Voter dissatisfaction indicates it won't be close

[Pah]

Working for Change

Bogus polls mask landslide in the making


Conventional wisdom suggests this year's presidential election will be close. Practically every poll taken has the race within the margin of error.
At the risk of looking like a fool, I am prepared to respectfully disagree with conventional wisdom to offer the following contrarian perspective: The election will not be close.

Before you sit down to your computer to begin your "Williams, have you lost your mind?" rant, hear me out. I have reached this conclusion for two reasons. My first reason is shaped by what polls cannot see.

When I was in Philadelphia last week, the Philadelphia Inquirer ran a story in the local section that addressed increased voter registration. The final day of registration in Pennsylvania and New Jersey last week brought huge crowds to registration offices. As of September, Philadelphia had received 219,000 applications from either new voters or those who had moved or had been stricken from the rolls. With some 60,000 applications arriving on the final day, it is possible the city's volume this year could break the record of 293,000 applications set in the tension-filled mayoral race of 1983 between Wilson Goode and Frank Rizzo.

This trend of increased voter registration is replicated, in particular, in a majority of the battleground states.

According to the New York Times, voter registration campaigns in heavily Democratic areas have added tens of thousands of new voters to the rolls in the swing states of Ohio and Florida, a surge that far exceeds the efforts of Republicans in both states.

The analysis by the Times of county-by-county data shows that in Democratic areas of Ohio -- primarily low-income and minority neighborhoods -- new registrations since January have risen 250 percent over the same period in 2000.

In comparison, new registrations have increased just 25 percent in Republican areas. A similar pattern is apparent in Florida: In the strongest Democratic areas, the pace of new registration is 60 percent higher than in 2000, while it has risen just 12 percent in the heaviest Republican areas.

Project Vote says it has registered 147,000 new voters in Ohio. Americans Coming Together said that, together with allied groups that are part of America Votes, it had registered 300,000 new voters. In New Mexico, the Secretary of State's office reports that since May voter registration has jumped from approximately 958,000 to a little more than 1 million, possibly all new registrants.

Those younger than 30 who are increasingly concerned about a potential draft are also registering in increased numbers.

These new registrants are not considered in most polling. A growing number of young people use cell phones as their primary phone number. This further diminishes the possibility that their support for either candidate would be reflected in polling data. Thus, they are the great unknown in this election.

My second reason, if history is any barometer, is that when incumbent presidents seek re-election, it is a referendum on the previous four years. Since 1932, 11 incumbent presidents have sought re-election; with the possible exception of 1948 and 1976, none of the races has been close.

When we want to keep a president, we keep him; Roosevelt, Eisenhower, Johnson, Nixon, Reagan and Clinton are prime examples. Likewise, when we want him out, he's out: Hoover, Carter and Bush 41.

More and more this race is shaping up like 1980. That race remained close until the last few weeks, when voters found a comfort level with then-challenger Ronald Reagan that allowed them to oust President Carter.

It difficult for me to believe the race is as close as the polls indicate, especially when one considers that 56 percent of the electorate feels the country is headed in the wrong direction. Moreover, it has been 16 months since 50 percent felt we were headed in the right direction.

I don't believe we will be in court discussing hanging, dimpled or pregnant chads on Nov. 3.

Well, it's prophetic. Not long before we see if Mr. Williams is correct.

-pah-

 

[Green Gaia]

Wow.. I hope so.

 

[Jaymes]

There is a light at the end of the tunnel... I hope. Let's hope this isn't just wishful thinking.

 

[Pah]

There is a light at the end of the tunnel... I hope. Let's hope this isn't just wishful thinking.

Just hoping that bright light isn't the headlights of a train!

-pah-

 

[Faust]

I'm reminded of Adilie Stevenson's bid for the presidency when a supporter on a college campus shouted "The thinking people of this country are behind you" and Mr. Stevenson shot back without so much as a pause " Thats not enough, I need a majority"

 

[linwood]

I'm reminded of Adilie Stevenson's bid for the presidency when a supporter on a college campus shouted "The thinking people of this country are behind you" and Mr. Stevenson shot back without so much as a pause " Thats not enough, I need a majority"

hehehe..I love that.
Is that fact or urban legend?

Doesn`t really matter to me it`s truth either way.

 

[Sunstone]

hehehe..I love that.
Is that fact or urban legend?

Doesn`t really matter to me it`s truth either way.

I've seen it quoted several times in scholarly sources -- if it's an urban legend then it has the scholars fooled, because they think it happened.

 

[Faust]

Fact,

Don't ya love it?

 

[Sunstone]

The more I think about William's argument, the more I wonder if he doesn't have a point. Voter dissatisfaction with the course of the country is just too darn high!

 

[linwood]

Fact,

Don't ya love it?

Yes I do..thanks for that little tidbit Faust.

The more I think about William's argument, the more I wonder if he doesn't have a point. Voter dissatisfaction with the course of the country is just too darn high!

Well it may be wishful thinking but as I was hearing about all the broken records across the country for voters registration I was wondering what it all meant.

Would people who hadn`t cared before suddenly care enough to support Bush or was it people who hadn`t cared before are now worried about where Bush has taken us that they want to change it.

The thing to think abot is all the polls that say this race is neck and neck were taken from people who were already registered to vote .
These new registrations hadn`t had enough to time in the system to have been considered for these polls.

If these new registers are in a majority liberal then that will throw the polls way off.

 

[Sunstone]

It's a good thing there are only a couple of weeks left before the election...This thing is getting suspenseful!

 

[standing_on_one_foot]

Hmm...well, I really don't know how things will go...where I live people are pretty conservitive as a rule, so it's hard for me to tell.

 

[Faust]

Remember that polls are conducted over land based phones, and that has all kinds of "what ifs?" attached to it. Professionals, young people. I just wonder how that might affect the real numbers?

 

[Sunstone]

I don't want to rain on all this optimism (in the Kerry camp), because I'm in the Kerry camp too. But I just now recalled that I heard a similar story about four years ago how the election might be decided by all the people who were registering at the last minute. And of course, it wasn't decided by them after all. I wonder if the media doesn't just re-run the same stories every four years? Yes, I'm cynical!