What are the chances the Iraqi insurgency will win?

[Sunstone]

What are the chances the Iraqi insurgency will win? For the purposes of this poll, winning means that the insurgency prevents a stable government from being installed in Iraq. What do you think are their chances of winning?

 

[anders]

Insurgent: "rising against established authority". So, the insurgents are the invaders. And they will lose and will have to get out, like from Vietnam. I agree that the US insurgence "prevents a stable government from being installed in Iraq", but I haven't voted.

 

[Sunstone]

Insurgent: "rising against established authority". So, the insurgents are the invaders. And they will lose and will have to get out, like from Vietnam. I agree that the US insurgence "prevents a stable government from being installed in Iraq", but I haven't voted.

That's a valuable point of view, Anders (frubals to you, even though I partly disagree with you), but solely for the purposes of this poll, let's consider the word "insurgent" to mean the armed opposition to the current (American led) occupation.

 

[Faminedynasty]

I think that American defeat is inevitable. If a stable government is established it is doubtful that it will be one sympathetic to American "interests." The reality is that we are fighting an unjust war justified with lies in their country and they will fight for a thousand years against us and anything that resembles our goals. These elections of ours have the potential to lead to a bloody and horrific civil war, which on top of the deaths of our servicemen and countless thousands of women and children serves as a reminder as to why you do not break the most fundamental of internation laws by invading a sovereign nation--even if you don't like them--unless it is a matter of legitamate defense. This was has nothing to do with defending the United States, nor with the war on terrorism, it is a war of agression which cannot be won.

 

[Mr Spinkles]

winning means that the insurgency prevents a stable government from being installed in Iraq.

For how long?

 

[Sunstone]

For how long?

Long enough to destroy the political will of the Americans to wage war to establish a stable government. In other words, long enough that the Americans leave without a stable government in place.

 

[Mr Spinkles]

Long enough to destroy the political will of the Americans to wage war to establish a stable government. In other words, long enough that the Americans leave without a stable government in place.

I was going to say...it seems unlikely that the insurgents will keep Iraq unstable forever. Good question.

At this point, I have no idea. I've already misjudged a lot of things regarding the issue of Iraq, and a lot of things remain to be seen.

 

[No*s]

I voted for the insurgency to win. I think we will establish a "stable" government, but when we leave, things will change either fast or gradually until it's unrecognizable. It is, after all, a government alien to the culture imposed by an outside force. I just hope that the government also changes the nature of the insurgency...

 

[Sunstone]

I've already misjudged a lot of things regarding the issue of Iraq, and a lot of things remain to be seen.

I hate that we went in there, but now that we're there, I think it would be worse if we left the country to a civil war. The situation sucks.

 

[Yerda]

What will insurgents win when destabilising Iraq exactly?

 

[No*s]

What will insurgents win when destabilising Iraq exactly?

Like any other political group, they want power. If they can do that, they can institute their own political system in place of the one we're building. It's an old song and dance that.

 

[Mister Emu]

They have no chance of winning, I think Bush is going to keep the troops in there until the Iraqi government is on its feet.

 

[Jaymes]

How do you figure they have no chance, Mr. Emu? From what I understand, they're giving our troops hell. Morale and soldiers aren't exactly infinite.

 

[Yerda]

Like any other political group, they want power. If they can do that, they can institute their own political system in place of the one we're building. It's an old song and dance that.

And their political system will be centered around instability?

Imagine, their own political system in THEIR country. I'm glad us Scots were eventually blackmailed into union, I don't think I could tolerate a free, independant republic.

 

[No*s]

And their political system will be centered around instability?

Imagine, their own political system in THEIR country. I'm glad us Scots were eventually blackmailed into union, I don't think I could tolerate a free, independant republic.

I never said they wanted an unstable system...

 

[Faminedynasty]

What will insurgents win when destabilising Iraq exactly?

Independence. Independence from the rule of foreign occupiers and infidels. That's the word on the street anyway.
They view whatever government we install as an extension of our rule over them, and therefore as illegitamate.

 

[Godless Dave]

For the purposes of this poll, winning means that the insurgency prevents a stable government from being installed in Iraq. What do you think are their chances of winning?

I don't think that's their goal. I think their goal is to prevent a government from being installed by a foreign power in Iraq. Most of the insurgents want a stable government in Iraq, they just want it installed by Iraqis and not the US. I also suspect there are several differnt insurgent groups with very different ideas about what kind of government they want.

 

[Godless Dave]

Independence. Independence from the rule of foreign occupiers and infidels. That's the word on the street anyway.
They view whatever government we install as an extension of our rule over them, and therefore as illegitamate.

Now why would they think that? Just because that's what the British and Turks did in Iraq, and just because that's what we did in Iran, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, they assume that's what we and the British want to do now in Iraq. I guess they hate freedom!</sarcasm and lots of it>

 

[painted wolf]

as long as people question the legitamacy of the 'established government' there will be insurgents in Iraq... and people will question as long as the US has its fingers in thier pie... wich will be as long as they can.

wa:do

 

[Dr. Nosophoros]

The way I see it, they have already won, but I voted better than average.
The insurgency in Iraq is an insurgency against an invading and occupying army- the U.S. Sure, there were Iraqis that were happy that Saddam was taken out of power, but I'm guessing most would have been more than happy to see us leave after we accomplished our goal of destroying the "threat" of Saddam. There are groups that hated each other for years before our invasion that have come together to fight against the U.S., they seem to hate our occupation more than they hate each other. The only destabilizing that they seem to be doing is the destabilizing of democracy within the U.S. administration's definition of democracy which seems to be only a government that is compatible to what our U.S. government wants. True democracy? Get out and let them choose what democracy is for themselves.