Trump's Base

[Sunstone]

NOTE: This thread is in the Liberal Only section.

The One Weird Trait That Predicts Whether You’re a Trump Supporter

Reprint of an article that was originally in January of 2016 by Politico. Please take a close look at the stats in the article. When you add up the numbers, even roughly, it would appear that Trump's authoritarian base is large enough to win election after election -- if he can turn them out. What, if anything, can be done to counter such a sizable base?

About the notion that authoritarianism is the main factor in determining whether someone is a Trump supporter: I don't entirely buy it. There were several authoritarians running against Trump in the primary election. All lost by significant margins except Trump. I think if authoritarianism were the main thing motivating people to vote for Trump, the primary vote would have been more evenly spread among all the authoritarians on the ticket.

Instead, I propose that Trump's authoritarian appeal was combined with an anti-status quo appeal. Lot's of people are suffering these days and apparently a fair number of them know the economic system is rigged against them. It seems to me that Trump, more than the other Republican primary candidates, addressed their fears and frustrations.

So, I see Trump's appeal as having at least two factors: First, he appealed to voters upset with the status quo. Second, he appealed to authoritarians (especially those upset with the status quo). Other factors may have been present, but were less significant than those first two.

But what do you think? Does that make sense?

Last and most important question: I think it's a fair assumption that Trump will fail to significantly better the lives of his base (although I also think there will be a honeymoon period during which he seems headed that way). So, what do you think will happen when Trump ultimately fails to deliver on his promise to significantly change things in a way that benefits the millions of disgruntled people upset with the status quo? Do you think they will still support Trump? Drop out of politics? Defect to someone else (perhaps someone worse than Trump)? Or something else?

 

[LuisDantas]

Whatever made it possible for Trump to have any significant measure of popular support is obviously quite resilient to confrontations with logic and has a lot to do with a bad need to believe in some sort of "strong leader" that will "make things happen".

Disappointment with the actual results of Trump's presidency, unavoidable as it is, is not at all likely to fix that. Those people have done it to themselves and all others because they are disappointed to begin with.

To the best of my understanding, the only non-tragical way out of this quagmire would be to present reliable, reachable alternatives to those pipe dreams and put the wind out of that sail of the "search for a strong leader".

That ship has probably sailed, though. At this point the means for avoiding a very difficult period of hurt and sorrow seem to no longer exist. The radicalism that elected Trump can only survive because it learned to close its eyes to the messages that it needs to learn in the first place.

The way I see it, the USA are now pretty much at the mercy of the foreign environment for years or decades to come - ironically, because it has fallen prey of its fear of being vulnerable to foreigners.

If and when foreign support and cooperation manages to ease those fears to an extent that its own politicians apparently can't or won't, it is conceivable that the main of the damage could be avoided. But with few exceptions, the rest of the world is only marginally more politically mature than the USA.

So the best odds overall seem to me to be that there will be a decade or so of deep internal turmoil, conflict and radicalization before the lines of a recovery begin to assert themselves. The best case scenario would be some form of secession or raised political autonomy. Whatever happens, it will involve a lot of hurt until people eventually begin to realize that their hardships are ideologically and moral above all else and decide to fix them at the proper level.

 

[Sunstone]

Whatever made it possible for Trump to have any significant measure of popular support is obviously quite resilient to confrontations with logic and has a lot to do with a bad need to believe in some sort of "strong leader" that will "make things happen".

Psychological studies of authoritarians have shown again and again that they are a rather illogical crowd to begin with. Or, more precisely, they seem to possess to a remarkable degree an ability to suspend logical and critical thinking if and when their leaders tell them 2 + 2 = 5. They rationalize it somehow and convince themselves that 5 is the true answer.

 

[Quetzal]

So, I see Trump's appeal as having at least two factors: First, he appealed to voters upset with the status quo. Second, he appealed to authoritarians (especially those upset with the status quo). Other factors may have been present, but were less significant than those first two.

