Who are you backing now? (US pres '16)

[MrMrdevincamus]

*sigh* Ah, well. I still support Mr. Sanders, but no longer expect him to even be in the running by the time my state primary comes along in June.

We may actually be important to the Republican race, interestingly. We usually aren't important to anything. But of course I won't be voting for any of those clowns. Since undeclared voters get to choose in California, I did vote in a Republican primary once before, genuinely wanting Romney on the ticket over the tea party loons and caring more about that than the shoo-in vote for Obama.

Sanders has a good heart but there are international wolves out that devour good hearts for breakfast. Obama is a lamb and we have and are paying the price for his meekness. In a prefect world I would not be forced to choose a hard core Trump to rebuild the USAs base economic system. I am concerned that twenty years plus of lop sided trade agreements, NAFTAidis and other suicidal policies have harmed the USA nearly to the point of no return. Today our nation has slid from the worlds most prolific and profitable manufacturing and industrial based nation that produced a wide progressive thriving middle class to a nation of angry, for all intensive purposes mostly broke, but expert hamburger flippers that have little hope that the economic picture will improve. Trump is my last hope for our nation to break out of the wall street/politically created depression that we find ourselves in.

 

[robocop (actually)]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_delegate_count.html
1228 947 1772

Bernie Sanders needs 57.93% of the remaining regular delegates to have more regular delegates.
Hillary Clinton needs 42.07%

Also, 475/1772=26.81% which is how much percent of the remaining votes are in California.
If Bernie Sanders won California, Hillary Clinton would need 58.56% and Bernie Sanders would need 41.44%. Hillary Clinton is winning in California polls by 47-38 and

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_delegate_count.html
739 465 143 944

739+x*944>465+143+(1-x)*944
944+143+465-739

Of the Republican delegates, Donald Trump needs 43.06% to get 50%.
Ted Cruz needs 72.08%.
John Kasich would have to have 171.29%.

third party candidates at www.politics1.com .

 

[robocop (actually)]

Correction:

739+x*944=465+166+143+9+8+4+1+1+1+(1-x)*944
53.13% for Donald Trump
465+x*944=739+166+143+9+8+4+1+1+1+(1-x)*944
82.15% for Ted Cruz
143+x*944=465+166+739+9+8+4+1+1+1+(1-x)*944
116.26% for John Kasich.

Not a correction but an update:
1747 1243 975
57.67% for Bernie Sanders and 42.33% for Hillary Clinton.

 

[robocop (actually)]

If today Bernie Sanders won California but Hillary Clinton won New York and Pennsylvania,

the math is
1243+247+189 975+475 1747-247-189-475

1679 1450 836
1679 +x*836=1450+(1-x)*836

which means Hillary would need 36.30% of the regular delegates and Bernie Sanders would need 63.70%.

 

[robocop (actually)]

I don't want to stay up tomorrow night so here are all the possible results:
There are 86 Democrat regular and 42 Republican delegates.
If Bernie Sanders wins Wisconsin it is a 45.66/55.34lead for Hillary Clinton among regular delegates.
If Hillary Clinton wins Wisconsin it is a 39.43 60.57 lead for Hillary Clinton among regular delegates.

A quick check is that these numbers average to what they were before and add to 100%.

Now I will do the Republicans.

 

[robocop (actually)]

Based on http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delegate-count-tracker (because some websites differ very slightly,
If Donald Trump wins Wisconsin they each need: 51.33% for Donald Trump 86.29% for Ted Cruz and 121.81% for John Kasich to get 50%.
If Ted Cruz wins "Winsconsin" they each need: 55.99% for Donald Trump 81.63% for Ted Cruz and 121.81% for John Kasich.
If John Kasich wins Wisconsin they each need: 55.99% for Donald Trump and 86.29% for Ted Cruz and 117.15% for John Kasich.

A quick check is that each number appears twice.

 

[robocop (actually)]

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump both won New York. I will have the delegate math later once they have all been given. Looks like its over, personally, but nobody knows for sure.

 

[robocop (actually)]

Alright, I triple checked my work.
Donald Trump needs 57.15% of the remaining delegates to get a majority.
Ted Cruz needs 96.12%!
And John Kasich, he needs 152.25%.

As for regular delegates in the Democratic party,
Hillary Clinton needs 40.12% and Bernie Sanders needs 59.88%.

Do you think it's in the can?

 

[Politesse]

Probably...

War criminal or weirdly racist billionaire/lizard - sounds like a normal US election cycle!

 

[robocop (actually)]

On the Dem side it's 33.61%/66.38% and on the Rep side Donald Trump needs 50.41% of the remaining delegates, simply put.

 

[robocop (actually)]

Hillary needs 34.34% of the remaining delegates. However, if Bernie Sanders won California today, he'd need 29.49% of the rest!

 

[robocop (actually)]

Oh! They are all proportional. Never mind. Just Hillary needs 34.34% of the remaining regular delegates to win in regular delegates.