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Titanic tourist submersible: Search for missing vessel has covered over 10,000 square miles

Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
Except this was multiple people who had knowledge of these craft and their designs.
2 people.
Amf they pointed to things that others who arw knowledgeable have been saying it probably sprang a leak from growing microcracks and less than a very brief moment later five people were dead.
It's kind of like all those engineers amd building experts who explained why and how the Twin Towers came down due to the airplane impacts and fire damage amd definitely wasn't a controlled demolition.
I caution against being certain of things
based upon cursory summaries of what
only a couple said.

It reminds me of something that happened at Black & Decker.
We were designing radically different orthopedic surgical
tools, & were always discussing how to solve problems,
& criticizing designs. Our discussions frightened the sales
people, who feared the products wouldn't work. They had
to be moved out of earshot.
The specific criticism of the Titan's design would have to be
known & understood before making claims about being
unacceptably unsafe.
 

Shadow Wolf

Certified People sTabber & Business Owner
Also if you're going to name your submersible anything, I'd have avoided the mythological group famously thrown into the deep abyss due to their own hubris to be tortured for eternity.

But that's just me.
I don't see them picking one like Cliodhna or Rán. It would make more sense that if you want to appease any mythical figures the ones tied to the sea and underworld would make sense to appease those gods, but those were the gods of "barbarians" and not of the conquering, imperial Romans or Greeks.
A modern Nero played his fiddle while his empire began to burn and from what i readthis time was flash cooked.
 

Shadow Wolf

Certified People sTabber & Business Owner
2 people.

I caution against being certain of things
based upon cursory summaries of what
only a couple said.

It reminds me of something that happened at Black & Decker.
We were designing radically different orthopedic surgical
tools, & were always discussing how to solve problems,
& criticizing designs. Our discussions frightened the sales
people, who feared the products wouldn't work. They had
to be moved out of earshot.
The specific criticism of the Titan's design would have to be
known & understood before making claims about being
unacceptably unsafe.
Would those things hace resulted in certain death if they had failed? Were they tested more than a few times before public use (I know those tests would have been scrutinized)?
 

Shadow Wolf

Certified People sTabber & Business Owner
No.

I left the company before they went into service.
And yet the lack of such extreme risks because it's medical related those products it seems were subjected to greater scrutiny and review than this design that wemt below the standards for exploring that environment. There should have been dozens of dives to that depth with very careful, up close examinations after each dive long before they thought to send a human in it, and legally have been able to do so.
 

Shadow Wolf

Certified People sTabber & Business Owner
Let's try something....
The country plans to send people to
Mars. Will it be safe in your opinion?
We can say going to space is generally safe. But to my knowledge we don't really have much knowledge of what happens to a brain in that situation for that long. It's a very long trip, stuck in a small, cramped area with just a few other people for almost two years at least.
But physically getting transported there otherwise doesn't seem much of an issue. Of course accidents happen but going to space is so routine now even NK has rocket technology to breech that threshold.
 

Estro Felino

Believer in free will
Premium Member
And yet the lack of such extreme risks because it's medical related those products it seems were subjected to greater scrutiny and review than this design that wemt below the standards for exploring that environment. There should have been dozens of dives to that depth with very careful, up close examinations after each dive long before they thought to send a human in it, and legally have been able to do so.
Excellent words.
 

Subduction Zone

Veteran Member
The Titan had already visited the Titanic several times.
We don't know how the designers balanced safety,
cost, & performance. Armchair critics with 20/20
hindsight know it failed, but don't understand the
design process. I don't understand their design
process, so I cannot judge their choices.
Yes, but did they analyze it after each dive?
 

Mock Turtle

Oh my, did I say that!
Premium Member
Also if you're going to name your submersible anything, I'd have avoided the mythological group famously thrown into the deep abyss due to their own hubris to be tortured for eternity.

But that's just me.
It had apparently been renamed too - another jinx factor. o_O
 

Mock Turtle

Oh my, did I say that!
Premium Member
Although carbon-fibre was a novel material used for this purpose, such material probably has the same failure mode as many metals, that is, that the accumulation over time of minor defects could result in a major failure mode. In metals, for example, this might be micro defects or fatigue cracking leading to ultimate failure, and hence the testing procedures put in place are meant to catch these well before they result in any catastrophic failure. It might be that this approach has not been followed with the use of carbon-fibre in this submersible, such that there was always a chance of the hull failing unexpectedly.
 

Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
We can say going to space is generally safe.
But it's not.
Sitting atop a giant potential explosive,
riding it into space where death is quick
without life support is fundamentally
dangerous. NASA pays great attention
to safety, yet astronauts die.
But to my knowledge we don't really have much knowledge of what happens to a brain in that situation for that long. It's a very long trip, stuck in a small, cramped area with just a few other people for almost two years at least.
But physically getting transported there otherwise doesn't seem much of an issue. Of course accidents happen but going to space is so routine now even NK has rocket technology to breech that threshold.
A trip to Mars would yield discoveries about
unanticipated & underestimated problems.
Doing something new in a dangerous environment
is always unsafe. The question is to what degree
is is the unsafety reasonable relative to other
factors.
Consider the cost of a manned Mars mission. Safety
would be enhanced if there were a rescue vehicle
in case needed. But that would likely be a budget
buster. So it would be reasonable to sacrifice
some margin of safety to make the project affordable.
Much smaller projects like the Titan face similar
decisions.
One of the criticisms of the Titan was using 5" thick
walls instead of 7" thick on the carbon fiber tube.
There could be trade-offs making it 7", eg, elastic
deformation of the tube could differ from the
titanium ends, creating potential failure points
at the connections. There could've been other
issues.
We don't know what we don't know about the
decisions made in balancing cost vs performance
vs safety.
 

9-10ths_Penguin

1/10 Subway Stalinist
Premium Member
I've heard of similar cases, such as the building collapse in Iowa recently, and another in Miami a couple of years ago. Or the executives at Firestone who knew of a defective tire but calculated that it would be cheaper to pay off lawsuits than it would to implement a recall.

This is why criminal penalties are so important when it comes to egregious corporate acts.

If they're looking at their decisions purely through a financial cost/benefit lens, then any potential cost that exceeds the total shareholder equity gets ignored. Limited liability of shareholders incentivizes large companies to downplay risks of catostrophically bad outcomes, especially if the victims or their families are too poor to sue.

OTOH, if a C-suite member has to look at their strategic decisions through the lens of "if this goes bad, will I die in prison?" they're more likely to properly consider those societal risks that would have been externalities otherwise.
 

Debater Slayer

Vipassana
Staff member
Premium Member
Consider the cost of a manned Mars mission. Safety
would be enhanced if there were a rescue vehicle
in case needed. But that would likely be a budget
buster. So it would be reasonable to sacrifice
some margin of safety to make the project affordable.
Much smaller projects like the Titan face similar
decisions.

And this is where you probably won't find agreement from most here, because many believe that if a corporation can't afford to spend enough on safety to at least follow expert recommendations and avoid such a disaster, they shouldn't be in operation to begin with. Actually, many (me included) would argue that there should be legal penalties for operating so unsafely in order to cut costs.

I can see your point in situations where spending, say, 50% more would yield diminishing returns on safety, such as something like a 1% less chance of an explosion of a spacecraft (arbitrary numbers to illustrate my point). But this doesn't seem to be one of those cases; multiple indications (including from experts) point to gross negligence and major carelessness for the sake of cutting costs and accelerating the expedition. If they couldn't afford to avoid that, they couldn't afford to be in business at all. They probably knew how dangerous it was, going by the fact that they made all passengers sign waivers prior to diving.
 

Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
And this is where you probably won't find agreement from most here, because many believe that if a corporation can't afford to spend enough on safety to at least follow expert recommendations and avoid such a disaster, they shouldn't be in operation to begin with. Actually, many (me included) would argue that there should be legal penalties for operating so unsafely in order to cut costs.
Ahah!
The the anti-corporation perspective arrives!

The issue of balancing safety vs cost vs performance
isn't about the form of ownership or governance.
In any system, resources always have limits.
Even your vaunted socialists faced this, eg, nuclear
power plant design. USSR skipped the spendy
containment systems used in the west, thereby
exacerbating the Chernobyl disaster.

You judge the decade & a half process of design,
testing, & successful operation of the Titan as being
irresponsibly unsafe. Yet you leap to this certainty
without having seen any engineering analysis.
....multiple indications (including from experts) point to gross negligence and major carelessness for the sake of cutting costs and accelerating the expedition.
Evidence for this claim?
If they couldn't afford to avoid that, they couldn't afford to be in business at all. They probably knew how dangerous it was, going by the fact that they made all passengers sign waivers prior to diving.
Much criticism was of the unconventional composite
construction of in the Titan. Yet such wavers are also
required of people descending in conventional
submersibles. That's not evidence...it's irrelevant bias
confirmation.

