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War or not?
- Thread starter Nimos
- Start date
He says at 50 second mark, "We also will not send troops in to fight in Ukraine, but we will continue to support the Ukrainian people." So the answer is no, we won't go into war. But will Russia attack? Probably.
Nimos
Well-Known Member
Sorry, I didn't mean if the US will attack, should have made that more clear. Simply if Russia will attack Ukraine in a "full" scale war within the next couple of days?
Okay, I changed my vote to yes then. Chances seem high that they will. I'm trying to imagine what Trump's response would be if he were president still. I doubt he'd be issuing any warnings to Russia. He'd probably just be making excuses for them, or saying Ukraine deserves it or something. Glad we don't have to deal with that anymore, at least for now.
Nimos
Well-Known Member
He did tweet apparently
“Good luck to Biden in dealing with President Putin — don’t fall asleep during the meeting, and please give him my warmest regards!” Trump said in an emailed statement.
Trump nicknamed Biden “Sleepy Joe” during last year’s presidential campaign and repeatedly claimed he was in mental decline.
I'll quibble over full scale. They appear to be cyber attacking all out now. So I answered yes but really wanted a choice between yes and no.
Putin has put himself in a box. If he pulls back, he's seen as having failed and a weak leader. If he attacks, he'll set off a chain of reprisals. And he can't just sit there forever.
Based on a fundamental psychological kinship with Trump who went all in to steal the election, I think the odds are he'll go all in to conquer Ukraine.
Putin has put himself in a box. If he pulls back, he's seen as having failed and a weak leader. If he attacks, he'll set off a chain of reprisals. And he can't just sit there forever.
Based on a fundamental psychological kinship with Trump who went all in to steal the election, I think the odds are he'll go all in to conquer Ukraine.
A few days ago I thought Putin was too smart to invade. I now think he has committed too much and will attack once the Olympics is over. How far he will go, all to the border of Poland, I'm not sure. He might just occupy a large portion of Ukraine, and Kiev.
I think two huge problems for Putin, Stalingrad and Kursk. Kiev has a population of 3 million people and Russian troops trying to occupy the city will be problematic, and perhaps a meat grinder like Stalingrad, and even the Kiev uprising against the Germans in 1943 by the Ukraine people. If anything it will cause a great deal of economic chaos in Europe and even the USA, and that will be Putin's war against the West. I don't see how it gets resolved until Putin dies, and there is a shift in policy like when Stalin died.
I just don't see any long term benefit for Putin by this. It's crazy. Maybe his mental stability is off.
I think two huge problems for Putin, Stalingrad and Kursk. Kiev has a population of 3 million people and Russian troops trying to occupy the city will be problematic, and perhaps a meat grinder like Stalingrad, and even the Kiev uprising against the Germans in 1943 by the Ukraine people. If anything it will cause a great deal of economic chaos in Europe and even the USA, and that will be Putin's war against the West. I don't see how it gets resolved until Putin dies, and there is a shift in policy like when Stalin died.
I just don't see any long term benefit for Putin by this. It's crazy. Maybe his mental stability is off.
If Putin does invade I suspect there is going to be a huge spike in costs, especially energy costs even in the USA. It's a global market and Russia will be off the grid, so to speak. The needs of Europe's energy needs will have to be absorbed by other global market supplies.
I heard a military expert and analyst say that if NATO countries in Europe feel threatened by Russia, in that they will show signs of invading Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Moldova then it could escalate. Putin is a dictator, not an elected leader, so we can't really trust his thinking.
Nimos
Well-Known Member
I think that would be in the future if anything, but in that case it would be WW3 I think. If he invade Ukraine, my guess is that it will be a long and bloody war, just think about how long some of the "smaller" wars have been and Ukraine is a huge country, almost twice the size of Poland from what I can see. Besides that, I don't get the impression that the spirit of the Ukrainian people is "broken" so I think they will fight back big time, which could escalate it even more, because if Putin decide to attack, I doubt he is willing to go away with anything but a victory.
I don't think so. Of course, it's hard to truly predict, since they could decide to invade. But to what purpose? The Ukrainians will fight back, and they'll be getting weapons and resources from the West, even if NATO doesn't send in troops to help defend Ukraine.
It would likely be a bloodbath, and I don't think it would be an easy Russian victory - and it might not even be a victory.
Putin may ultimately stand down this time. However, if and when NATO ever votes to admit Ukraine as a member, then this may come up again. At this point, it would require unanimous approval of all NATO members to admit Ukraine, and considering what's going on, there might be one or two countries which would veto the idea.
Nimos
Well-Known Member
Lets assume that Russia attacks and lose, then my guess is that Ukraine will be in a fairly good position to be accepted into NATO, which Putin simply can't allow, so I really don't think losing is an option for him. Neither political nor personally, I don't think he would "run" away with his head between the legs.
Putin has amassed the bulk of the Russian army, 190,000 troops, at the Ukraine border. The German 6th army that was encircled at Stalingrad numbered 250,000. They were chewed up. Only 90,000 were taken prisoner, and of them only about 5000 survived the captivity.
I think the one thing Russia would have to worry about if the war goes on and on is Ukraine attracting mercenaries from all over the world who will fight Russia as agents of Ukraine. That would mirror another Afghanistan meat grinder that Russian citizens will not tolerate for long, especially as the war needs more money and the Russian economy takes more hits. China will only back a winner.
Of course the huge dilemma with an unstable Putin is the threat of nuclear war. If Putin dies politically I can see him want to take the planet with him.
Nimos
Well-Known Member
I have no clue what that man can/will do or not do. But I completely agree, Putin need a short war that's for sure, because economically in the long run it would be rough for Russia and even afterwards the country is going to face a hard time even if he win I think.
Heyo
Veteran Member
Too hard to answer. It will depend on the West's willingness to commit to the (informal) agreement that NATO will not expand further East (which we have broken a few times now).
Putin could settle on such a contract but I see no movement in that direction.
The other question is how the West will react if Putin annexes Ukraine. An outright war would be devastating to all participants (except the military-industrial complex). And it seems as even the US government isn't wanting that option.
If the West (that is mostly Europe) will react with lesser sanctions, the Invasion will be good for Putin.
If the West goes for full on sanctions on all fronts, it will be expensive (too expensive) for Putin, very expensive for Europe and the US will profit.
So, the war is not between Russia and the West but between Europe and the US. Putin will sit and wait who wins that war and make his move accordingly.
amorphous_constellation
Well-Known Member
They consider us arming the ukranians a provocation, from what I can tell. And to anyone with the position that we should give 'warnings,' or any kind of serious pushback against russia, seeing that russia considers some of these things as serious provocations, well I ask you then, do you have a fallout shelter you want to share? If you do, then maybe you can drag me onto your side of the issue. Otherwise, we should keep our clunky rhetoric and influence way away from this issue
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