UK: Second National Lock-down Expected within the Week

[Almighty God]

It is. Car deaths don't overwhelm health services, exponentially increasing covid deaths would. As in - no spare hospital beds. As in - shortage of staff because they are off sick.
No wonder some people are called covidiots.

Again, if hospital capacity is the issue, why aren't more hospitals being built? The real idiots are the politicians and medical "experts" who apparently haven't even thought of building more hospitals. To them, it makes so much more sense, and is so much more sustainable, to just hide in our houses indefinitely.

 

[exchemist]

I agree that hospital capacity is an issue.
If the issue is not enough hospital beds, then resources and time need to be put into building more hospitals and expanding capacity at existing ones, so that this can be avoided. Obviously covid is here to stay for awhile, and a lockdown is like a bandaid on a bullet wound. It can only work for a very short time. Why are world leaders not even talking about building more hospitals? It's asinine.

Remember: exponential growth.

That means it doubles, doubles again and goes on doubling, without ceasing - unless and until some form of herd immunity is approached, either due to natural infection or a vaccine. Many virologists think natural herd immunity may not be possible: it isn't with other coronaviruses, apparently.

Limitless hospital capacity cannot be conjured out of thin air. Especially the doctors and nurses.

Britain built - very fast, due to the help of the British Army - a large number of so-called "Nightingale" hospitals in the Spring, to do precisely that. They are there, ready to swing into action if we can staff them. You may recall the Chinese did something similar. But there is a people-based limit eventually. The UK has done the forecasts, worked out when that point will be reached..... and it will be just before Christmas. Unless we have another lockdown.

That is why we are having another lockdown.

If we had done it when it was first advised, a month ago, we could have achieved in 2 weeks what will now take us 4. That is because it is exponential. But Johnson didn't listen and now he, and we, are paying the price for his hesitation.

 

[oldbadger]

I agree. Pubs need to shut for certain.

Huh?
Bet you're teetotal!!

 

[Secret Chief]

if hospital capacity is the issue, why aren't more hospitals being built?

So, in less than a year, we should have built a lot of new hospitals AND equipped them AND of course trained the thousands of medical staff that would be required. Or should we use a time machine so we can start a few years ago after looking in our national crystal ball? And that's your realistic solution is it?
The UK has created several emergency "hospitals" but as yet the magic wand that would bring the staff required into being has yet to be found. They are either a PR stunt or just somewhere to die.
Currently, the UK has had 1 million cases, in a population of 63 million. And that's WITH the lockdown that we had.

 

[Secret Chief]

If we had done it when it was first advised, a month ago, we could have achieved in 2 weeks what will now take us 4. That is because it is exponential. But Johnson didn't listen and now he, and we, are paying the price for his hesitation.

Totally different than in March then.

To be fair, if he'd acted sooner, he would have looked like he'd conceded the point to Starmer. What's a few thousand deaths when you've got a political career to consider?

 

[Secret Chief]

Huh?
Bet you're teetotal!!

I am, but that isn't why I said that of course.

 

[exchemist]

Totally different than in March then.

To be fair, if he'd acted sooner, he would have looked like he'd conceded the point to Starmer. What's a few thousand deaths when you've got a political career to consider?

No, I think it was more that, because of his right-wing ideology, he instinctively reasons like these people you are and I are debating with. You may recall he ridiculed Starmer at PMQs for wanting to destroy the economy ( the BBC did us the service of replaying that, today ) . But now he's been forced into it, by the maths of exponentials - and he's having to do it for twice as long!

 

[exchemist]

Huh?
Bet you're teetotal!!

I'm not but I'm afraid I agree. Pubs are noisy places where people have to raise their voices and spray everyone with germs, and after a few drinks nobody observes the distancing or mask-wearing properly. It's sad because many of them will go out of business this winter, as will many restaurants.

But I can't see any alternative. The only good news is that they will be quick to revive once this is all over. The demand will still be there and so will the buildings, and the people need almost no training.

 

[oldbadger]

I am, but that isn't why I said that of course.

I was only joking!!

 

[oldbadger]

I'm not but I'm afraid I agree. Pubs are noisy places where people have to raise their voices and spray everyone with germs, and after a few drinks nobody observes the distancing or mask-wearing properly. It's sad because many of them will go out of business this winter, as will many restaurants.

But I can't see any alternative. The only good news is that they will be quick to revive once this is all over. The demand will still be there and so will the buildings, and the people need almost no training.

Yeah ... Pubs should close.
Of course.
I was just having fun.

 

[Secret Chief]

I was only joking!!

