What are the possible causes for the increase in crime?

[Stevicus]

I've been hearing and reading about crime stats going up this year, such as stories like this:

How 5 police departments are tackling violent crime surge in US - ABC News (go.com)

Crime in Atlanta: Homicides are up nearly 60 percent in 2021 (ajc.com)

2021 Violent Crime in LA Outpaces Recent Years – NBC Los Angeles

HPD: 35% increase in homicides in 2021 compared to 2020 | khou.com

Police chiefs confront a surge of gun violence -- and it's not even summer - CNN

Even here in Tucson, we've been outpacing the murder rate compared to this time last year.

DIGGING DEEPER: Tucson sees surge in homicides (kvoa.com)
Police: Man shot dead near South Tucson grocery store (kgun9.com)

There was also a shooting at a Florida supermarket yesterday: Sheriff: Florida supermarket shooter made Facebook threats (kold.com)

The articles note that many police agencies are lagging behind on reporting crime stats, so there are still some missing pieces.

But what do you think is happening here? Is it a backlash against the police over high-profile police killings? Is it because of defunding the police? Part of the issue here locally is that there are fewer police on patrol. I think they may also be having a recruitment problem.

It's also become a political issue, unfortunately.

What are the possible solutions? I know some might be tempted to say "ban guns," but that's not likely to happen, due to the political issues. But what other things could be done? Some might argue that society is to blame, so are there improvements we can make to our society to reduce crime? Or are we better off just locking up criminals and throwing away the key?

 

[Quagmire]

I expect that part of the reason is that drug dealers arent making the kind of money they were before the pandemic. Given how many people are out of work there just isn't the cash flow that they're used to be and recreational drug use is at a low.

So, the criminal element has had to turn to other means to make thier money: carjacking, burglary, armed robbery.

I would also expect thst competition between dealers for whatever drug market is left has probably heated up quite a bit too.

 

[crossfire]

I would venture to think that the social distancing might have something to do with it. It's gotta be tough on the extraverts.

 

[Lyndon]

increased poverty, increased gun sales

 

[Nimos]

What are the possible solutions? I know some might be tempted to say "ban guns," but that's not likely to happen, due to the political issues. But what other things could be done? Some might argue that society is to blame, so are there improvements we can make to our society to reduce crime? Or are we better off just locking up criminals and throwing away the key?

Inequality (poverty) is a likely explanation.

 

[74x12]

I've been hearing and reading about crime stats going up this year, such as stories like this:

How 5 police departments are tackling violent crime surge in US - ABC News (go.com)

Crime in Atlanta: Homicides are up nearly 60 percent in 2021 (ajc.com)

2021 Violent Crime in LA Outpaces Recent Years – NBC Los Angeles

HPD: 35% increase in homicides in 2021 compared to 2020 | khou.com

Police chiefs confront a surge of gun violence -- and it's not even summer - CNN

Even here in Tucson, we've been outpacing the murder rate compared to this time last year.

DIGGING DEEPER: Tucson sees surge in homicides (kvoa.com)
Police: Man shot dead near South Tucson grocery store (kgun9.com)

There was also a shooting at a Florida supermarket yesterday: Sheriff: Florida supermarket shooter made Facebook threats (kold.com)

The articles note that many police agencies are lagging behind on reporting crime stats, so there are still some missing pieces.

But what do you think is happening here? Is it a backlash against the police over high-profile police killings? Is it because of defunding the police? Part of the issue here locally is that there are fewer police on patrol. I think they may also be having a recruitment problem.

It's also become a political issue, unfortunately.

What are the possible solutions? I know some might be tempted to say "ban guns," but that's not likely to happen, due to the political issues. But what other things could be done? Some might argue that society is to blame, so are there improvements we can make to our society to reduce crime? Or are we better off just locking up criminals and throwing away the key?

I think the lock down is a possible cause. People are forced to stay home and for some time they took away their "bread and circuses" as the ancient Romans put it. That is you take their entertainment. Night clubs closed, no professional sports etc. Then gang member types have nothing to do. So they get in trouble.

 

[74x12]

I forgot to mention a lot of people including gang member types couldn't even work because the lock downs so that's asking for trouble.

 

[Lyndon]

One possible cause of the 2020 murder increase: More guns

 

[Stevicus]

I forgot to mention a lot of people including gang member types couldn't even work because the lock downs so that's asking for trouble.

Do gang members even work?

 

[Dave Watchman]

The articles note that many police agencies are lagging behind on reporting crime stats, so there are still some missing pieces.

This.

There's too many of them to keep track of.

Where I live a 20 year old guy ran over a family of five. Everyone said he was a nice guy. The 9 year old boy woke up in the hospital to learn that his Grandmother, Mother, Father and 14 year old sister were all dead.