Okay, I have to be "that guy". WTF are people so angry about? Quick background for me. I make 30k a year, im about to turn 30. I have debt just like anyone else. I tolerate my job well enough and I love this country. I really mean that. There are some problems, sure, but what are people really so angry about? What percentage of the Trump base are "repressed" or in a genuine state of suffering? Further, why do they feel that way? Finally, what platforms has Trump presented that will remedy those?

What I am getting at is the very catch phrase Trump ran on: Make America Great Again. This assumes that America isn't great now. I don't get this, I really don't. If you are a genuine person in poverty and you are voting for the Republican party, you are doing this to yourself. Their platforms do not benefit that demographic. A friend put it perfectly: poor white people have been voting republican for decades and they are still poor. What does this tell you?

 

[Sunstone]

Okay, I have to be "that guy". WTF are people so angry about? Quick background for me. I make 30k a year, im about to turn 30. I have debt just like anyone else. I tolerate my job well enough and I love this country. I really mean that. There are some problems, sure, but what are people really so angry about? What percentage of the Trump base are "repressed" or in a genuine state of suffering? Further, why do they feel that way? Finally, what platforms has Trump presented that will remedy those?

What I am getting at is the very catch phrase Trump ran on: Make America Great Again. This assumes that America isn't great now. I don't get this, I really don't. If you are a genuine person in poverty and you are voting for the Republican party, you are doing this to yourself. Their platforms do not benefit that demographic. A friend put it perfectly: poor white people have been voting republican for decades and they are still poor. What does this tell you?

A whole lot of Americans -- working class Americans -- have seen their jobs leave the country over the past thirty or forty years, Quetz. Those jobs have been replaced by lower paying jobs. Moreover, people who once expected to stay with the same job for their whole working lives, have found that they're getting laid off after three to five years, then hired somewhere else, each time at a lower wage or with fewer benefits.

The small, rural town I grew up in is perfect Trump territory. When I checked its voting record after the election, I saw that it went deep red. Twenty years ago, a group of sociologists studied the town as a nearly ideal example of a small, rural community that was relatively self sufficient in providing jobs and amenities to its people. But the last time I was back there --- just a couple years ago -- all that was gone. The town was economically gutted. Potholes everywhere. A dead business district.

It's story is the same story as thousands -- perhaps tens of thousands -- of small, rural communities.

Add to all that, the fact that real wages have not risen in decades for working class people, but have actually declined a bit. Then, there's the depressing realization that your kids are going to be less well off than you were.

As a final touch, perhaps those folks look at how well the top one or two percent of the population is doing --- the professionals, bankers, hedge fund managers, CEOs, etc. --- never underestimate envy and resentment as motivations.

I think, Quetz, that the anger and frustration those people feel while, in a sense, "righteous", is hugely misdirected. They blame immigrants, for instance, for taking their jobs, blame professionals (who tend to be Democrats these days) for being snotty elitists, blame Democrats for getting them in the mess their in (And there is at least some truth to that one, though). But they don't see the underlying, most fundamental cause of all: That, as Warren Buffet put it, we have a class war going on and his class is winning. Wealth is being redistributed upwards, away from the poor and middle class, and that has been going on since the Reagan years.

 

[Quetzal]

A whole lot of Americans -- working class Americans -- have seen their jobs leave the country over the past thirty or forty years, Quetz. Those jobs have been replaced by lower paying jobs. Moreover, people who once expected to stay with the same job for their whole working lives, have found that they're getting laid off after three to five years, then hired somewhere else, each time at a lower wage or with fewer benefits.

Very true. So, why vote for a guy who is guilty of those very same business practices. You know what I mean? They are directing their anger in the wrong direction. What's worse is they are directing their SUPPORT towards the very people that are making the issue worse.

