Trump won each of the four states that put him over the top in electoral college votes by less than 100,000 votes. For instance, in one of those states alone -- Michigan -- a shift of just two votes per precinct would have denied him the whole state.
In addition to that, he lost the nationwide popular vote by three million votes.
So you might think Trump would do what almost all presidents do and work to expand his party. However, that has not been the case. Since taking office, he's done very little to expand the Republican Party, and in the recent midterms, he focused on campaigning in solid red states where Republicans were for the most part projected to win anyway -- a strange use of his time that some folks might regard as incompetent.
In short, Trump's strategy appears to be to solidify his base, rather than to reach out to new voters.
That seems like a losing strategy because the Republican Party is in decline, and has been in decline since the last years of George W. Bush.
It's in decline among most groups -- younger people, women, college educated people, etc. Other groups that tend to vote overwhelmingly Democratic -- Asians, Blacks, Hispanics, Jews -- have held constant and seen no growth in Republican membership. Only a very few groups -- such as White Evangelical Christians -- have seen membership in the Republican Party increase. But they cannot offset the losses in other groups. On net, the Republican Party is getting smaller.
Meanwhile, the Democratic Party is also in decline, and has been since Obama's first term. What's grown tremendously has been the group of independent voters.
But independents tend to lean towards either the Republicans or the Democrats when it comes to voting. And independents that lean Democratic are a growing majority.
All in all, the news isn't good for Trump. However, I still think Trump has a pretty good chance of being reelected in 2020 for a variety of reasons. It will take major work -- and some luck -- to turn him out of office.
On the other hand, Trump is, in my opinion, a fairly incompetent person (as evidenced by his numerous business failures, etc,etc), and his political strategy of solidifying his base, rather than expanding his party, means he's doing very little to make up for the dwindling number of Republican voters. Indeed, his efforts to solidify his base -- efforts which largely comprise appealing to their hatreds and fears -- seem to be driving more balanced people away from the Republican Party. However, his strategy will most likely win him the nomination since people who vote in primaries tend to be party stalwarts. Can it win him reelection, though?
Is Trump pursuing a smart strategy? Your thoughts, please.
NOTE...he has plenty of time to change his strategy between now and 2020, and it will be quite interesting to see if he does.
This OP has been based on these and other sources:
1. Trends in party affiliation among demographic groups
Millennial women leaving the Republican Party in droves: Pew
Party Affiliation
Trump owns a shrinking Republican party
In addition to that, he lost the nationwide popular vote by three million votes.
So you might think Trump would do what almost all presidents do and work to expand his party. However, that has not been the case. Since taking office, he's done very little to expand the Republican Party, and in the recent midterms, he focused on campaigning in solid red states where Republicans were for the most part projected to win anyway -- a strange use of his time that some folks might regard as incompetent.
In short, Trump's strategy appears to be to solidify his base, rather than to reach out to new voters.
That seems like a losing strategy because the Republican Party is in decline, and has been in decline since the last years of George W. Bush.
It's in decline among most groups -- younger people, women, college educated people, etc. Other groups that tend to vote overwhelmingly Democratic -- Asians, Blacks, Hispanics, Jews -- have held constant and seen no growth in Republican membership. Only a very few groups -- such as White Evangelical Christians -- have seen membership in the Republican Party increase. But they cannot offset the losses in other groups. On net, the Republican Party is getting smaller.
Meanwhile, the Democratic Party is also in decline, and has been since Obama's first term. What's grown tremendously has been the group of independent voters.
But independents tend to lean towards either the Republicans or the Democrats when it comes to voting. And independents that lean Democratic are a growing majority.
All in all, the news isn't good for Trump. However, I still think Trump has a pretty good chance of being reelected in 2020 for a variety of reasons. It will take major work -- and some luck -- to turn him out of office.
On the other hand, Trump is, in my opinion, a fairly incompetent person (as evidenced by his numerous business failures, etc,etc), and his political strategy of solidifying his base, rather than expanding his party, means he's doing very little to make up for the dwindling number of Republican voters. Indeed, his efforts to solidify his base -- efforts which largely comprise appealing to their hatreds and fears -- seem to be driving more balanced people away from the Republican Party. However, his strategy will most likely win him the nomination since people who vote in primaries tend to be party stalwarts. Can it win him reelection, though?
Is Trump pursuing a smart strategy? Your thoughts, please.
NOTE...he has plenty of time to change his strategy between now and 2020, and it will be quite interesting to see if he does.
This OP has been based on these and other sources:
1. Trends in party affiliation among demographic groups
Millennial women leaving the Republican Party in droves: Pew
Party Affiliation
Trump owns a shrinking Republican party