Hate Wiped Away A Muslim-Canadian Family. Here's How Friends Want Them Remembered

The 14 year old girl in Fargo was riding her skateboard on her way to her Mother's house at 7:00 AM in a mall parking lot. Beaten and stabbed 20 times. A garbage truck driver saw a man kneeling over her body pinching her nose with his hand over her mouth. He was trying to make sure she was suffocated.

He goes into a Walmart to change his blood soaked clothes. The cops told him they think he killed the girl, he's like "you mean she's still alive? But he did it. He kept enough oxygen from her brain to kill her.

He didn't get any money, or any phone. Like the guy in the Dodge Ram, it wasn't for money.

Father says Fargo stabbing victim, 14, unlikely to survive; judge sets $1M bail for suspect | Duluth News Tribune

My answer is that we are at the end.

I know what they're going to say, "there's always been crime. "We had murders in the 50's, and 60's and 70's.
Look at what Charlie Manson did, look at the Hillside Strangler. But the frequency and severity of that type of negative spirit has increased.

The Two Witnesses, the Bible and the Holy Spirit, are laying dead in the street of the Great City for 3.5 days which means we don't have long to go to see if my read is right on this.

1335 days from the "darkened sun means that late summer draweth nigh.

Don't go around tonight, for it's bound to take your life.

There' a bad moon on the rise.

Peaceful Sabbath.

 

[Mock Turtle]

I know what they're going to say, "there's always been crime. "We had murders in the 50's, and 60's and 70's.

And in every other decade - you are just being selective as to which crimes you see as worse perhaps. So which decade, century, or millennia would you prefer to have lived, and in which country?

 

[Dave Watchman]

And in every other decade - you are just being selective as to which crimes you see as worse perhaps. So which decade, century, or millennia would you prefer to have lived, and in which country?

I'm not really picking on a year, or maybe I am.

I guess that I'm fairly sure where we are here now.

I would stick with the USA and Canada.

I was surprised that we are not even in the top ten bad places, but that Trinidad was.

My friend is always saying he wants to go back to the Island.

Venezuela is the worst.

1. Venezuela (84.36)
2. Papua New Guinea (80.04)
3. South Africa (77.29)
4. Afghanistan (76.97)
5. Honduras (76.65)
6. Trinidad and Tobago (72.43)
7. Brazil (68.31)
8. Guyana (68.15)
9. El Salvador (67.84)
10. Syria (67.42)

Crime Rate By Country 2021

I knew 2020 would be bad, I was saying it to people in 2017. That it had to begin specifically in January. Somebody here caught me on new years day and said well it's January 2020 Dave, we're still here. Nothing happened. I said the month's not over yet.

Massive 1-Year Rise In Homicide Rates Collided With The Pandemic In 2020

January 6, 2021 5:00 AM ET

Last year, an alarming increase in homicides left communities — often in lockdown — reeling as officials searched for answers. That was evident at lots of news conferences as police officials and mayors in Chicago, Los Angeles and New York City rolled out dire news.

At the end of 2020, Chicago police reported more than 750 murders, a jump of more than 50% compared with 2019. By mid-December, Los Angeles saw a 30% increase over the previous year with 322 homicides. There were 437 homicides in New York City by Dec. 20, nearly 40% more than the previous year.

New Orleans-based data consultant Jeff Asher studied crime rates in more than 50 cities and says the crime spikes aren't just happening in big cities. With the numbers of homicides spiking in many places, Asher expects the final statistics for 2020 to tell a startlingly grim story.

"We're going to see, historically, the largest one-year rise in murder that we've ever seen," he says.

Asher says it has been more than a half-century since the country saw a year-to-year murder rate that jumped nearly 13%.

Massive 1-Year Rise In Homicide Rates Collided With The Pandemic In 2020​

The largest one-year rise in murder that we've ever seen," he says.

Ever.

Peaceful Sabbath.

 

[Kooky]

I forgot to mention a lot of people including gang member types couldn't even work because the lock downs so that's asking for trouble.

What's a "gang member type" and how do you distinguish them from a non-"gangmember type" of person?

 

[Mock Turtle]

I'm not really picking on a year, or maybe I am.

I guess that I'm fairly sure where we are here now.

I would stick with the USA and Canada.

I was surprised that we are not even in the top ten bad places, but that Trinidad was.

My friend is always saying he wants to go back to the Island.

Venezuela is the worst.

1. Venezuela (84.36)
2. Papua New Guinea (80.04)
3. South Africa (77.29)
4. Afghanistan (76.97)
5. Honduras (76.65)
6. Trinidad and Tobago (72.43)
7. Brazil (68.31)
8. Guyana (68.15)
9. El Salvador (67.84)
10. Syria (67.42)

Crime Rate By Country 2021

I knew 2020 would be bad, I was saying it to people in 2017. That it had to begin specifically in January. Somebody here caught me on new years day and said well it's January 2020 Dave, we're still here. Nothing happened. I said the month's not over yet.

