that just keeps going), I must ask all to please help the global warming cause! Here is a brief list of things you can do:

1. Buy a giant SUV that gets under 5 miles per gallon. (This will also help the local economy and the poor oil companies as it will cost you well over $100 to fill up every week, with gas now at $4.29/gallon here)
2. Drink from only styrofoam cups. (This will help to stop the replenishing of the Ozone layer that we tried so hard to defeat in the 1980's)
3. Start buying and using all areosol products you can find. (Again, we must defeat this Ozone layer that has plagued us for ages!)
4. Start smoking! (This will help add green house gases to the atmosphere and also improve your health by breathing them through a filter and making your body more accustomed to global warming gases... plus, the government will take most of the money from your purchase and we all know they need it)
5. Eat more beans. (The more methane in the air, the warmer we'll be, and the less you'll have to spend on your heating costs next winter)
6. Drink more. (I can't remember if drinking is good or bad for you today, so just do it and you'll feel better about the whole global warming thing in 4 glasses)
7. Ignore the politicians and news. (DO THEY REALLY KNOW ANYTHING?)
8. When Y2K finally hits, hope it isn't the name they gave some undiscovered COMET!

And your argument is what? That the ends justify the means? So it's OK if we're lied to, as long as people do what we want them to do? This is politician's logic.

 

[9-10ths_Penguin]

And nothing you have quoted disproves the fact that there HAS been a cooling trend since 1998. Semantics doesn't disprove anything. That BBC article says EXACTLY what Prison Planet says it did.

By exactly the same logic, the US is not experiencing a recession or economic downturn, since the Dow Jones Index is 50% higher today than it was on Sept. 30, 2002.

tomspug, have a look at the graph on this page: see the big honkin' spike at the far right? That's 1998. It was huge spike, even over and above the global warming trend. Effectively, the article you cited says that when compared to the hottest year in all recorded history, the past few years don't seem so bad. This is very much like saying that when compared to Leonid Stadnyk (the world's tallest living man), Yao Ming is "kinda short".

 

[tomspug]

the hottest year in all recorded history

Think about that. Emphasis on the word "recorded". Also, it's important to notice that the ENORMOUS spike is an incredible .6 degrees centigrade above the average for that time period (estimated, not actually recorded)

The readings of ACRIM 1 and ACRIM 2, the devices that measured global trends, have been scrutinized since 2003, giving rise to the notion that the sun may have a larger role in global warming than many realized.

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica]Research suggests that the magnetic flux from the Sun more than doubled this century. As solar magnetism is closely linked with sunspot activity and the strength of sunlight reaching Earth, the increase could have produced warming in the global climate.[/FONT]

Consequently, over the past TEN years (as in, since the cooling began in 1998), this activity has been diminishing.

Solar activity comes in regular cycles, but the latest one is refusing to start. Sunspots have all but vanished, and activity is suspiciously quiet. The last time this happened was 400 years ago.

Observational data seems to support the claims -- or doesn't contradict it, at least. According to data from Britain's Met Office, the earth has cooled very slightly since 1998.

Why exactly would you be so quick to dismiss such an incredible coincidence?

Finally, there is no localized evidence to support the hockey stick graph. If you look at the US alone, there is no spike. The rise in global temperatures was nearly equaled in the 1940's and also in the 18th century, in about 60-70 year cycles. Hmm... cyclical! If you look at other countries around the world, you find the same trend.

Think about this. If you take the derivative of any instantaneous point in geometric graphs, you can predict the most ridiculous trends. This is why you shouldn't invest in the stock market, because the moment there is a significant downward trend, everyone FREAKS out and pulls their money, losing a large portion of their gains in the process. As per usual, the market eventually gets back on track and continues its progressive growth. In THIS case, the inevitability is that global temperatures due to THE SUN are cyclical. Everything we have in nature is cyclical: wind, heat, water...

Why should we allow ourselves to be convinced based on one SUPER-zoomed-in graph that the world is in "crisis". Many people on this website talk about the politics of fear. Why should this be treated with any less skepticism?

Links:
Less than half of published scientists endorse global warming
Sun's Direct Role In Global Warming May Be Underestimated, Duke Physicists Report
BBC News | Sci/Tech | Global warming - is the Sun to blame?
climatescienceinternational.org - VANISHING SUNSPOTS PRELUDE TO GLOBAL COOLING?
http://nzclimatescience.net/images/PDFs/warmingscam1505.pdf