I thought you might be.

 

[Almighty God]

So, in less than a year, we should have built a lot of new hospitals AND equipped them AND of course trained the thousands of medical staff that would be required. Or should we use a time machine so we can start a few years ago after looking in our national crystal ball? And that's your realistic solution is it?
The UK has created several emergency "hospitals" but as yet the magic wand that would bring the staff required into being has yet to be found. They are either a PR stunt or just somewhere to die.
Currently, the UK has had 1 million cases, in a population of 63 million. And that's WITH the lockdown that we had.

It could be done if it was prioritized, which it hasn't been. How about employing people who are out of work during the lockdown by paying them government money to build hospital infrastructure? This eliminates the financial burden of the lockdown, while also increasing hospital capacity to better prepare for future covid infections. Offer financial incentives to citizens to learn the basic mechanics of treating COVID patients like operating ventilators and administering certain medications, so that more trained medical professionals are available. Of course these things would take time, possibly at least a year or two, but it would be well worth the effort. A much better long-term, sustainable solution than just telling everyone to cower in their homes and do nothing, while hoping that the virus will somehow magically go away.

 

[Secret Chief]

It could be done if it was prioritized, which it hasn't been. How about employing people who are out of work during the lockdown by paying them government money to build hospital infrastructure? This eliminates the financial burden of the lockdown, while also increasing hospital capacity to better prepare for future covid infections. Offer financial incentives to citizens to learn the basic mechanics of treating COVID patients like operating ventilators and administering certain medications, so that more trained medical professionals are available. Of course these things would take time, possibly at least a year or two, but it would be well worth the effort. A much better long-term, sustainable solution than just telling everyone to cower in their homes and do nothing, while hoping that the virus will somehow magically go away.

Not possible though, in the time known.

 

[Almighty God]

Not possible though, in the time known.

It's absolutely possible, and I just gave the logical steps as to how it could happen. Again, it could take several years. But it is the best long-term solution.

 

[Secret Chief]

It's absolutely possible, and I just gave the logical steps as to how it could happen. Again, it could take several years. But it is the best long-term solution.

9 months to train sufficient people to a sufficient level?
Long-term, yes it's possible.

 

[exchemist]

It could be done if it was prioritized, which it hasn't been. How about employing people who are out of work during the lockdown by paying them government money to build hospital infrastructure? This eliminates the financial burden of the lockdown, while also increasing hospital capacity to better prepare for future covid infections. Offer financial incentives to citizens to learn the basic mechanics of treating COVID patients like operating ventilators and administering certain medications, so that more trained medical professionals are available. Of course these things would take time, possibly at least a year or two, but it would be well worth the effort. A much better long-term, sustainable solution than just telling everyone to cower in their homes and do nothing, while hoping that the virus will somehow magically go away.

Yes I agree in some ways and in fact there was a suggestion that grounded airline staff could do paramedic duties: they have the mentality, some of the basic training, and good people skills.

But please don't misrepresent the countermeasures by reductio ad absurdum. The aim is always to keep as much of the economy open as possible without blowing up the health system. It is not to have people "cowering" at home. I deplore such language as it is suggests cowardice, when in fact it is an act of self-sacrifice for the good of others.

One final observation: the type of planned approach you and I have been discussing requires firm national leadership, with a plan, clearly explained to the people, and an effort to get everybody to play their part in a national effort. Because the more people stick to the rules, the shorter and less draconian the countermeasures will need to be.

It is worth asking ourselves whether this leadership has been in evidence, is it not?

 

[Almighty God]

But please don't misrepresent the countermeasures by reductio ad absurdum. The aim is always to keep as much of the economy open as possible without blowing up the health system. It is not to have people "cowering" at home. I deplore such language as it is suggests cowardice, when in fact it is an act of self-sacrifice for the good of others.

I suppose it depends on how we define cowardice. Clearly the societal response to the virus in many places indicates that, on a societal level, we place more importance on collective safety than collective freedom. And I'm not here to say that's right or wrong. It's a subjective call.

 

[exchemist]

I suppose it depends on how we define cowardice. Clearly the societal response to the virus in many places indicates that, on a societal level, we place more importance on collective safety than collective freedom. And I'm not here to say that's right or wrong. It's a subjective call.

So long as you now realise that the "collective safety" you refer to means a society with a functioning health system, then I am happy with that.

 

[Secret Chief]

One in six deaths in England and Wales is now caused by covid, according to the Office for National Statistics.

Just in case there is still anyone making comparisons to bad colds or road traffic fatalities.