Massive 1-Year Rise In Homicide Rates Collided With The Pandemic In 2020

January 6, 2021 5:00 AM ET

Last year, an alarming increase in homicides left communities — often in lockdown — reeling as officials searched for answers. That was evident at lots of news conferences as police officials and mayors in Chicago, Los Angeles and New York City rolled out dire news.

At the end of 2020, Chicago police reported more than 750 murders, a jump of more than 50% compared with 2019. By mid-December, Los Angeles saw a 30% increase over the previous year with 322 homicides. There were 437 homicides in New York City by Dec. 20, nearly 40% more than the previous year.

New Orleans-based data consultant Jeff Asher studied crime rates in more than 50 cities and says the crime spikes aren't just happening in big cities. With the numbers of homicides spiking in many places, Asher expects the final statistics for 2020 to tell a startlingly grim story.

"We're going to see, historically, the largest one-year rise in murder that we've ever seen," he says.

Asher says it has been more than a half-century since the country saw a year-to-year murder rate that jumped nearly 13%.

Massive 1-Year Rise In Homicide Rates Collided With The Pandemic In 2020​

The largest one-year rise in murder that we've ever seen," he says.

Ever.

Peaceful Sabbath.

I still don't see any long-term trends for increasing crime in most countries, and one would expect to see decreases in many and increases in others. Which is what we see. Violent crime has decreased in the USA over the past 25 years according to the first article.

 

[Dave Watchman]

Violent crime has decreased in the USA over the past 25 years according to the first article.

Good read of the article.

I saw that too.

"The crime rate in the United States is 47.70. The violent crime rate in the United States has decreased sharply over the past 25 years. Crimes rates vary significantly between the states, with states with such as Alaska and Tennessee experiencing much higher crime rates than states such as Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont.​

I've read that some crimes are down. Like with stores doing curbside and online sales, shoplifting is down.

It might be like the OP says "The articles note that many police agencies are lagging behind on reporting crime stats, so there are still some missing pieces.

I keep finding these types of articles.

Maybe they should start a worldometer page for crime, like they did for coronavirus separated by country.

Maybe CNN is trying to do clickbait now that Trump is gone and their ratings are tanking.

The US saw significant crime rise across major cities in 2020. And it's not letting up
By Emma Tucker and Peter Nickeas, CNN

Updated 6:52 PM ET, Sat April 3, 2021

(CNN)Major American cities saw a 33% increase in homicides last year as a pandemic swept across the country, millions of people joined protests against racial injustice and police brutality, and the economy collapsed under the weight of the pandemic — a crime surge that has continued into the first quarter of this year.

Sixty-three of the 66 largest police jurisdictions saw increases in at least one category of violent crimes in 2020, which include homicide, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault, according to a report produced by the Major Cities Chiefs Association. Baltimore City, Baltimore County and Raleigh, North Carolina, did not report increases in any of the violent crime categories.
US crime rise not letting up in major cities - CNN​

Peaceful Sabbath.

 

[Kooky]

Maybe CNN is trying to do clickbait now that Trump is gone and their ratings are tanking.

I strongly doubt this has anything to do with Trump.

 

[Stevicus]

Violent crime has decreased in the USA over the past 25 years according to the first article.

Yes, this is true. Compared to the major crime waves which took off in the 70s, 80s, and early 90s, the violent crime rate has dropped significantly. But it's still noteworthy that the trend seems to be reversing over the past year, and violent crime is ticking up again.

One thing that should be noted is that, concurrent with the drop in crime (which started around the mid 1990s) was a tougher societal attitude on crime. During the 80s, neighborhood watch programs were popping up all over the country. Active measures against crime were being taken - things that are ubiquitous nowadays but didn't really exist much back in the day. Things like shoplifting detectors, video surveillance, motion sensors, alarms, more security guards, and so on.

The cops were also given more equipment, personnel, and more discretionary authority. Qualified immunity was concocted in 1982. Having tougher, militarized cops with a relatively free hand eventually had the effect of lowering crime, but this has also had a downside to it, as we've seen in recent years of highly publicized police killings.

We've also had a higher rate of incarceration, which has also fed a burgeoning private corrections industry.

I'd like to think that we could employ other methods of fighting crime other than sending in armed goon squads to rough people up and send them to prison. Others might argue that the only way to fight barbarians is to be just as barbaric as they are, but there are drawbacks with that approach as well.

 

[74x12]

Do gang members even work?

Some do.

What's a "gang member type" and how do you distinguish them from a non-"gangmember type" of person?

Is this relevant?

 

[Kooky]

Is this relevant?

Let's just say I find it difficult to parse whom you are talking about in the post I quoted.

 

[Shaul]

One reason could be the riots from Leftist groups like BLM and the hobbling and defund of police forces.