 

[Sunstone]

Very true. So, why vote for a guy who is guilty of those very same business practices. You know what I mean? They are directing their anger in the wrong direction. What's worse is they are directing their SUPPORT towards the very people that are making the issue worse.

The snap answer to that is almost always some variation on the theme "because they're stupid". But I don't buy that. I've known too many pretty smart folks who are prime Trump supporters. They mostly aren't stupid, although they might not be the most politically knowledgeable crowd on earth either.

Instead, I think here's where authoritarianism comes into play. When authoritarians get scared -- or even when they don't get scared -- they look for an authoritarian leader. Someone who gives them scapegoats to explain the causes of all their troubles, gives them a simplistic us versus them worldview, who comes across as possessing a certain type of "manliness" (albeit a type of "manliness" the rest of us laugh at), and so forth. As I see it, Quetz, they know the system is rigged against them -- and Trump acknowledge that (unlike the other Republican candidates), and then to seal the deal, Trump appealed to their desire for an authoritarian leader. Basically, when he said, in effect, "I'm going to kick the status quo in the butt", he had their attention. Then when he revealed himself to be an authoritarian -- well, they took that as proof he was one of them. Or at least, "their man".

 

[Terrywoodenpic]

Since the Industrial revolution. the wealthy have been playing a game of live monopoly.
With real peoples lives real assets and real money.

The game is near the end point. with the ultra wealthy like Trump controlling vast areas of real estate. And financiers controlling liquid assets and investments.

The plebs are not losing ... they are not even players.

But the little they did have, has been extracted like the last few drops of blood in a slaughter house.
Their only use now is as casual workers and consumers, living hand to mouth.

Sure there are luxuries, but as little more than carrots held in front of a donkey.
They have been suckered.... some might say they still are.
Like turkeys voting for Christmas.

 

[Sunstone]

Since the Industrial revolution. the wealthy have been playing a game of live monopoly.
With real peoples lives real assets and real money.

The game is near the end point. with the ultra wealthy like Trump controlling vast areas of real estate. And financiers controlling liquid assets and investments.

The plebs are not losing ... they are not even players.

But the little they did have, has been extracted like the last few drops of blood in a slaughter house.
Their only use now is as casual workers and consumers, living hand to mouth.

Sure there are luxuries, but as little more than carrots held in front of a donkey.
They have been suckered.... some might say they still are.
Like turkeys voting for Christmas.

Quite well put.

 

[Quetzal]

Instead, I think here's where authoritarianism comes into play. When authoritarians get scared -- or even when they don't get scared -- they look for an authoritarian leader. Someone who gives them scapegoats to explain the causes of all their troubles, gives them a simplistic us versus them worldview, who comes across as possessing a certain type of "manliness" (albeit a type of "manliness" the rest of us laugh at), and so forth. As I see it, Quetz, they know the system is rigged against them -- and Trump acknowledge that (unlike the other Republican candidates), and then to seal the deal, Trump appealed to their desire for an authoritarian leader. Basically, when he said, in effect, "I'm going to kick the status quo in the butt", he had their attention. Then when he revealed himself to be an authoritarian -- well, they took that as proof he was one of them. Or at least, "their man".

Good post. I just see that whole search for a scapegoat to be dangerous. What do you think?

 

[Saint Frankenstein]

I think the economy excuse is wrong. The economy has actually gotten better under Obama. Plus, most of Trump's supporters are actually middle class, not working class.

http://www.salon.com/2016/07/23/ana...propelled_trump_to_the_republican_nomination/
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/

 

[Terrywoodenpic]

I think the economy excuse is wrong. The economy has actually gotten better under Obama. Plus, most of Trump's supporters are actually middle class, not working class.

http://www.salon.com/2016/07/23/ana...propelled_trump_to_the_republican_nomination/
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/

There never has been a Middle class... only those
On the way up... or on the way down.
What has stopped is the Flow.

Think about it....;

 

[Sunstone]

Good post. I just see that whole search for a scapegoat to be dangerous. What do you think?