People who've never done engineering design (&
know only what the news media feed them) are ill
prepared to imagine work & decisions happen
behind the scenes.
Let's look at an simple overview of airliner safety....
Modern planes are very safe (per passenger mile)
compared to other forms of transportation. But
they could be made even safer by changing the
balance of design goals.
Possibilities...
- Making airframes stronger (& heavier).
- Carrying less payload.
- Adding more redundant flight control
systems.
- Prohibiting flying in adverse conditions,
eg, wind, rain, snow, cold weather.
- Eliminating service to airports that are
more difficult to negotiate.
- Retiring planes earlier in their life.
- Enlarging flight the crew.

Do those things, & flights would be more
expensive, less convenient, & more polluting.
Reasonable people can disagree about where
that balance should be made.
Thus disagreement alone doesn't mean that a
wrong choice was made when a plane crashes,
or service is expensive & inconvenient.

What matters is careful comprehensive analysis
of the Titan & chain of decisions in its history.
We don't have that yet.
 
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Debater Slayer

Vipassana
Staff member
Premium Member
Ahah!
The the anti-corporation perspective arrives!

The issue of balancing safety vs cost vs performance
isn't about the form of ownership or governance.
In any system, resources always have limits.
Even your vaunted socialists faced this, eg, nuclear
power plant design. USSR skipped the spendy
containment systems used in the west, thereby
exacerbating the Chernobyl disaster.

No idea what this has to do with socialism or the USSR, and the latter weren't my "vaunted socialists" considering that I don't remotely agree with their system.

This is about a corporation's negligence, not an economic system. They cut costs in a way that ended up causing loss of life.

You judge the decade & a half process of design,
testing, & successful operation of the Titan as being
irresponsibly unsafe. Yet you leap to this certainty
without having seen any engineering analysis.

Evidence for this claim?

The reports from two former employees have already been cited here. Those were experts working closely on the design of the submersible. Their warnings were dismissed, and we can see where that led.

Much criticism has been made of using unconventional
construction in the Titan. Yet such wavers are also required
of people descending in conventional submersibles.
That's not evidence...it's irrelevant bias confirmation.

People who've never done engineering design (&
know only what the news media feed them) are ill
prepared to imagine what goes on behind the
scenes.

See above. Qualified people warned about the Titan, but to no avail.

Let's look at an overview of airliner design....
Airliners are very safe (per passenger mile) compared
to other forms of transportation. But they could be
made even safer than they are by changing the
balance of design goals.
Possibilities...
- Making airframes stronger (& heavier).
- Carrying less payload.
- Adding more redundant flight control
systems.
- Prohibiting flying in adverse conditions,
eg, wind, rain, snow, cold weather.
- Eliminating service to airports that are
more difficult to negotiate.
- Retiring planes earlier in their life.

Do those things, & flights would be more
expensive, less convenient, & more polluting.
Reasonable people can disagree about where
that balance should be made.
So disagreement alone doesn't mean that a
wrong choice was made when a plane crashes,
or if the industry provides insufficient service.
What matters is careful comprehensive analysis
of the Titan & chain of decisions in its history.
We don't have that yet.

My argument isn't against balancing safety with other core design goals, so this is a different issue altogether. What I'm saying is that OceanGate didn't balance safety against other goals; they were too careless about it.
 

Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
No idea what this has to do with socialism or the USSR, and the latter weren't my "vaunted socialists" considering that I don't remotely agree with their system.

This is about a corporation's negligence, not an economic system.
You made it about the form of ownership being incorporation.
The reports from two former employees have already been cited here. Those were experts working closely on the design of the submersible. Their warnings were dismissed, and we can see where that led.
Why assume the warnings were dismissed,
rather than considered & rejected?
What were the reasons behind this decision?
See above. Qualified people warned about the Titan, but to no avail.



My argument isn't against balancing safety with other core design goals, so this is a different issue altogether. What I'm saying is that OceanGate didn't balance safety against other goals; they were too careless about it.
Your judgement strikes me as possibly correct,
but premature based upon insufficient info &
understanding.
 

Debater Slayer

Vipassana
Staff member
Premium Member
You made it about the form of ownership being incorporation.

I don't get what you're saying here.

Why assume the warnings were dismissed,
rather than considered & rejected?
What were the reasons behind this decision?

My assumption is based on weighing the likelihood of the two possibilities in light of other factors, such as the usage of a $30 controller in the submersible and the CEO's statement about not wanting to hire "50-year-old white guys" with military experience.

Your judgement strikes me as possibly correct,
but premature based upon insufficient info &
understanding.

I guess time will tell. Either way, the passengers are already dead, unfortunately, so any further investigation will only benefit future expeditions.

I have nothing further to add.
 
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