Dangerous? I think that's putting it mildly. Scapegoating divides us. Pits some of us against the rest. It inevitably leads to violence, and then more violence. Just what we need.

 

[Saint Frankenstein]

There never has been a Middle class... only those
On the way up... or on the way down.
What has stopped is the Flow.

Think about it....;

Middle class people are just those who are neither really rich or in poverty. There's plenty of those.

 

[Sunstone]

I think the economy excuse is wrong. The economy has actually gotten better under Obama. Plus, most of Trump's supporters are actually middle class, not working class.

http://www.salon.com/2016/07/23/ana...propelled_trump_to_the_republican_nomination/
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/

Those figures are for primary voters. I'd like to see if they hold true for general election voters. I know that, in the general election, rural counties played a significant role in putting Trump over the top in several battleground states. But rural counties tend not to have the highest incomes.

Moreover, only about eight percent of Republicans voted in the primaries, if I recall.

 

[Terrywoodenpic]

Middle class people are just those who are neither really rich or in poverty. There's plenty of those.

But it has never been stable. It has always changed by generation and ability.
However as I pointed out, the movement has been all one way for about 30 years.
Now almost none are middle class by wealth. only in their memories.
Those in poverty are the only growth area.

 

[Iti oj]

Getting the 40+ % to vote. Also millennial are the largest voting demographic.

 

[Augustus]

So, I see Trump's appeal as having at least two factors: First, he appealed to voters upset with the status quo. Second, he appealed to authoritarians (especially those upset with the status quo). Other factors may have been present, but were less significant than those first two.

I'd say that his ability to appeal to emotion (which overlaps with the first of your points) can't be understated. He's similar to Obama in his 1st campaign in that regard. Both are gifted speakers with a gift for positive imagery (in the eye of the beholder) and ran emotion based campaigns.

Make America Great Again was a good slogan, and Trump was able to make a connection with voters who saw America in decline.

Whatever made it possible for Trump to have any significant measure of popular support is obviously quite resilient to confrontations with logic and has a lot to do with a bad need to believe in some sort of "strong leader" that will "make things happen".

Politics has always been more about emotion than logic. Pathos usually beats logos.

Despite our conceit, we didn't evolve to be rational and that applies to people of all political persuasions.

Last and most important question: I think it's a fair assumption that Trump will fail to significantly better the lives of his base (although I also think there will be a honeymoon period during which he seems headed that way). So, what do you think will happen when Trump ultimately fails to deliver on his promise to significantly change things in a way that benefits the millions of disgruntled people upset with the status quo? Do you think they will still support Trump? Drop out of politics? Defect to someone else (perhaps someone worse than Trump)? Or something else?

Even if there is little improvement, it won't matter. Trumps support is about the intangibles and I'd imagine he'll be able to keep them going for a 4 more years. A few high profile policies will be enough for that, and he'll always be able to blame the establishment. It will be pretty easy for him to create a few 'anti-establishment' policies, and combined with him constantly railing against the system this will be sufficient.

It won't be an issue in his 1st term anyway imo.

Dems need a Bernie type figure for the next election. They probably won't get back most of the voters they lost (unless Trump really messes up), but have a chance if they can get a lot of the non-voters/new voters to turn up next time.

 

[ADigitalArtist]

Has anyone here looked at Trump's twitter feed and commenters?

...I don't recommend it. It's depressing.

 

[lewisnotmiller]

There never has been a Middle class... only those
On the way up... or on the way down.
What has stopped is the Flow.

Think about it....;

Not sure how I feel about the 'never been a middle class' statement.
But I think your point about social mobility is bang on. Educational access (without drowning in debt) and the ability to legitimately have access to The Great American Dream (however you define it) are prime considerations.

The middle class has reached the point where they are more likely to feel themselves being sucked back to the working class then climbing some sort of aspirational ladder.